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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 19:46:57 GMT -8
I think what is really missing here is emoticon of all the believers drinking the Koolade, for whichever side of the argument you're on.
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Post by Donnell Wells on Dec 18, 2014 19:51:55 GMT -8
The Hobby Manufacturers Association is a trade group who's purpose is to type the hobbies, and on top of being a group I would not trust with the numbers their definitions are so vague to include many things that have not been traditionally considered model railroading... When a manufacturers rep (from one of the top manufacturers) in a personal email upon his retirement describes the model railroading market as rapidly declining I am more apt to believe that than any biased trade organization. Well then oh Curt, wouldst that thou incline our ears as to which numbers thou useth to convey thy belief that the industry is in decline?
Donnell
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Post by sp8299 on Dec 18, 2014 20:36:17 GMT -8
The Hobby Manufacturers Association is a trade group who's purpose is to type the hobbies, and on top of being a group I would not trust with the numbers their definitions are so vague to include many things that have not been traditionally considered model railroading... When a manufacturers rep (from one of the top manufacturers) in a personal email upon his retirement describes the model railroading market as rapidly declining I am more apt to believe that than any biased trade organization. Well then oh Curt, wouldst that thou incline our ears as to which numbers thou useth to convey thy belief that the industry is in decline?
Donnell
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 19, 2014 5:01:15 GMT -8
Which numbers? I am not aware of numbers that show the number of model railroaders is increasing. Since you are unaware, then it must not exist right ? Oh wait! since you do not have it, the hobby *must* be decline! I'm still waiting for you proof Sherman. Funny, but once again you refuse to answer your latest unsubstantiated claim. Remember though, I'm still your favorite big ole' meanie! Boo.
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 19, 2014 5:04:06 GMT -8
The Hobby Manufacturers Association is a trade group who's purpose is to type the hobbies, and on top of being a group I would not trust with the numbers their definitions are so vague to include many things that have not been traditionally considered model railroading... When a manufacturers rep (from one of the top manufacturers) in a personal email upon his retirement describes the model railroading market as rapidly declining I am more apt to believe that than any biased trade organization. Well Gee-gosh-golly. I was wondering when you were going to show-up for the party. You're late! Shame on you as I expected you to teleport in way back on page 3.
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 19, 2014 5:05:36 GMT -8
Wow, I'm really convinced now that the hobby is declining based on an unnamed mfg. rep sending someone a personal email. Now that's some real indisputable evidence. Seriously?? At least Curt cited a source. As for ATSFAN, he just pulls stuff out of his nether-regions & flings it against the wall.
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 19, 2014 5:09:50 GMT -8
Start with the HMA (Hobby Manufacturer Association)... Donnell, Not to throw a grenade into this rousing debate....... But....... Why cloud the: "hobby is dead" "the hobby shop is dying" "pre-orders" "quality control" "DC v. DCC" "Sound v. stealth" "prices" "nobody is spending money, because I'm not spending money" "PRR v. NYC" "Steam v. diesel" "ALCo v. EMD" Blah, blah, blah, blah with facts
Isn't this a place where you shoot from the hip with whatever pops into YOUR head, to justify YOUR OPINION? We don't deal with sticky details like FACTS when fiction is so much better at starting an argument. You forgot Correlation = Causation.
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Post by Donnell Wells on Dec 19, 2014 5:38:06 GMT -8
All right, all right, all right, let's all simmer down (myself included)!
I have perpetuated this latest discourse far beyond where it should have ended. Now, let us rerail this train, and get back on topic.
Donnell
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Post by scl1234 on Dec 19, 2014 6:25:24 GMT -8
Back OT... Given Atlas manufacturing issues as stated on pages 2 and 3, does anyone have info. on the GP40's? Checking the Atlas website, they estimate a Q4 2014 delivery date for these. Does anyone know exactly where on the site to look for a delivery update (nothing in the container shipping section). Absence of an update implies they won't arrive until next quarter. No big deal, but I don't want to "snooze" the container arrival date and miss out. Each production run seems to have fewer extra units for those who miss the narrow pre-order window. (My "pusher" is on the brink doesn't reply to email inquiries any more. )
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 19, 2014 6:53:07 GMT -8
Back OT... Given Atlas manufacturing issues as stated on pages 2 and 3, does anyone have info. on the GP40's? Checking the Atlas website, they estimate a Q4 2014 delivery date for these. Does anyone know exactly where on the site to look for a delivery update (nothing in the container shipping section). Absence of an update implies they won't arrive until next quarter. No big deal, but I don't want to "snooze" the container arrival date and miss out. Each production run seems to have fewer extra units for those who miss the narrow pre-order window. (My "pusher" is on the brink doesn't reply to email inquiries any more. ) It is likely because the factory cannot set a time frame for production yet. If I were to guess, Atlas has a pretty large backlog to churn through first. Most likely they will be mixing pre-run items that are already spoken for to generate revenue for making the new models. You don't want to put yourself in cash-crunch trying to push everything out as fast as they can come off the assembly line. I have to admit my revised S-2 model with Loksound was well worth the wait. I like Atlas models very much although I typically buy them without DCC & add my own flavor of decoder. I am waiting for my Boston & Albany HH-660s which will show-up someday.
