WFN12
New Member
Posts: 40
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Post by WFN12 on Dec 26, 2018 16:24:12 GMT -8
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Post by sd40dash2 on Dec 26, 2018 16:46:47 GMT -8
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Post by GP40P-2 on Dec 26, 2018 16:59:17 GMT -8
Made in the USA? His pricing may be a bit low.
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Post by SOMECALLMETIM on Dec 26, 2018 17:04:22 GMT -8
Interesting. I am not holding my breath that it will be Rapido or Scale Trains quality level locomotive both of which companies are proven non vapor-ware manufacturers. Hopefully this company doesn’t spoil the chances of a Rapido-quality detail level SDL39 model. I know I can roll my own. I have squirreled away the required parts. Time will tell what the result will be.
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Post by gevohogger on Dec 26, 2018 18:29:03 GMT -8
I wonder how good is the cardboard box it comes packed in?
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Post by Judge Doom on Dec 26, 2018 18:59:46 GMT -8
Here we go again...
$349 DC/$449 DCC is about right for a niche model locomotive with low to moderate sales that's **made in China**, but they need to multiply that price a few times over if they're going to be making it in the US, unless it's going to have Athearn blue-box level cast-on detail. Maybe they browsed competitor's prices and figured they can sell them for that plus a bit extra - not actually having looked at or costed the actual manufacturing/marketing/distributing/etc costs and logistics of manufacturing.
Or maybe I'm just cynical after seeing others promising new and exciting quality things that turn out to be vaporware or turds. Anyone with some basic web knowledge can create a ready-made e-Store of their own with some standard checkout/shopping cart pages, and promise the world to prospective customers. Getting that product designed, manufactured, packaged, sold and shipped however separates the men from the mice.
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Post by wp8thsub on Dec 26, 2018 19:07:59 GMT -8
At least this outfit is promising prototype models, and the site is soliciting information to make the products better. That's promising compared to the Value Turds fiasco.
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Post by onequiknova on Dec 26, 2018 19:19:58 GMT -8
I happened to come across this guys post a few days ago on the Milwaukee Road modellers Facebook page. He showed an in progress CAD drawing.
He says he's wanting to use some kind of new manufacturing process that is well suited for high fidelity, small production runs like this. He didn't elaborate.
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Post by santafe49 on Dec 26, 2018 20:01:09 GMT -8
A blank "contact" page! Where, who, what. Leaves a lot to the imagination. Is he some Nigerian king trying to do business in the US??
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Post by fcixdarrell on Dec 26, 2018 21:10:31 GMT -8
Here we go again... $349 DC/$449 DCC is about right for a niche model locomotive with low to moderate sales that's **made in China**, but they need to multiply that price a few times over if they're going to be making it in the US, unless it's going to have Athearn blue-box level cast-on detail. Why do you think a quality product couldn't be made in North America at competitive prices? I'm curious why these kinds of statements keep coming up. Can you give any specifics, or is it just because Jason says so?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2018 21:18:17 GMT -8
I hope that he can deliver that engine...it would be huge to have a niche manufacturer that made decent models...even if they were starting point models only.
One item I would suggest to them right off the bat is EMD stanchions...in ABS plastic; and cored for .015" wire.
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Post by Judge Doom on Dec 26, 2018 21:25:55 GMT -8
Here we go again... $349 DC/$449 DCC is about right for a niche model locomotive with low to moderate sales that's **made in China**, but they need to multiply that price a few times over if they're going to be making it in the US, unless it's going to have Athearn blue-box level cast-on detail. Why do you think a quality product couldn't be made in North America at competitive prices? I'm curious why these kinds of statements keep coming up. Can you give any specifics, or is it just because Jason says so? Let me answer your snarky question with another snarky question: why aren't you and PWRS/NARC building your new 5077 and 5092 cuft boxcars in North America? And why can't you build them here competitively like you seem to imply you and other manufacturers can? Let's see...highly detailed manufacturers... Athearn: China. Atlas: China. Rapido: China. ScaleTrains: China. Bowser: China. Intermountain: China (although some of IM and Bowser's casting and tooling work is done in North America, the parts are shipped to China for assembly). Oh, PWRS/NARC: China. I suppose you can if you're Kadee and make fairly standardized offerings like trucks, couplers, and the same boxcar models (tooling long paid off) just in new liveries. Or Accurail (not exactly highly detailed, but we'll throw them in for comparison's sake), if all your detail is cast-on and the end user needs to assemble the cars from a few basic parts (very minimized/low labor costs). That's not to take away from either (they make nice products, of which I own a bunch) but they're not exactly forerunners of the hobby announcing new highly detailed prototypes every few months, much less every year. And if ValueTrains is your idea of a quality North American product made at a competitive price, well...I suppose the term the kids today use is "ROFL!"
