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Post by riogrande on Aug 8, 2012 15:05:34 GMT -8
I think Jason has a very valid point, we can substitute capital and technology for part of the process. But we all may well be forced to become Modelers again, and do the painstaking assembly ourselves. Expending effort, just like real modelers like Andy do now. Instead of just signing the credit card receipt on the assembled and painted stuff from China. Like the spoiled collectors like me do now. Bill Well, others may be forced to be modelers again, but I've collected enough trains that I should need to be a modeler in the old fashioned terms, and thats fine with me. I'll use my efforts to build benchwork, wiring, scenery and all the other stuff. People talk like there isn't enough to do when it comes to building a model railroad. Anyway, there is enough existing stock to keep me buying and "collecting" for a few more years before there is nothing left at the train shows to buy and force people to "model" again. |
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Post by alco539 on Aug 8, 2012 16:06:27 GMT -8
Paul (paulcutleriii),
Thank you for the Atlas link about Mr.Wai Shing Ting of Sanda Kan. I've read about the Sanda Kan sale to Kader before. However, now I have a better picture of how the train market in China started. Being from Maryland near Baltimore, the former home of Life-Like trains. I don't know if I should be proud or lament the fact they started the "China thing". I wish Lifoam Industries still owned Life-Like, but I guess I shouldn't go there.
Also, I wonder how he would feel about Kader "cutting off" supplying some of his old customers. I guess it comes down to "don't take it personal, it's just business".
Regards Charley.
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pappy
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Post by pappy on Aug 8, 2012 17:17:56 GMT -8
I use the latest cadd programs for a living. Though light years ahead of where we were when I started (in civil engineering) 20 years ago, the projects take longer due to ever increasing client expectations, numbers of alternatives studied, and sustainable design requirements. Sure the cadd programs promise great efficiencies--but design is still design and things don't design themselves. That may be the case in civil engineering but in the tool & die the CAD & CAM software I use makes it easier and faster to design, program, and verify (virtual machine) tooling. It would have taken 10 times longer 10 years ago. That and Faster computers, faster and more accurate machine tools makes it easier for us to compete with China. |
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Post by calzephyr on Aug 8, 2012 17:32:08 GMT -8
Paul (paulcutleriii), Thank you for the Atlas link about Mr.Wai Shing Ting of Sanda Kan. I've read about the Sanda Kan sale to Kader before. However, now I have a better picture of how the train market in China started. Being from Maryland near Baltimore, the former home of Life-Like trains. I don't know if I should be proud or lament the fact they started the "China thing". I wish Lifoam Industries still owned Life-Like, but I guess I shouldn't go there. Also, I wonder how he would feel about Kader "cutting off" supplying some of his old customers. I guess it comes down to "don't take it personal, it's just business". Regards Charley. Charley Many of us feel the same way about Lifelike! I purchased a lot of those models from MB Klein that Lifelike was blowing out, mostly undecorated, but great bargains. It is just business and Kader cutting off customers is the way they decided to go into the future. Maybe the tide will turn and they will need additional production to keep them busy. In a way, there has been too many items coming down the production line for all of us to keep up so a break might be a good way for us to get back to kitbashing. Larry |
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Post by rapidotrains on Aug 8, 2012 18:25:47 GMT -8
That may be the case in civil engineering but in the tool & die the CAD & CAM software I use makes it easier and faster to design, program, and verify (virtual machine) tooling. It would have taken 10 times longer 10 years ago. That and Faster computers, faster and more accurate machine tools makes it easier for us to compete with China. Actually, I don't think you'd find many of us manufacturers arguing against that. For tooling, it is certainly possible to be competitive with China. The problem is for assembly. 7 RMB per hour take home pay is actually very good and is more than the average assembly worker's wage. In Dongguan, you can go out for a decent dinner in the factory district for about 30 RMB per person. A cheap dinner (bowl of noodles, pop) will be 10 RMB per person. I eat at nice vegetarian restaurants, where it's more like 50 RMB per person. That's still well under $10. Over here, 7 RMB is a little over a dollar. You can't get a meal anywhere for that price (except maybe Ikea's breakfast). So even with the huge inflation of late, the cost of living and thus the cost of labour is much lower in China. And that is why it is so much cheaper to do assembly and decorating over there. -Jason |
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pappy
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Post by pappy on Aug 9, 2012 3:42:25 GMT -8
The problem is for assembly. I wont argue with that...My comment is on the tooling end of manufacturing which I've been in for over 30 years. The Tool and Die industry has seen big gains in productivity and as long as they keep updated with new tech you can be globally competitive. |
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Post by alco539 on Aug 9, 2012 4:52:49 GMT -8
Good morning folks.