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Post by rails4dmv on Dec 19, 2014 6:55:36 GMT -8
Back OT... Given Atlas manufacturing issues as stated on pages 2 and 3, does anyone have info. on the GP40's? Checking the Atlas website, they estimate a Q4 2014 delivery date for these. Does anyone know exactly where on the site to look for a delivery update (nothing in the container shipping section). Absence of an update implies they won't arrive until next quarter. No big deal, but I don't want to "snooze" the container arrival date and miss out. Each production run seems to have fewer extra units for those who miss the narrow pre-order window. (My "pusher" is on the brink doesn't reply to email inquiries any more. ) I'm waiting on the Conn DOT GP40. But given the labor slow down at the Los Angeles container ports and the possibility of a major labor strike, my guess would be sometime 2nd quarter 2015 if not longer, if they aren't on the water yet.
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Post by TBird1958 on Dec 19, 2014 6:56:59 GMT -8
There is also a huge shipping backup on West Coast ports due to a Longshoreman's work slowdown, lots of ships sitting in harbors waiting to unload - many more aren't even leaving Asian ports due to this.
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 19, 2014 7:03:06 GMT -8
There is also a huge shipping backup on West Coast ports due to a Longshoreman's work slowdown, lots of ships sitting in harbors waiting to unload - many more aren't even leaving Asian ports due to this. That's unfortunate to say the least. Couple the work slowdown with the fact that the Chinese New Year is just around the corner makes for some nail-biting. One of the little-known facts in our little hobby is that those models sitting in the containers were paid for by the company before they left the dock in China. Nothing worse than looking on the horizon & seeing your money sitting there doing nothing when you have bills to pay.
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Post by dti406 on Dec 19, 2014 7:26:23 GMT -8
Its even worse to see this happening! Rick J
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 19, 2014 7:43:32 GMT -8
Its even worse to see this happening! Rick J Even worse than that: Attachments:
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Post by bnsf971 on Dec 19, 2014 9:22:59 GMT -8
Who else remembers this happening to the first run of N scale Kato Mikados? The container was lost overboard in a storm.
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Post by atsfan on Dec 19, 2014 15:31:05 GMT -8
There is also a huge shipping backup on West Coast ports due to a Longshoreman's work slowdown, lots of ships sitting in harbors waiting to unload - many more aren't even leaving Asian ports due to this. All the more reason to expand the panama canal and get the goods to the east coast directly. Fewer cross country stack trains though.
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Post by mlehman on Dec 19, 2014 17:23:42 GMT -8
SNIP But given the labor slow down at the Los Angeles container ports and the possibility of a major labor strike, my guess would be sometime 2nd quarter 2015 if not longer, if they aren't on the water yet. But do we know if Atlas ships via the West Coast, then over the transcon OR do they ship direct to an East Coast port? I vaguely remember some of the post-Sandy damage report indicating that some of what Atlas mentioned was a container in port at the time of the hit. But maybe I'm confusing this with something else?...too many big storms to keep straight.
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Post by atsfan on Dec 19, 2014 17:47:57 GMT -8
Containers ship from Asia to the sat coast via Suez by the millions.
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Post by curtmc on Dec 19, 2014 18:14:15 GMT -8
Wow, I'm really convinced now that the hobby is declining based on an unnamed mfg. rep sending someone a personal email. Now that's some real indisputable evidence. Seriously?? Not a sales rep... A production manager at one of the big A companies... Someone who knew exact numbers.
