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Post by bar on Feb 23, 2017 8:28:24 GMT -8
texasandpacific, 500-part locos were never made in the USA. It can't "come back" here because it never happened here...just sayin'. BTW, the whole thing about "fast food workers"...you know that applies to everyone, right? People working retail, stocking warehouses, working in factories, etc. But fast food workers are somehow always used as the example of minimum wage, and always in a dismissive way. Why is that? For the same reason some illegal immigrants are called "dreamers" It's political branding, marketing/agenda-driven, like most things today. |
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Post by fr8kar on Feb 23, 2017 9:05:04 GMT -8
There can be 3 times as many parts in a loco as what is in a passenger car. Some locos easily exceed 500 parts now. This is why production will not come back here ever. Your 15 dollar an hour fast food worker (assuming wage increase some want in US) will not be capable of assembling locos to any quality standard that most of us would accept. Most of us on this forum couldn't do it, regardless of the wage paid. |
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Post by jonklein611 on Feb 23, 2017 9:22:07 GMT -8
There can be 3 times as many parts in a loco as what is in a passenger car. Some locos easily exceed 500 parts now. This is why production will not come back here ever. Your 15 dollar an hour fast food worker (assuming wage increase some want in US) will not be capable of assembling locos to any quality standard that most of us would accept. Most of us on this forum couldn't do it, regardless of the wage paid. That's exactly why I buy them instead of building kits / scratch build. I know I stink at it! |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 9:54:42 GMT -8
Sorry if I offended anyone with my "fast food workers at $15 an hour comment" but some folks today in America are dangerously spoiled and expect government handouts for very easy work...work supposed to be nothing more than a stepping stone to better jobs, for those who choose to invest in themselves, learn something post secondary, and go get a better job. If we pay everyone $15 an hour then the incentive to better oneself is diminished, and the value of the jobs some of us have, that we worked very hard to acquire, over many years, will be drastically cheapened. If we pay all restaurant worker type jobs that $15 an hour, then some of us will never be able to afford to eat out at a restaurant again. For pete's sake, entry level land surveying and engineering technician jobs only pay $12 to $15 an hour where I live, and we have fast food workers, who utterly lack the skills and post secondary training for those types of jobs, who think THEY deserve $15 an hour, for what? What have they accomplished?
I learned many valuable lessons from working in a machine shop at $3.35 an hour during the late 1980's. They had to fire people who couldn't count and recognize part numbers, too. So I really don't see some of today's high school graduates "cutting it" (or not literally injuring themselves) in that machine shop, or similar work, which is now gone as those jobs went to China because the retail sales value of the product no longer supports American wage standards. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 9:56:31 GMT -8
It's not "how many engines can you build in 20 hours", but that it probably takes 20 to 24 hours TOTAL time for a bunch of technically skilled and competent people, who have been trained over at least a couple years for each employee, as a group, to assemble ONE engine, on average.
Here I'm really just extrapolating Jason's math above. If a $110 item takes about 8 hours to build, as he says is factually true, then it reasonably follows that a pretty nice diesel at $330 (some of them are there at that price point, at least MSRP) should take 24 hours. I have independent confirmation from another importer that those numbers are definitely in the ball park of "real world".