I may have mentioned it before, but I have a "retirement machine shop" in the basement. I'm not a machinist, but have been using machine tools since High School (I'm 56). I have manual machines, standard lathes, three turret (production) lathes and manual milling machines. I'm not a tool and die maker, but know about CNC EDM machines and five axis machining centers (mills), and don't forget Lasers (used for die sinking). I'm not an expert, but I know my way around tools. The machines shops in China seem to be of two types, crude and state of the art. The largest maker of hobby machine tools, is Seig, they make tools for Grizzly, Micro-Mart, etc. . A few years ago they only had one CNC machine. Most work they do, is still done on manual machines. One thing they're not short of is labor. Don't take this statement that their work is not good. CNC doesn't mean a part will be more accurate. A good machinist can often make better parts. An automatic like a B&S screw machine can make N scale wheels faster than a CNC machine. However, there are some jobs that only CNC can do. Have you ever seen a wave guide for microwave transmission made? Impossible to make on a manual tracer.
Anyway, finally my point. As Jason et al have stated, it's not the tool and die work. Which is often produced by someone else (USA) anyway. It's the assembly that cost, adding details takes time.
Why can't a US company design a machine (CNC) to add parts to a body shell, like a circuit board "Pick-and-Play" machine? They have the accuracy to place parts within the tolerance required.
The reason it hasn't happened and won't for awhile is, cost again. You would have to make a lot of trains to make it viable to build a machine like that. Someone will, maybe they are working on it now! Maybe in that cottage industry someone mentioned. Here in Maryland during WWII Fairchild aircraft in Hagerstown, had anybody with a lathe making parts. Rush out and mortgage the house to buy one (I hope you have a big house).
Regards Charley.
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Post by rapidotrains on Aug 9, 2012 9:11:00 GMT -8
Why can't a US company design a machine (CNC) to add parts to a body shell, like a circuit board "Pick-and-Play" machine? They have the accuracy to place parts within the tolerance required. The reason it hasn't happened and won't for awhile is, cost again. You would have to make a lot of trains to make it viable to build a machine like that. Exactly. One of our tooling subcontractors has these huge PCB making machines upstairs. They shake the whole building. They make extremely complex PCBs very quickly and without any involvement from people. Trouble is they are making 500,000 circuit boards, and everything is installed on two planes - basically top and bottom. Custom-making a CNC machine to install parts on 20 different planes on a few thousand FP9A locomotives would send the retail price into the stratosphere. We think nothing of installing grabs on the corners of F-unit noses, but those angles suddenly make a CNC assembly machine that much more complex. -Jason |
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Post by calzephyr on Aug 9, 2012 9:37:28 GMT -8
Why can't a US company design a machine (CNC) to add parts to a body shell, like a circuit board "Pick-and-Play" machine? They have the accuracy to place parts within the tolerance required. The reason it hasn't happened and won't for awhile is, cost again. You would have to make a lot of trains to make it viable to build a machine like that. Exactly. One of our tooling subcontractors has these huge PCB making machines upstairs. They shake the whole building. They make extremely complex PCBs very quickly and without any involvement from people. Trouble is they are making 500,000 circuit boards, and everything is installed on two planes - basically top and bottom. Custom-making a CNC machine to install parts on 20 different planes on a few thousand FP9A locomotives would send the retail price into the stratosphere. We think nothing of installing grabs on the corners of F-unit noses, but those angles suddenly make a CNC assembly machine that much more complex. -Jason Jason Your explanation makes sense that low production items would be more costly to do the CNC setup and the price would be higher for a 5000 unit run. Our industry has been a cottage or garage type of industry for many of the original startups in years past. I thank you for your comments about production problems and situations since your expertise allows you to give us real world information. I am always amazed at CNC production, but that is mostly used for stuffing flat circuit boards in multiple numbers of several hundred thousands. Larry |
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pappy
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Post by pappy on Aug 9, 2012 12:37:06 GMT -8
Just a note on CNC. If you have been to a Machinne Tool show like IMTS in the past few years you would see that most of the machines are CNC. The Machine tool industry has changed alot over the past 10 years and CNC is mainstream. If you dont have newer CNC's it would be hard to compete globaly. I'm not saying you cant have a shop without them but it severly limits your capibilitys.
