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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2016 8:58:52 GMT -8
....Stating that production can not be established in a country because a brass project failed to do so is an over simplification... True. In the late 60s and 70s when almost all brass was produced in Japan, the thought that production might someday move to Korea or China was laughable. Going back to the late 40s and 50s, the same could be said about Japan. Remember when the term "made in Japan" was associated with junk? |
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Post by riogrande on Jan 27, 2016 9:26:38 GMT -8
I remember - Japan > Korea > China >  |
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Post by mlehman on Jan 27, 2016 10:00:55 GMT -8
SNIP Today, with the quality and quantity of lower cost options as they are, the percentage of brass that is strictly in collections has risen. The other aspect is that if it was a good representation of the subject, the it ls still likely a good representation, so the collectors may still prefer a given 30 year old model be a noted model builder than a new release of the same model. So the collectors are not necessarily driving new releases. Stating that production can not be established in a country because a brass project failed to do so is an over simplification. SNIP What at will China do when this starts to happen? Yeah, I don't know that there's more brass in collections. Given it often represents prototypes unlikely to be produced otherwise, if you run stuff that's the only way to get it (other than scratch.) But I'm in the narrowgauge community and this may not apply so much to standard gauge. And don't forget that brass has its flaws, especially older stuff, even when supposedly "prototype specific." You gotta do your pre-purchase homework if that's your main criteria or you'll soon be in the "cryteria."  Then there's the fact that collectors are no longer limited to the brass market. Lots of plastic HO stuff probably never kisses the tracks. I suspect that's also driving some of the overdone crying on quality. If it's a mass market item, then it will have the sort of mass market variations sample to sample that occur in the normal course of production. Finding that, if even unboxed, drives some folks batty. They somehow think nothing but 100% perfect stuff should ever leave a factory, anywhere at any time. Well, welcome to reality, that just doesn't happen except for some very specialized and expensive production processes. What I can't figure out is why they don't accept that fact and search for that perfect example among those on the market, which will only be that much more valuable because of the much larger supposedly flawed pool of production? Note that the India project was not a strictly brass one, more of a hybrid as I recall. And I wasn't arguing that such production could never happen in India, just that the infrastructure and experience weren't there and would take a long time commitment to develop. Importers want to know what you can do for them next year and they want something customers won't be disappointed over. It's one of those chicken or egg dilemmas. And I wouldn't sweat what happens if there ever is a new center of model production that pops up to challenge the current dominance of China in model production. First, it's a tiny, tiny part of their economy. China will just move upscale to something else profitable. I think people often imagine China as some backwards place right out of a 1940s movie, but one look at the Scale Rails video will tell you that lots of it is just like other modern world cities, including in the US -- only with much better rail service and other infrastructure that we've let go to seed. That, particularly in investment in education, as much as high costs is what handicaps bringing production of many things back to the US. Compare educational metrics for other developed and developing nations and you'll see this. The insights already offered into India's worker's skill sets is just one example. It's a very competitive world out there. |
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Post by atsfan on Jan 27, 2016 10:35:53 GMT -8
A "kit" as I said with the hard parts done and the small labor intensive work like grabirons left to the modeler.
And if prices keep climbing, SOMETHING has to give. Demand for one thing.
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Post by Gary P on Jan 28, 2016 7:37:15 GMT -8
....Stating that production can not be established in a country because a brass project failed to do so is an over simplification... True. In the late 60s and 70s when almost all brass was produced in Japan, the thought that production might someday move to Korea or China was laughable. Going back to the late 40s and 50s, the same could be said about Japan. Remember when the term "made in Japan" was associated with junk?Yes, I am that old......  But then along came Kato! |
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Post by riogrande on Jan 28, 2016 11:02:27 GMT -8
Lots of plastic HO stuff probably never kisses the tracks. Raises hand. To be fair, some of us in that category have been building a fleet toward a time we would have a place to build a layout. Being divorced and semi-destitute for years burdened with high child support and private school costs, I haven't lived in anywhere I could really have even a small layout. Consider yourself blessed if you have space for a modest basement empire to pull trains out to kiss the tracks. That said I have noticed a few here and there who have been in a similar boat as me with trains in boxes for some years who are building layouts now and finally getting things going. So not all collectors are just collecting to someday die with the most toys, but with a goal in mind as they work towards it. Collectors often has a bad connotation in train forums so I thought I'd just toss that out there. Really? With Iphones and lots of other hi-tech stuff coming from China who would think of China like that unless they just climbed out of a 1960's fall out shelter like Brandon Frasier in Blast from the Past but well, heh heh. No. We've been hearing that mantra for the past 15 years, and especially 8 years now, but so far the only thing to give is we can't buy as many freight cars at $45 each, but they seem to be selling well enough to keep'em coming so far. |
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Post by atsfan on Jan 28, 2016 12:32:14 GMT -8
"Can't buy as many" = lower demand
Lower demand = smaller runs
Smaller runs = higher prices to cover fixed costs of a run
Higher prices = "can't buy as many"
See also; Brass Market
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Post by riogrande on Jan 28, 2016 12:50:11 GMT -8
There is no point in belaboring it ad-nausem. Give it a rest.