So take the hours times whatever wage rate you think is fair and achievable, and then realize that that price you just calculated has to be more than doubled if not tripled (for distributors/dealers to eat), and you see, very quickly, why production of model trains (with a few limited exceptions) is not coming back here. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 10:35:07 GMT -8
It's not "how many engines can you build in 20 hours", but that it probably takes 20 to 24 hours TOTAL time for a bunch of technically skilled and competent people, who have been trained over at least a couple years for each employee, as a group, to assemble ONE engine, on average. Are you saying it takes three person-days (at 8 hours per day) to assemble one locomotive? Put another way, that it would take one person three days to assemble a single locomotive? Just think about that... I don't know what Jason said, but common sense tells you that isn't right. |
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Post by jonklein611 on Feb 23, 2017 11:00:58 GMT -8
It's not "how many engines can you build in 20 hours", but that it probably takes 20 to 24 hours TOTAL time for a bunch of technically skilled and competent people, who have been trained over at least a couple years for each employee, as a group, to assemble ONE engine, on average. Are you saying it takes three person-days (at 8 hours per day) to assemble one locomotive? Put another way, that it would take one person three days to assemble a single locomotive? Just think about that... I don't know what Jason said, but common sense tells you that isn't right. I think the math is for plastic pellets to item in box (excluding time making the molds). So injection molding, part cleanup, assembly, paint, decoration, wiring, assembly, packaging. There's a labor cost associated with every one of those steps. |
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Post by Judge Doom on Feb 23, 2017 11:03:15 GMT -8
It's not "how many engines can you build in 20 hours", but that it probably takes 20 to 24 hours TOTAL time for a bunch of technically skilled and competent people, who have been trained over at least a couple years for each employee, as a group, to assemble ONE engine, on average. Are you saying it takes three person-days (at 8 hours per day) to assemble one locomotive? Put another way, that it would take one person three days to assemble a single locomotive? Just think about that... I don't know what Jason said, but common sense tells you that isn't right. Keep in mind with the average non-powered freight car and many passenger cars you're just doing assembling/adding on parts to the body, and screwing on a pair of trucks. Locomotives, you need to do the shell but also build the drive - including assembling the gear boxes and geared wheelsets, putting the drivetrain together, running wires, adding lighting, wiring it all to the decoder + programming, test running & troubleshooting. Adds additional production time versus a well-detailed passenger car, boxcar or hopper with no drivetrain or electronic goodies. Of course since it's assembly line style, one person won't build up a loco or freight car from a pile of parts into a finished model: one person will add some grabs, the model gets passed to another person who adds pilots, then another who adds the window glazing, and so on. Economies of scale with assembly line work and workers specializing in doing one or a few assembly tasks means a model on average would get built a lot quicker that way, than to have one worker (of varying skill levels in all the tasks that need to be done) fully building up a model from parts to finished product. He/she might be good at adding window glazing quickly, but take 2-3 times as long struggling to install the grabs. That figure also might not just be the basic assembly work, the figure might include injecting and making the parts, cutting parts from sprues + cleanup, painting, bending wire for grabs, etc. |
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Post by scl1234 on Feb 23, 2017 11:46:23 GMT -8
Your 15 dollar an hour fast food worker ... ...will result in $10 Big Macs. |
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Post by jonklein611 on Feb 23, 2017 11:53:34 GMT -8
Sorry if I offended anyone with my "fast food workers at $15 an hour comment" but some folks today in America are dangerously spoiled and expect government handouts for very easy work...work supposed to be nothing more than a stepping stone to better jobs, for those who choose to invest in themselves, learn something post secondary, and go get a better job. If we pay everyone $15 an hour then the incentive to better oneself is diminished, and the value of the jobs some of us have, that we worked very hard to acquire, over many years, will be drastically cheapened. If we pay all restaurant worker type jobs that $15 an hour, then some of us will never be able to afford to eat out at a restaurant again. For pete's sake, entry level land surveying and engineering technician jobs only pay $12 to $15 an hour where I live, and we have fast food workers, who utterly lack the skills and post secondary training for those types of jobs, who think THEY deserve $15 an hour, for what? What have they accomplished?