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Post by alcoc430 on Dec 19, 2014 18:18:57 GMT -8
Athearn pushed back the delivery of the SDP45 from January to March.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2014 22:42:55 GMT -8
Wow, I'm really convinced now that the hobby is declining based on an unnamed mfg. rep sending someone a personal email. Now that's some real indisputable evidence. Seriously?? Not a sales rep... A production manager at one of the big A companies... Someone who knew exact numbers. No citation or even figures = just another rumor.
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 20, 2014 3:39:36 GMT -8
Wow, I'm really convinced now that the hobby is declining based on an unnamed mfg. rep sending someone a personal email. Now that's some real indisputable evidence. Seriously?? Not a sales rep... A production manager at one of the big A companies... Someone who knew exact numbers. Once again... Correlation does not equal causation. The number of a run might be down from 10,000 to 3000. However, that is because of Inventory shift from the retailer to the manufacturing channel. In the good ole days, a dealer would stock a bunch of locomotives on their shelves waiting to be sold as ole Irv Athearn would run a body shell maybe once every 3 years & make 10-20,000 of them. Nowadays, the runs are more made-to-order (aka the pre-order system) so the run size is smaller & pretty much pre-sold before it hits the street. Result ? Little to no Inventory sitting on shelves not making money. I really cannot understand why people cannot grasp this concept. So Curt, care to name names ? If he is retired, then it is going to do him no harm if you state who you spoke to. Since I do know whos-who in this little business of ours, I can pretty much narrow it down to 1-2 people who have retired in the last 5 years. Care to lay your cards on the table ? Or just continue to make vague statements like ATSFSAN/Sherman Hill ?
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Post by atsfan on Dec 20, 2014 6:37:36 GMT -8
Not a sales rep... A production manager at one of the big A companies... Someone who knew exact numbers. Once again... Correlation does not equal causation. The number of a run might be down from 10,000 to 3000. However, that is because of Inventory shift from the retailer to the manufacturing channel. In the good ole days, a dealer would stock a bunch of locomotives on their shelves waiting to be sold as ole Irv Athearn would run a body shell maybe once every 3 years & make 10-20,000 of them. Nowadays, the runs are more made-to-order (aka the pre-order system) so the run size is smaller & pretty much pre-sold before it hits the street. Result ? Little to no Inventory sitting on shelves not making money. I really cannot understand why people cannot grasp this concept. So Curt, care to name names ? If he is retired, then it is going to do him no harm if you state who you spoke to. Since I do know whos-who in this little business of ours, I can pretty much narrow it down to 1-2 people who have retired in the last 5 years. Care to lay your cards on the table ? Or just continue to make vague statements like ATSFSAN/Sherman Hill ? Yawn.
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Post by curtmc on Dec 20, 2014 7:22:55 GMT -8
John, that info has been sent to you in a direct message...
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 20, 2014 7:56:49 GMT -8
John, that info has been sent to you in a direct message... Thanks Curt. I'll take a look at it.
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 20, 2014 7:58:13 GMT -8
Once again... Correlation does not equal causation. The number of a run might be down from 10,000 to 3000. However, that is because of Inventory shift from the retailer to the manufacturing channel. In the good ole days, a dealer would stock a bunch of locomotives on their shelves waiting to be sold as ole Irv Athearn would run a body shell maybe once every 3 years & make 10-20,000 of them. Nowadays, the runs are more made-to-order (aka the pre-order system) so the run size is smaller & pretty much pre-sold before it hits the street. Result ? Little to no Inventory sitting on shelves not making money. I really cannot understand why people cannot grasp this concept. So Curt, care to name names ? If he is retired, then it is going to do him no harm if you state who you spoke to. Since I do know whos-who in this little business of ours, I can pretty much narrow it down to 1-2 people who have retired in the last 5 years. Care to lay your cards on the table ? Or just continue to make vague statements like ATSFSAN/Sherman Hill ? Yawn. Once again, you clearly demonstrate that's you are full of it - again
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Dec 20, 2014 8:43:41 GMT -8