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Post by mlehman on Jan 28, 2016 13:06:54 GMT -8
Lots of plastic HO stuff probably never kisses the tracks. Raises hand. To be fair, some of us in that category have been building a fleet toward a time we would have a place to build a layout. Being divorced and semi-destitute for years burdened with high child support and private school costs, I haven't lived in anywhere I could really have even a small layout. Consider yourself blessed if you have space for a modest basement empire to pull trains out to kiss the tracks. That said I have noticed a few here and there who have been in a similar boat as me with trains in boxes for some years who are building layouts now and finally getting things going. So not all collectors are just collecting to someday die with the most toys, but with a goal in mind as they work towards it. Collectors often has a bad connotation in train forums so I thought I'd just toss that out there. Jim, Please don't take it as something negative when I mention collectors. It's a simple fact of life that the needs of collectors often diverge from those who run stuff. And I'm not even necessarily saying those are bad reasons, just that they clash with some of the goals that prototype modelers have. First of all, they like scarce and expensive, with the more detail the better, because, hey, it's never going to leave the box, while folks that run it want availability and affordability along with operational level detail that doesn't start migrating as soon as the lid comes off. And I don't really count people who intend to run that stuff they have in boxes still as collectors anyway. They buy stuff for the same reasons any other prototype modelers does. Really? With Iphones and lots of other hi-tech stuff coming from China who would think of China like that unless they just climbed out of a 1960's fall out shelter like Brandon Frasier in Blast from the Past but well, heh heh. No.[/quote] There are more dinosaurs around than you might think...and our hobby probably has more than its share. Combine that with the abysmally low number of Americans who can locate it or most other foreign countries on the map, and we should just face the fact that for many anything across an international border that's not Mexico or Canada might as well be on Mars. |
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Post by riogrande on Jan 28, 2016 14:01:34 GMT -8
It's true that the term "collector" automatically has a negative connotation on train forums - really it's become toxic over the past few years. Anyway, comments were more aimed at those who have a jaundice view of collectors so I was offering a legitimate (hopefully) defense to not lump all collectors into the "bad" category. Of course often even critics can admit that collectors are still supporting the market so there is still a silver lining to the "bad" group. I am guessing a there are a goodly number of people who have trains in boxes for some period of years that folks with layouts will lump in with a negative class of collectors, but who are just unfortunate schmucks who lifes circumstances have delayed layout building for too darn long. Some may never really get there, others eventually do.
I tend to think of the brass collectors when I think of "scarce is good" cause it drives up the value - if thats why they are in it, as in to speculate. I don't generally think of the "plastic collectors" as speculators, for the most part although there seemed to be a little of it going on with the BLI California Zephyr passenger cars when you watched the insane prices they were at in Ebay before the last run from BLI hit the market a couple years back.
Of course affordability is relative and certainly freight cars at average prices of $45 can be unaffordable to some and may limit how many some others can afford. For me it means one or two every now and then although over time I've managed to get a decent gaggle going. I don't generally see plastic as a category that gets snatched up for speculation purposes as category like brass once was, and maybe still is to a limited degree.
As for dinosaurs, sure, there are probably a few amongst the model RR afficianados, but not enough I would think matters much unless it's fun to poke those "few" as sport.