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Post by edwardsutorik on Dec 26, 2018 21:38:25 GMT -8
Maybe yes. Maybe no.
We'll see what happens, won't we?
If this was an NW5, I'd probably get worked up too. But then you all wouldn't.
One thing for sure, no prepaid orders until there's physical product. Or am I wrong on that?
Ed
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2018 21:42:58 GMT -8
Maybe yes. Maybe no. We'll see what happens, won't we? If this was an NW5, I'd probably get worked up too. But then you all wouldn't. One thing for sure, no prepaid orders until there's physical product. Or am I wrong on that? Ed I'd agree on wait and see. But, again, for ole Muley...and others...it would be a dream for the SDL39 to become a reality in HO without having to reinvent the wheel to get one "right". I don't need an SDL39; but I would like to see what comes about...to base future releases if/when they come around.
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Post by fcixdarrell on Dec 26, 2018 23:33:39 GMT -8
Why do you think a quality product couldn't be made in North America at competitive prices? I'm curious why these kinds of statements keep coming up. Can you give any specifics, or is it just because Jason says so? Let me answer your snarky question with another snarky question: why aren't you and PWRS/NARC building your new 5077 and 5092 cuft boxcars in North America? And why can't you build them here competitively like you seem to imply you and other manufacturers can? Let's see...highly detailed manufacturers... Athearn: China. Atlas: China. Rapido: China. ScaleTrains: China. Bowser: China. Intermountain: China (although some of IM and Bowser's casting and tooling work is done in North America, the parts are shipped to China for assembly). Oh, PWRS/NARC: China. I suppose you can if you're Kadee and make fairly standardized offerings like trucks, couplers, and the same boxcar models (tooling long paid off) just in new liveries. Or Accurail (not exactly highly detailed, but we'll throw them in for comparison's sake), if all your detail is cast-on and the end user needs to assemble the cars from a few basic parts (very minimized/low labor costs). That's not to take away from either (they make nice products, of which I own a bunch) but they're not exactly forerunners of the hobby announcing new highly detailed prototypes every few months, much less every year. And if ValueTrains is your idea of a quality North American product made at a competitive price, well...I suppose the term the kids today use is "ROFL!" I wasn't being snarky (at least not intentionally). It's a serious question. But you didn't really answer anyway, although you did mention labor. I always hear quotes from Jason regarding Kadee's business plan. I was hoping for something I wasn't implying I can do it here as competitively. I was looking for actual reasons why you (who seem knowledgeable) don't think it can be done. I don't make decisions at PWRS/NARC as to where production is performed. I do contract project management for them and get product designed/built wherever they choose. I haven't personally seen the ValueTrains product, but from what I've heard, they are pretty much in a league of their own and this time, not worth discussing. My background is manufacturing. 40+ years, stuff way more complex than model trains. Produced/assembled in the USA. Within the next 10 years, production of model trains will have moved out of China because of rising labor costs and even bigger, the fact that the Chinese government is pushing "low cost" manufacturing to other developing countries as they want to have higher paying manufacturing jobs that will raise the standard of living. For example, most Christmas ornaments are now produced outside of China. The Dongguan Province used to be known as the toy factory for the world, as a large percentage of all toys produced in the world were manufactured there. This is where most model trains are manufactured. China is transitioning the province from low-cost toy manufacturing to high-cost, hi-tech manufacturing for such items as cell phones and other electronics to robotic arms, etc. Rapido has moved their manufacturing outside of Dongguan Province where costs are lower getting away from what's becoming a hi-tech, high-cost hub. If you tried to transfer the current process employed in China over here, you couldn't produce competitively priced cars and locos. But, there are lots and lots of companies manufacturing products in North America at globally competitive prices, and that includes manufacturing the various parts, assembling them, painting and packaging them and making a profit. The current Chinese processes includes lots of waste and defects. In fact, each major step creates anywhere from 8-12% defects or loss because of defects. Stuff like the cavity not filling properly, to parts warping to parts damaged/destroyed while being removed from the sprue to excess glue when applying detail parts, to damaged parts applied, to too thick of a paint coat that covers detail, to fingerprints, to incorrectly wired lighting, etc., etc. etc. If you can improve processes to eliminate waste and defects, labor becomes less of an issue. If you