I learned many valuable lessons from working in a machine shop at $3.35 an hour during the late 1980's. They had to fire people who couldn't count and recognize part numbers, too. So I really don't see some of today's high school graduates "cutting it" (or not literally injuring themselves) in that machine shop, or similar work, which is now gone as those jobs went to China because the retail sales value of the product no longer supports American wage standards. The issue with this argument is we will still need people to fill those "fast food" jobs. And unless you're OK with a fast food place only being open outside of school hours (so you can have all student staff paying them "fun" money), that's not going to work well in today's world. My generation was told "get a degree and you'll get a good job". We were lied to, that's not the case in today's markets. I'm willing to bet a large portion of the people working those min wage jobs have significant post high school education (trade school, college, MBA, etc.). They went and got educated, but there are just not enough "educated" jobs to go around. Also, because they went to school, they more than likely have student loan debt that they are trying to pay off. It's near impossible to survive, let alone payoff debt making minimum wage. In some cases, depending on the price of gas, it can make it cost prohibitive to even make it to work (gas costs more than your wages). Do not make the assumption that simply because someone is working a min wage job, it's because they chose the easy way, or aren't motivated. Math for some examples of min wage vs. college expenses here: i.imgur.com/Kzzz2lY.jpg To quote something I read a while back "Why wouldn’t we want people performing vital jobs like farm workers, housekeepers, nursing assistants, fishing industry workers, construction workers, and yes, fast food workers (among others) to be able to lead secure, happy lives, so they’ll keep doing those jobs we so desperately need done? [W]e should pay them what they’re worth to society—which sure isn’t $7.50/hour." I'm speaking from experience. My then fiancée lost her job due to downsizing, she's college graduate, has a MBA, and had years of experience in corporate type jobs. She couldn't get a job at any other corporate type locations because they were either 1) not hiring, or 2) she was "overqualified" (aka too expensive) for the position. The only job she could find was working at a "fast food" type location. The money she brought in from that job could barely cover her medical costs (remember, most fast food places don't provide health insurance), and thankfully we still had my income to cover our costs (with some adjustments). This happened years ago, she's still on the search for a job, while taking classes for to broaden her career options (more money out the door), and there's been nothing to speak of as far as job offers. Thankfully we're now married, so she's covered under my medical plan. Additionally, there's still a demand for people to work those jobs (because we want our burgers and fries, or coffee, at whichever hour we care to shop at). Regardless of who's working that position, we should condemn them to not being able to afford to live their life, put food on the table, and raise a family? The example of "I get paid X, and I'm trained to do Y, how dare fast food people make X as well!" is flawed. We as a country should not be forcing people on to government assistance simply because they are working a job folks consider "beneath them". At the very least consider the savings we'd have in government spending, and how much extra money would flow into the local economy if all workers had a living wage. I understand your stepping stone point. The lowest stone still should be above water, with the others climbing higher and higher. There will still be other higher paying jobs out there, for some, and some will be inspired (or lucky enough) to get those jobs. laborcenter.berkeley.edu/fast-food-poverty-wages-the-public-cost-of-low-wage-jobs-in-the-fast-food-industry/ |
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Post by dharris on Feb 23, 2017 12:33:43 GMT -8
Your 15 dollar an hour fast food worker ... ...will result in $10 Big Macs. This has not happened. |
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Post by canrailfan on Feb 23, 2017 13:10:55 GMT -8
The narrow focus on wages only covers one issue in the domestic versus overseas production debate.
I had a very interesting conversation with Lee English at Springfield in January. As many people know, Bowser has kept as much of their model production stateside as they possibly can. Lee explained that another major factor forcing production to China is the EPA regulations concerning work place health and safety. If EPA regulations force a manufacturer such as Bowser to spend as much as $1,000,000 (yes, that's one million) to build a workplace that will pass EPA inspection, before a single model is produced, it's not hard to see why the work will go to China. Bowser is literally being forced to move an increasing amount of work to China.
North America may end up with the safest workplaces in the world but very little work. Health and safety is important but in recent years it may have become a mantra that sends jobs away.
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Post by dharris on Feb 23, 2017 13:20:45 GMT -8
The narrow focus on wages only covers one issue in the domestic versus overseas production debate. I had a very interesting conversation with Lee English at Springfield in January. As many people know, Bowser has kept as much of their model production stateside as they possibly can. Lee explained that another major factor forcing production to China is the EPA regulations concerning work place health and safety. If EPA regulations force a manufacturer such as Bowser to spend as much as $1,000,000 (yes, that's one million) to build a workplace that will pass EPA inspection, before a single model is produced, it's not hard to see why the work will go to China. Bowser is literally being forced to move an increasing amount of work to China. North America may end up with the safest workplaces in the world but very little work. Health and safety is important but in recent years it may have become a mantra that sends jobs away. EPA OSHA Unions ACA Taxes Fines FICA The list is long. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 14:25:04 GMT -8
Trying to relatively avoid politics, a lot of people were mocking our new President, but he understands these issues better than some and is already taking steps to "reign in" the EPA.
You would not believe the untold millions of dollars wasted in design and construction of big projects. The $1,000,000 quoted by Lee of Bowser, while huge to them, is only a drop in the bucket when compared to real world construction delays and cost overages that would not exist--would completely VANISH--if government agency regulators had even a clue of the real world.