As far as the screw machines I don't know if they even make the old B&S style anymore. I didnt see one at IMTS 2 years ago but that isnt saying there wasn't one...the place is huge! The new Screw machines are CNC, mulitple turrents, heads, and slides. They are faster, more accurate, and make a better quality part over the old B&S machnes of the past. The use them alot in the medical industry which is still growing.
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Post by alco539 on Aug 10, 2012 6:08:59 GMT -8
Pappy,
I've never been to IMTS or any trade show for that matter. There aren't many 40-70 year old Hardinge machines for sale, LOL. Like I said I'm not really in the business like you. I built the machine shop as a hobby, it replaced trains 30+ years ago. That's when I found I liked restoring "old American iron" like Hardinge, Clausing, and Bridgeport. The trains are back!
I had the idea of making "stuff" in the basement to supplement my retirement. However, there isn't enough work for "real" shops in this area, and I don't want to take "food" off their tables. I do some work for my father-in-law in Florida, kinda a remote machine shop for the company he works at, mostly prototype work of simple parts. The quantity work they take to a real machine shop down there which is good for me. Have you ever run a manual turret lathe for an eight hour shift? Thank God for automatics and CNC.
As for the B&S screw machine, I don't think they have made them new for over 50 years. Rebuilt machines and maintenace was available ten or so years ago from the company that bought the B&S machine divsion. When I got back into trains last year, I stopped looking at the Yahoo machine sites and The Practical Machinst forum, so I've lost touch with anything machine related.
A B&S screw machine or Hardinge AHC can be competitive with CNC, or so I've been told when the quantities are in the 100,000's. What makes CNC good is that "change over" to another job is fast, so a shop is able to have a larger customer base. Which is good!
The point I tried to make is, China still uses two-leg machines to do much of their machine work. I agree that we in the US are way ahead in CNC machine use. That is changing in China I'm sure. The only down side is, most of the CNC machines or parts to make them are made off-shore too. I think most of Hardinge CNC machine components are made off shore, with some machining and final assembly in Elmira, but like I said I'm not current. I'm sorry if this has gone off-topic, my last comment, promise!
Regards Charley.
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Post by fishbowlbus on Nov 9, 2018 15:20:20 GMT -8
Thanks for the kind words, guys. I, too, have heard a lot about companies that have made a success of it manufacturing over here. In fact, if you look at the auto industry and similar heavy equipment manufacturing (such as railcars and locomotives) it never really left. The problems of domestic manufacturing arise for hobby products that have such small production runs. My father used to be a supplier of sportswear for Wal-Mart Canada. He could easily have an order for 300,000 pieces. Wal-Mart USA places orders ten times the size of Wal-Mart Canada. That 300,000 order would more likely be 3,000,000. In comparison, a really successful locomotive today will sell 3000-5000 pieces. If we could sell 300,000 of any one thing we could certainly look at domestic sourcing opportunities. But it's not likely going to happen. There aren't enough model railroaders out there. Rubbing my crystal ball, I think that in 30 years our hobby will be much more of a cottage industry, with home-made kits outnumbering the ready-to-run models. It will look more like the UK model industry of the 1970s than what we have today. It will thrive, but it will be a smaller industry than it is now. -Jason so I'll be the guy who modifies corgi fishbowls for people. |
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