Sadly, I think you are all to right about the large number geographically challenged in the US populus. My first clue of that was back when I was a grad student and I was a student teacher of lab for the "rocks for jocks" class. At Indiana University, all students were required to include some science class as part of their liberal arts bachelors degree. So the popular class was a general geology class of which there were two large lecture hall of about 250 students each taught by Mr. Droste (from memory). The word around the school was that it was an "easy" science class so naturally the Phys Ed students (jocks) all signed up for it to get that out of the way. Prof. Droste didn't make it a total cake walk and did make it challenging. Of course for each lecture hall full of students there were around 5 labs that they were all spread out into so they could learn to identify rock specimines, map reading and other stuff for the class. When I got to talking to fellow lab instructors, they related that there was a large percentage of them who didn't know which way was north on a map (duh!) and which hemisphere the United States was in!!! Easy stuff by what I thought. Since then I've seen things in the news and on YouTube where a guy would ask typical people on the street if they could point to a map where basic countries were located. Seemed like 9/10 people were brain dead and could not do it. Scary! Seems like our educational system is really failing us in the US!
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Post by WP 257 on Jan 28, 2016 14:23:14 GMT -8
The dirty secret of model train retail sales is that most people who buy the stuff are actually accumulating trains in the closet roundhouse for the layout they someday hope to build, but in reality never get around to building.
I know a truck driver who charged more than $30000 in model trains on his Visa card, always challenged me to "step up, just use the plastic" to buy what I wanted, and never paid off the credit card bills. Then he got a bad Harley-Davidson habit, and sold many of the trains (some at a significant loss) to pay taxes/buy a motorcycle.
You see, Armand Mazzetti at the Caboose had pushed or sold the "value" of the older Tenshodo brass...which has since utterly collapsed, and cost some folks a ton of money, including my truck driver friend, who is also still sitting on many many old Ulrich and similar wood kits...brand new in box.
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Post by atsfan on Jan 28, 2016 15:22:02 GMT -8
Those new wooden kits will sell on eBay.
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Post by riogrande on Jan 28, 2016 15:24:26 GMT -8
It's not a dirty little secret to those who go to train shows. Where else is all that stuff on the secondary market coming from? Exactly!
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Post by WP 257 on Jan 28, 2016 20:34:48 GMT -8
Perhaps, but one does not fully grasp how pervasive the closet roundhouse really is until your local store owner tells you in plain simple terms:
Many of the buyers never run the stuff, or they have so much stuff that a lot of it never gets run at all, and is essentially "new" when it does reach the secondary market.
The actual number of operators is relatively low. Most are actually collectors, but just don't want to admit it or to be lumped into that category.
Me--I sometimes have brass showing on drivers of new engines after a just few weeks.
Also, the vast majority of brass guys I ever met bought the models because there was something about them that they just loved, and not because they were speculating or investing. If you want to invest, put money in the stock market, or in real railroad stock (actually since about 2007, real railroad stocks have outperformed the Dow Jones, so I read recently). In brass there's no guarantee other than quality and rarity will always make certain newer models worth more (not necessarily including PFM Crowns, which I'm defining as "old" and which in some cases have had stagnant or even declining prices for 20 years).
John
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Post by atsfan on Jan 29, 2016 0:33:59 GMT -8
Perhaps, but one does not fully grasp how pervasive the closet roundhouse really is until your local store owner tells you in plain simple terms: Many of the buyers never run the stuff, or they have so much stuff that a lot of it never gets run at all, and is essentially "new" when it does reach the secondary market. The actual number of operators is relatively low. Most are actually collectors, but just don't want to admit it or to be lumped into that category. Me--I sometimes have brass showing on drivers of new engines after a just few weeks. Also, the vast majority of brass guys I ever met bought the models because there was something about them that they just loved, and not because they were speculating or investing. If you want to invest, put money in the stock market, or in real railroad stock (actually since about 2007, real railroad stocks have outperformed the Dow Jones, so I read recently). In brass there's no guarantee other than quality and rarity will always make certain newer models worth more (not necessarily including PFM Crowns, which I'm defining as "old" and which in some cases have had stagnant or even declining prices for 20 years). John How do train store owners know who runs trains and who doesnt. For one thing, the days of the LHS existing are fading, such that there is a local operator to even know someone. And second, I have never seen nor heard of ANY purchaser or owner sharing information about operating purchases. |
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Post by riogrande on Jan 29, 2016 4:58:47 GMT -8
I don't know John about grasping but I'm getting a pretty good sense of it! Over the past 8-10 years of going to Timonium and other shows, nothing could account for all the stuff available other than a combination of some people selling off large quantities of stuff they bought (either on impulse or are changing focus) or other cases estate after estate going up for sale, either through a shop, a vendor or family members. Yes, much/most is new. Anyone who is out there circulating - it's totally obvious. I bring it all up when people complain about the high cost of new products and lament about lack of kit productions - hey guys, its out there in copious quantities at shows, email lists, ebay etc. choose your favorite secondary source.