We had to protect fish that "might" be living in an utterly polluted creek in Philadelphia on one major ($87 million) project recently. At tremendous costs...and there's no fish alive in that creek...
Back to the wage issue: When I worked the minimum wage factory job, there was an entire staff of non-summer or temporary employees, with 20 years of experience. They were happy and thankful to get their 10 cent or 20 cent per year wage increase. I think the free market should dictate salaries, not government laws. You can't apply one salary standard across even an entire state, efficiently, without creating problems. But people still need to go out and find a better job. And excuses that they don't exist are a lie--there are businesses that can't "find" the people they want and use that as an excuse to import H1B visa people and take advantage of them to increase profits.
Yes, the education market lied to some and sold them utterly "worthless" degrees. I can't do anything about that. I humbly submit that some should have known better and perhaps not chosen those "easy" majors like general business (known as "Party 101" at schools like Penn State) just so they could party their way through college while some of us worked our butts off just to survive those majors that have much better job outlooks than "business". People need to make a fully informed, wise choice about college or trade school or what have you.
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Post by Brakie on Feb 23, 2017 14:25:15 GMT -8
EPA and OSHA is the top two criminal organizations that went over the top with strangling regulations. I call them criminal because they done more to kill American industries then any Union.
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Post by valenciajim on Feb 23, 2017 15:50:53 GMT -8
As a resident of the People's Democratic Republic of California, I am aware of the huge environmental regulations. Many years ago, both Athearn and Model Die Casting production was done in Los Angeles. The environmental regulations made that impossible. I seem to recall that MDC moved to Carson City, Nevada briefly before being acquired by Athearn.
I don't see the CA pollution restrictions changing. Compare the availability of model paints today with a few years ago. If you scratch build styrene models, where are the solvent adhesives of yesterday?
Touching on another point--the $15/hr minimum wage. Last November I was in Holland for a week. In Holland the typical fast food restaurant worker salary costs are about $30/hr. Plus you cannot fire a permanent employee without providing at least two years severance. So it is no surprise that there are no workers behind the counter. You place an order from a vending machine, swipe your credit card or pay cash and the machine gives you change. The McDonalds I was in was considerably larger than the typical US McDonalds, but it only had three employees on the premises. Everything was automated.
When the cost of labor exceeds the value that the labor produces, it become more efficient to automate. The cost of technology is estimated to drop by 50% every five years, so the faster wages increase, the sooner the process will be automated. If tariffs increase the cost of offshore labor, then that labor will be a more likely candidate to be replaced by automation.
A month or so ago, I posted in a thread about Walthers passenger trains being cancelled that I thought the future of model railroad production would be in robotics and other technology. A lot of people thought I was nuts. We are already seeing some pretty nice models being 3D printed. Ten years from now, when costs are lower and quality has improved, I'll bet we see some manufacturer use 3d printing as a platform for their production. We might get to the point where, if you want an undecorated model that you finish yourself, you order it from an on-line vendor and print it on your own 3D printer.
The tariff structure is very troubling to me overall, and if enacted, I think it will have a significant adverse impact on the hobby. I don't believe that tariffs are a long term solution based on our experiences of the 1930's.
Enough on economics--I am going upstairs to work on a model!
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Post by Brakie on Feb 23, 2017 16:57:34 GMT -8
The McDonalds I was in was considerably larger than the typical US McDonalds, but it only had three employees on the premises. Everything was automated.
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And that's the same corporation that makes billions annually that showed their employees how to sign up on food stamps.
Now they are hinting about "testing" automation at select "test" restaurants... What that really means will Americans agree to such automation?
OTOH I had a McD breakfast the other morning and I didn't get what I ordered so,I returned it with my receipt received a apology and got my correct breakfast for free plus I kept the messed up order since I could not return it because I paid for it and health regulations forbids it..
Back to railroading.. The EPA is the source behind the environmental locomotives and the downswing in coal business.
How bad?
I can recall when 3 out of 5 N&W trains on the Sandusky line was coal drags..Now its more like 1 out of every 15.
Then there's the thousands of miners EPA put out of work.
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Post by dharris on Feb 23, 2017 18:46:33 GMT -8
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Post by dharris on Feb 23, 2017 18:49:52 GMT -8
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