are producing 5000 of a given product and have say 10% waste/loss at each of the steps (injection molding, removing parts from sprues, assembly, paint, decoration) you would need to start with the equivalent of 8500 units wort in order to get 5020 perfect units. We know defects creep through, so maybe you would only need 7000 units worth, That's still a cumulative of 29 % extra production to get an order of 5000 built. The higher the quantity, the more "spares" you need. There are a lot of injection molding companies in North America that can compete cost-wise with China for tooling and molding and know what they are doing. They could be contracted with for plastic production. Assembly becomes a roadblock. Paint and decoration can be dealt with competitively. Since the Bejing Olympics and the embarrassment that the high levels of pollution brought the government globally, they have implemented strict pollution controls on factories (emissions and waste disposal). About 80,000 factories could not or did not want to comply and have closed either voluntarily or forcibly. If you could reduce/eliminate the defects/losses incurred during assembly and reduce touch time by a person, one could reduce a lot of costs if produced in North America. Robotic arms/interfaces could be employed to apply predetermined amounts of glue during assembly or paint and pad printing during paint and decoration, while people could be employed for doing tasks easier/faster than could be done by robotics. Robotics too much? They are using robotics for assembling everything from barbecues to satellites. I bet there are a lot more model train locomotives and cars built per month than barbecues.
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Post by lvrr325 on Dec 27, 2018 0:07:06 GMT -8
$150 over the cost of a typical DC locomotive already and that doesn't cover the difference?
FWIW, a little googling shows model trains industry-wide sales at 1.3 to 1.5 billion dollars annually while barbecue grills estimated at industry-wide revenue of 6.6 billion for 2017 and predicted to rise.
While it's probably fair to claim more model train items are assembled each month, that's in part because most grilles come ready to go or close to it, they cost much more than a train kit (you can spend more on a really fancy one than on a new car), and you don't turn around and buy three more to go with it. But the stats say 75% of US adults own a grill or smoker. I doubt you've ever been able to come close to that with regard to owning model trains.
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Post by fcixdarrell on Dec 27, 2018 1:19:56 GMT -8
$150 over the cost of a typical DC locomotive already and that doesn't cover the difference? FWIW, a little googling shows model trains industry-wide sales at 1.3 to 1.5 billion dollars annually while barbecue grills estimated at industry-wide revenue of 6.6 billion for 2017 and predicted to rise. While it's probably fair to claim more model train items are assembled each month, that's in part because most grilles come ready to go or close to it, they cost much more than a train kit (you can spend more on a really fancy one than on a new car), and you don't turn around and buy three more to go with it. But the stats say 75% of US adults own a grill or smoker. I doubt you've ever been able to come close to that with regard to owning model trains. You would think (hope) that what Lines West is charging reflects a really decent product that stands out from the more competitively-priced products. But, it IS a limited appeal model. I'm sure that they know what their break-even point is and how many units they expect to sell over x-period of time and have priced the units accordingly. But that doesn't guarantee that they'll meet their targets. I really hope that they can pull this off and be successful. As far as model locos/cars-to-barbecues goes, I was referring to units, not dollars. An HO locomotive is much more complex than the average barbecue, regardless of price of the barbecue. The point I was trying to make is that barbecues are typically made in very automated factories. Why not model trains? The typical model train factory in China does only a limited amount of the total steps it takes to create a model loco or car. Some do the whole thing, womb-to-tomb in-house. Some sub-contract out more than others. For example, a supplier might subcontract out the tooling, and/or injection molding, packaging, metal parts, etc., while most at least do the assembly, paint, decoration and packaging. I don't think that any one company could open a production facility in North America to assemble, paint, decorate and package model locos and cars that were detailed with lots of separate parts and be successful. But, if a factory was set-up that used a portion of the Chinese model, do assembly, paint, decorate and physically package while subcontracting the balance out, for multiple companies (the Athearns, Atlases, Intermountains, etc. of the world) could be competitive to either China or other developing countries. Model trains and barbecues are like apples and mountain bikes, if you want to compare markets. Two totally different markets, but, similar manufacturing processes.