Operators vs. collectors - sure probably right, good or bad. But to be fair, that's probably true of so many other hobbies or genre's. Americans are master collectors and extremely materialistic compared to the rest of the world, and compared to when my parents (who are in their 80's) grew up - my dad's boyhood house kitchen had a dirt floor, for example and his 9 brothers and sisters all cycled through one big tub for baths - imagine the water was kind-a dirty and cold when the last kid went through.
Modelers who get to run may sadly be in the minority AND they should count their blessings as so many don't have a space for a layout and ability to run. This thing you call brass - I honestly am pretty ignorant of because it's a genre I have almost no experience in except for a few passenger cars and cabooses. You can tell me anything and I'd accept it because it's something I have only seen mostly from afar. I'd guess speculation is a limited part of that world, and is probably spotty - some get lucky, others take a bath. My cousin out in Granada Hills CA got into G scale stuff, LGB etc. back in the 1990's and was talking about how much stuff he bought had gone up in value at the time and how cool that was. I have no idea how it panned out over time.
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Post by WP 257 on Jan 29, 2016 18:04:01 GMT -8
atsfan--
Sales rule #1: Know your customers. My friend Rich has been sales manager of a good store for something like 20 years now. He becomes genuinely friends with the customers, helps some of them plan and even build their layouts, listens to their personal problems, etc. Grieves when they pass away (one month a couple years ago he lost 8 customers who passed on, and that was a tough month).
You would actually be amazed at the stuff the store sales people learn over time. They know who actually runs the stuff and who is accumulating for the day they hope to someday build a layout.
Not all the good shops are passing away. A few remain.
I have personally visited multiple home layouts just as a result of people I met at that particular train store. We even had an informal "lodge" for awhile, years back. I've helped folks build layouts...
On Saturdays, people take stuff in for show and tell, too. There are custom painters who sell their services--the store will hand out their business cards, etc.
Rich knows his customers so well that he can pretty much make an educated guess of how many of them will buy this or that. They keep mental records of who models this or that. For example, he has 5 "Santa Fe modelers", and he also knows how many SP guys there are (apparently more than Santa Fe).
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Post by atsfan on Jan 30, 2016 7:01:24 GMT -8
atsfan-- Sales rule #1: Know your customers. My friend Rich has been sales manager of a good store for something like 20 years now. He becomes genuinely friends with the customers, helps some of them plan and even build their layouts, listens to their personal problems, etc. Grieves when they pass away (one month a couple years ago he lost 8 customers who passed on, and that was a tough month). You would actually be amazed at the stuff the store sales people learn over time. They know who actually runs the stuff and who is accumulating for the day they hope to someday build a layout. Not all the good shops are passing away. A few remain. I have personally visited multiple home layouts just as a result of people I met at that particular train store. We even had an informal "lodge" for awhile, years back. I've helped folks build layouts... On Saturdays, people take stuff in for show and tell, too. There are custom painters who sell their services--the store will hand out their business cards, etc. Rich knows his customers so well that he can pretty much make an educated guess of how many of them will buy this or that. They keep mental records of who models this or that. For example, he has 5 "Santa Fe modelers", and he also knows how many SP guys there are (apparently more than Santa Fe). There are a few left yes, but, sadly, many are gone and large populations are left to order online. Not much learned via that method. As for people buying more stuff than they need or can use, well I guess almost everyone has gone through that phase. In Plastic Modeling, it is called a "stash" and some guys have CLOSETS full of kits waiting to be built. In my case I have maybe 2 or 3 cars more than I need or can use. I am innocent of hoarding I promise!@!!!     |
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But then along came Kato! 
