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Post by markfj on May 4, 2021 9:05:35 GMT -8
Share your comments and concerns about price increases and supply shortages here.
Anyone price lumber for a layout lately? Do you think prices for things like locomotives and rolling stock are inline with normal inflation or are we seeing hyperinflation?
What common hobby items are you having trouble buying because they are not in stock?
This excerpt is from Blue Ridge Hobbies’ web page:
"Product availability is still an issue and I think by the end of this year there will be a lot of normal items that should be in stock every day will not be available. So think ahead for your fall and winter projects and get the product you will be needing now to make sure that you can continue to move forward with your projects."
So, what items are you stockpiling now?
Thanks, Mark J.
Reading, PA
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Post by riogrande on May 4, 2021 9:31:32 GMT -8
I started my current layout in Dec 2019 and bought most of the lumber I needed before the lumber prices started shooting up spring 2020. Sheets of OSB were $15 before and now about $41. The only thing I have needed since spring 2020 is a few sticks of 1x3 and 1x2 lumber, which is more expensive but hasn't been too big a burden.
Trains made in China have been steadily rising and looking at Athearn announcements in recent months have taken another jump up. The were listing 45' Fruehauf trailers at $34.98 and $39.98 for singles. The 2-packs I bought last in 2013 were $26 MRSP so about 1/3 todays MSRP. Thankfully I won't need anymore of the 45' trailers and snatched up what I needed back then.
Rolling Stock: Athearn and others seem to only manufacture limited supplies so in-demand road names usually sell out in good order, sometimes days, sometimes weeks or a few months. So rolling stock - I haven't noticed much change from the past. If there is something I need, I try to watch for it when released - but that's generally the norm for rolling stock. Unless it's a sales dog, you loose if you snooze.
Flex track and turnouts do seem to be another story. I bought some flex track a within the last few months and it seems harder to find now. I pretty much have what I need but I did some buying ahead.
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Post by jonklein611 on May 4, 2021 9:38:04 GMT -8
Lumber costs will come back down as mills come back online. You'll see some issues on the electronics side (decoders, throttles, etc.) due to the chip shortage.
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Post by riogrande on May 4, 2021 9:42:41 GMT -8
As for throttles, I ordered the TCS UTW wifi combo deal and received my UTW-100 already. The UWT-50 is supposed to be shipped end of July hopefully. I bought a Digitrax LNWI so I can use wifi throttles with my old Chief system.
I've heard of chip shortages affecting auto/truck manufacture. We are having shortages of getting new monitors at work apparently due to glass shortages. Our inventory person said new laptops are 8 weeks behind. Train stuff not sure.
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Post by NS4122 on May 4, 2021 10:44:39 GMT -8
I wanted to order several speakers from Scale Sound Systems, but they are all out of stock due to supply shortages. He was hoping to resume sales in April, but that didn't happen.
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2021 13:21:58 GMT -8
My local store is out of exact knives. The owner told me that a lot of stock like that (I forget the term he used. Edit: might have been warehouse staples?) is getting harder to find.
Due to wfh becoming more permanent, I'm actually looking at taking down my layout and making a new one in a different location. I'm already afraid of what the price for wood will look like and I'm mostly using foam and 1x2s.
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Post by nsc39d8 on May 4, 2021 19:23:31 GMT -8
It's not just hobby supplies it is everything. As my primary job is a Chef, I took delivery of some plastic to go order containers that were a substitution from the vendor for our regular item.
I asked my boss about this and he told me to keep any plastic substitution as the supply was limited. In short if they were sent back we may not have gotten another replacement as someone else
would claim them.
The builder of my nephews house last year doing a remodel for me stated the price now would be $100,000 more for my nephews house, roughly 3000 sq ft. Other item include Heat and Air supplies showing 6 month delay. Living on a 100 acre farm some farm supplies are short. John Deere is having problems with fluid filters, have one tractor in need of hydraulic/tranmission fluid change, my dealer found the filter and told to go get it right away, by the time I got there I got the last one of two in stock.