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Post by sd40dash2 on Dec 27, 2018 4:33:13 GMT -8
One item I would suggest to them right off the bat is EMD stanchions...in ABS plastic; and cored for .015" wire. I respectfully disagree. Plastic was never a good material for stanchions as it is rarely strong enough to remain STRAIGHT. Wire for the handrail portion only solves a portion of the problem with plastic handrail sets. The entire assembly needs to be made of metal. Only then will we achieve the true prototype look IMO.
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Post by stottman on Dec 27, 2018 4:40:36 GMT -8
All of the discussion is apples to mountain bikes until more details of the model are released.
And FWIW, the "MSRP" of a comparable Athearn SD38 (in terms of labor) that is "Made in China" is $135. Thats MSRP, with street price of $100. So how much is Athearn actually getting for one? $75?
So $350 for direct sales and made in the USA? That doesn't sound out of line, especially if they are doing some sort of hybrid manufacturing method. Resin, a large lot of detail parts that are bought on contract from a detail parts company, etc......
2nd, as Darryl pointed out, the assembly process in China seems to be very antiquated and labor intensive.
And finally, I will take the "woe is me" arguments from Rapido with a grain of salt. He is a businessman that is obviously successful and earns a nice living, based on the "Richy Rich" style "toys" he shows off. A bus, train car, train car in his basement, etc.
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Post by brakie on Dec 27, 2018 6:02:56 GMT -8
A blank "contact" page! Where, who, what. Leaves a lot to the imagination. Is he some Nigerian king trying to do business in the US?? Wen I clicked on the link I received a "This site is unsecured" warning so,I closed the page! At any rate a blank contract is never a good thing and something I would never leave to fate.
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Post by edwardsutorik on Dec 27, 2018 7:15:38 GMT -8
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Post by gevohogger on Dec 27, 2018 7:29:19 GMT -8
Is it possible that "Big Dawg Originals" has taken his product upmarket? Fancy new website, etc. Blank contact page though...
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Post by Paul Cutler III on Dec 27, 2018 8:28:28 GMT -8
fcixdarrell, "Similar manufacturing processes" between barbeques and model trains? Say what? Yeah, if you only consider that things are made from materials and shipped out.
Especially considering that every grill I've ever bought had to be assembled by the home owner or by the retail store. And from personal experience, there aren't that many parts on a grill, as in less than 50 (and that's counting every nut as a part). A model train can have hundreds of tiny little parts.
How the heck are making barbeques and model trains similar...at all?
Why aren't they made the same way? Automation costs a boatload of money to create. Robots aren't cheap, and the more precise the job, the more expensive the robots get. A BBQ assembly line makes imprecise parts and drops then in a cardboard box for shipping for a market that's estimated at hundreds of millions of people. A model train robot would have to grab a partially assembled painted model, bring it to a jig, drill multiple holes, insert multiple parts with unerring precision (a #80 hole is 0.0135"), and put it back without damaging it for a market of perhaps 250,000 people. How are these processes alike?
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Post by Judge Doom on Dec 27, 2018 8:49:16 GMT -8
Is it possible that "Big Dawg Originals" has taken his product upmarket? Fancy new website, etc. Blank contact page though... Naaahhh, the Dawg copies, not designs his own in CAD like a previous poster mentioned the person here was doing. And plus, after changing from Big Dawg Originals to Pacific Northwest something-or-other Models back when the heat was on him, the Dawg went underground and now has hobby shop CMR Products selling his wares under their Puttman Locomotive Works line. Same dog, different name tag on the collar.