Not a sales rep... A production manager at one of the big A companies... Someone who knew exact numbers. Once again... Correlation does not equal causation. The number of a run might be down from 10,000 to 3000. However, that is because of Inventory shift from the retailer to the manufacturing channel. In the good ole days, a dealer would stock a bunch of locomotives on their shelves waiting to be sold as ole Irv Athearn would run a body shell maybe once every 3 years & make 10-20,000 of them. Nowadays, the runs are more made-to-order (aka the pre-order system) so the run size is smaller & pretty much pre-sold before it hits the street. Result ? Little to no Inventory sitting on shelves not making money. I really cannot understand why people cannot grasp this concept. So Curt, care to name names ? If he is retired, then it is going to do him no harm if you state who you spoke to. Since I do know whos-who in this little business of ours, I can pretty much narrow it down to 1-2 people who have retired in the last 5 years. Care to lay your cards on the table ? Or just continue to make vague statements like ATSFSAN/Sherman Hill ? Some seem to forget even back in the good old Irv blue box days that the entire Athearn Catalog was not available 365 days. Some models like the DD40, RDC, Trainmaster, PA's, even certain F-unit paint schemes and some of the freight cars were run sporadically. DD40's would surface whenever and usually quickly sell out. Especially the dual motor version. The ubiquitous Santa Fe red warbonnet F7A and B were nearly always in stock. Finding a CP F7A and B could be difficult at times. What the model railroad industry has done is shift the financial burden of stock on the dealers shoulders. Gone is the day when Irv would churn out 10,000 Santa Fe red warbonnets once or twice a year. Walthers and other distributors would gobble up a few thousand at a time. They in turn would sell a good number to stores, while still having stock on the warehouse shelf for re-orders. The dealers would order stock and put it in a display case, train show table or other venue and wait for someone to want that Santa Fe warbonnet F7 A and B. Now, the manufacturers calculate the number of models they need reservations on and more or less produce that number. Last year, Athearn announced SCL Genesis F's. The reservation numbers were weak and the models cancelled.. On Athearn's Facebook page you'd swear the company had blown up Christmas. Atlas has dropped models too because of low reservation numbers. They may be making fewer numbers of model, but they are also not tying up tens of thousands of dollars of the company's resources in an effort to support those consumers which may someday actually want to make a purchase. Since Athearn is distributed by Horizon, Horizon isn't padding the reservation numbers so it it can have thousands of dollars wrapped up in speculation models. So, the model is sold out at both manufacturer and distributor. The dealer is the cat that gets to play gambler and bet they can sell models over the number of firm customer reservations. The money tied up in models on shelves waiting for a someone, someday to plunk down the cash is the dealers money. Now the dealer must compete with other dealers and move those models. It is no wonder the mom and pop hobby shop is dropping like flies. In the retail side of the hobby, you can't make too many bets that don't pay off quickly. For the people that refuse to advance reserve models, sight unseen, with tight numbers get used to being shut out. But understand that nobody in the supply chain wants to tie up tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars of THEIR COMPANY'S MONEY waiting for you to someday saunter into the shop or press a couple of keys on the computer and make a purchase. Money tied up in stock is dead money. Dealers, distributors and the manufacturers can't keep the new product train rolling if they get too much unsold inventory.
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Post by WP 257 on Dec 20, 2014 12:34:49 GMT -8
Nobody can afford the bank interest to have one or two of everything left on hand. There's too many items and too much money involved.
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Dec 20, 2014 13:17:12 GMT -8
Nobody can afford the bank interest to have one or two of everything left on hand. There's too many items and too much money involved. I got my first train set, a Lionel, for Christmas in 1962. At the time I was two and already bitten severely by the train bug. I got my first HO for Christmas 1965. I was five. I kept my interest in HO trains when other kids my age that also had Tyco train sets and such had lost all interest. I became hotly interested in model railroading after going to the NMRA national train show in Rosemont(Chicago area) Illinois in 1976. I quickly discovered a hobby shop in next door Calumet City, Illinois named Park Lane Hobbies. It was run by Alex Zumida and Alex stocked at least three or more of everything Athearn produced. He also stocked at least a couple of every Roundhouse kit. Every paint scheme and car type of AHM lightweight and heavyweight passenger cars. Books from Kalmbach, every decal from Champ, Walthers, etc.. Air brushes, Tyco steam locomotive kits, every type of Kadee coupler. Plus, he discounted everything! You will never see a hobby shop like that again. Shops can't afford to sit on $300 msrp locomotives discounted down to $200 on something just so a person wanting the Podunk and Western can pick it up when they feel the urge to spend some money, whenever that may be. You'd be surprised HOW MANY different models and paint schemes Athearn produced in 1976. To have stock three or more of each the store had thousands of dollars tied up. Today to stock at least three of every new model you are talking in the hundreds of thousands, with the volume of new product. Stores have to pick and choose wisely, for few hobby shops, other than some of the mega internet sellers have the financial capital to tie up very large amounts of money.
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