Not looking to good for now.
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Post by valenciajim on May 4, 2021 21:15:39 GMT -8
I have not priced out any hobby merchandise lately, because they always seem to increase no matter what. However, I looked at prices at Home Depot for lumber and was amazed at how much prices have gone up. I read it costs $36,000 more in California to build a house than last year because of increased lumber costs.
My wife's car has been in the repair shop for three weeks because the dealer cannot locate the replacement parts.
I went to several nurseries, Home Depot and Lowes looking for some plants for my front yard. The prices are triple what they were last year (and last year was higher because of COVID lockdowns). I have some clivia plants that I paid $7.99 for in 2019. Last year the price went up to $11.99. This year, the same size plants are in a bigger pot and the price is $35.99!
We recently added some flooring in our laundry room. we extended the flooring from the laundry room into our mud room. The price was about 27% higher than two years ago. The flooring dealer told me that her cost increased by 30% due to tariffs as the flooring material is made in China. She said she was absorbing part of the price increase for now. I know a lot of building materials are manufactured in China.
I think global supply chains are going to be messed up for awhile resulting in disrupted markets and pricing issues. I recently read somewhere that businesses are no longer using the just in time inventory management because of supply chain problems. This will cause many businesses to increase the amount of inventory they have on hand, which will increase their costs, which will ultimately be passed onto the consumer.
The demand for housing is at all time highs and low interest rates are fueling that. I wonder what happens when the central banks around the world find that they have to raise interest rates to sow down inflation.
We may see a return of the 1970's without bell bottoms, disco and locomotives decorated for the bicentennial.
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Post by Colin 't Hart on May 4, 2021 23:04:28 GMT -8
Lumber costs will come back down as mills come back online. I doubt they will go back down to the same price level; pricing isn't only about supply and demand: it's also about what the market will bear. |
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Post by thejadefog on May 5, 2021 7:42:46 GMT -8
And when/if you come out of the train room don't even think about hitting the rail trails with a bike... 300 linear feet of bike racks and not one adult bike in the local big-box. I work in custom-decorated apparel so it was a miracle over the winter to get fleece items for customers. Now that spring and summer are here, it will soon be impossible to acquire safety green tees!
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Post by riogrande on May 5, 2021 7:44:39 GMT -8
Ah, good thing I saved the bike my wife's former employer gave us and my old bike I got out of my parents basement! Maybe when we get caught up on the house projects some day, we can get them up and running!
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Post by cera2254 on May 5, 2021 8:24:29 GMT -8
As for lumber prices, I guess I probably picked the wrong time to start building. Lol
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Post by riogrande on May 5, 2021 8:29:15 GMT -8
People on MRH forums are lauding the wonders of metal studs. I'm very comfortable working with wood so I'm glad I got most of it before the prices jump.   |
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Post by kentuckysouthernrwy on May 6, 2021 5:51:36 GMT -8
Y’all got your free money from the govment?
I built a new house last year deep in the woods of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula along Lake Michigan, a modest 2 bedroom 24x36 cottage that had cost overage of over $10,000 from our original estimate in late 2019. We’ve been told that our builder would not be able to build it for double the price this year. All in I was $50k over expected cost when green lighted. Lumber supplier’s in MI will not give you a quote that they’ll guarantee for more that 1 week.
When we ordered our appliances last October we were given a 4-6 week projected arrival. They started trickling in in December and it was late January when the last were delivered, March before they were installed. In addition to the material cost over runs, there is nobody that wants to work. Half the restaurants are gone, the others can’t find help. Extra “free” money has created a why work, we will get paid more to sit home mindset.
Gasoline that was $1.60-$2.20/gallon has now hit $3.00. Last Fall’s $40 fill up is now $55. Here in lower Michigan thousands and thousands of cars and trucks are sitting in every empty lot in the area as the automakers are cranking them out unfinished to keep their workers going while waiting for “chips” from China. One Chevrolet dealership I drove past Monday has 2 new trucks on hand. The Toyota dealership I was at yesterday for service has 2. Used vehicles are skyrocketing, as well, when you can find one. I won’t even go into the draconian lockdowns and persecution of resisters, here as way more people around have been sick of the Wuhan-Fauci plague than other states. But, hell, we all got our free stuff haven’t we.