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Post by fcixdarrell on Dec 27, 2018 9:43:03 GMT -8
fcixdarrell, "Similar manufacturing processes" between barbeques and model trains? Say what? Yeah, if you only consider that things are made from materials and shipped out. Especially considering that every grill I've ever bought had to be assembled by the home owner or by the retail store. And from personal experience, there aren't that many parts on a grill, as in less than 50 (and that's counting every nut as a part). A model train can have hundreds of tiny little parts. How the heck are making barbeques and model trains similar...at all? Why aren't they made the same way? Automation costs a boatload of money to create. Robots aren't cheap, and the more precise the job, the more expensive the robots get. A BBQ assembly line makes imprecise parts and drops then in a cardboard box for shipping for a market that's estimated at hundreds of millions of people. A model train robot would have to grab a partially assembled painted model, bring it to a jig, drill multiple holes, insert multiple parts with unerring precision (a #80 hole is 0.0135"), and put it back without damaging it for a market of perhaps 250,000 people. How are these processes alike? Paul, The processes used to assemble barbecues is very similar to what an automated process would be for assembling locomotives or cars. The differences are in the number of steps. A barbecue has lots of sub-assemblies that have to be assembled prior to packaging, like like the grill sections, the burners, putting knobs together (as compared to the end user putting the knobs on the unit), painting, decorating face plates, etc. The processes would be sequenced similarly to a model train as well, with more operations for model trains. Robots are extremely accurate and what they do is repeatable over and over with far greater accuracy than humans. A robot would not need a jig for drilling holes. It is programmed to move to specific locations and drill holes in the exact same spot at the exact same angle at the exact same depth every time. A robot can install/insert parts far more accurately than a person can. Robots assemble computers, cell phones, electronics, stuff far more tolerance critical than model trains, every day, all over the world. Actually, relatively speaking, robotic arms are cheap when compared to other pieces of manufacturing equipment. The interfacing equipment, the custom-built fixtures and conveyors are the expensive parts. A lot of injection molders are automating most of their processes. Like automated arms that grab the sprue as it's ejected from the mold and drop the parts into a box. One shop I am familiar with has two employees overseeing 10 machines, where in the factories that build model trains in China, they typically have a couple of people at each machine. Automation is everywhere in manufacturing and is rapidly expanding. Model train manufacturing has evolved very little since the 1960s. The processes have become a little more complex (more individual parts), but the overall methods have remained virtually unchanged.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2018 11:40:10 GMT -8
Those are great GE stanchions...And, I'd go for the full metal stanchions...For the record...I use the PIA stanchions (Now Precision Scale) for EMD engines now. They are nice and well detailed; a little over-sized...and they are actually a little short in height...but when you use the set for the entire engine; you don't notice the disparity.
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Post by roadkill on Dec 27, 2018 11:54:02 GMT -8
Those are great GE stanchions...And, I'd go for the full metal stanchions...For the record...I use the PIA stanchions (Now Precision Scale) for EMD engines now. They are nice and well detailed; a little over-sized...and they are actually a little short in height...but when you use the set for the entire engine; you don't notice the disparity. Problem is I see the disparity and refuse to use them for that reason. They just look "off".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2018 13:21:55 GMT -8
All the more reasoning for a new; correct version of EMD stanchions!!
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Post by wp8thsub on Dec 27, 2018 14:28:12 GMT -8
Is it possible that "Big Dawg Originals" has taken his product upmarket? Doubtful, but a few months after this thing is released, the Dawg will have a crappy resin knockoff sold through CMR.
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Post by Judge Doom on Dec 27, 2018 14:48:31 GMT -8
Is it possible that "Big Dawg Originals" has taken his product upmarket? Doubtful, but a few months after this thing is released, the Dawg will have a crappy resin knockoff sold through CMR. That will either have Lines West Products as the recommended chassis to use with it (how convenient), be made to fit something totally off like an Atlas SD35 or Athearn Blue-Box SD45 chassis to cater to the budget builder crowd, or have its own resin-cast frame that takes, let's see, Athearn SD45 or F45 trucks
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