Jim, that’s a darn nice layout your building, by the way.
Enjoy folks, it ain’t even started.
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Post by riogrande on May 6, 2021 6:46:00 GMT -8
Karl... Thankfully I bought 95% of the lumber before the prices shot up. oooohhhh! Brrrrr! Ain't it cold up there? My wife and I bought our home (foreclosure/fixerupper) Nov 2017 and got all new appliances in the Thanksgiving sales. The delivery/installation process was so messed up I had to stay home from work 7 separate days to get it all sorted (Frig, Microwave, Dishwasher, Oven, close washer & dryer). The delivery service was so dysfunctional! In 2018 we were faced with rehabbing the kitchen - it was all worn-out builder appliances and peeling countertops and bad sink, etc. It is probably what kept the house on the market so long. Thankfully we got the kitchen all remodeled in 2018, and the basement finished in 2019 before all this pandemic hoo ha. But we did do a lot of the work ourselves to keep costs down. Kitchen before:  Kitchen after:  I have heard that a lot of employers are having a hard time finding workers due to them getting the free money. They make more on enhanced unemployment than a paying job. It's been a disincentive to get a job and right now there are a lot of services that are lacking due to lack of workers. I'm reading that lack of drivers to deliver gas to gas stations is going to drive up the cost of gas this summer for example. People taking trips may end up paying high prices or even having difficulty finding gas. Might be better to delay trips for a while. Where I live in northern VA we haven't seen what you have been experiencing much. Gas has gone up; where I live it's $2.69. Glad I have a Prius getting around 57 right now and a bit more in summer. I've heard of the chip shortages for auto manufacture. I usually buy used anyway as I can't afford new cars. The 2011 Prius I bought last year was a bargain at $5995 and only 67k miles on it. Cost me around $2k after the insurance payout on the old one plus trade in. I guess all the stimulus checks people got will end up being eaten up by the higher costs of cars, lumber, new homes etc. |
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Post by Christian on May 6, 2021 7:43:41 GMT -8
EDIT
Oops. I got suckered into making a political comment on a model train forum. Hardly the place for polly-ticks. Deleted.
Me bad.
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Post by kentuckysouthernrwy on May 6, 2021 8:11:11 GMT -8
Hate to argue.
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Post by riogrande on May 6, 2021 8:41:20 GMT -8
Aye. Ticks are bad. Poly ticks worse. removed.
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Post by kentuckysouthernrwy on May 6, 2021 18:20:51 GMT -8
Karl... Thankfully I bought 95% of the lumber before the prices shot up. oooohhhh! Brrrrr! Ain't it cold up there? . Cold? Sometimes....My road gets a bit icy..  That road would eat your Prius, I'm afraid, our 2012 4Runner enjoys it as does the Taco..ma... But it's so awesome to get up and look out your bedroom window at...  Lake Michigan We have awesome neighbors...  But....at times It does get a bit testy...
But the fishing is great... _IMG_4796.HEIC) |
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Post by valenciajim on May 7, 2021 15:57:38 GMT -8
Jim--your layout (and kitchen) are impressive. I understand that a prerequisite for getting a layout room and railroad built is getting a new kitchen. Kitchens are slightly more expensive.
Karl--great pictures. Looks a lot different from what we see in SoCal.
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Post by bnsf971 on May 9, 2021 2:32:38 GMT -8
One Chevrolet dealership I drove past Monday has 2 new trucks on hand. The Toyota dealership I was at yesterday for service has 2. Used vehicles are skyrocketing, as well, when you can find one. I work for a very old, well-established RV dealership. Normally at this time of year, we would have over 150 available to sell. We currently have three. Yes, three total.It's tough to sell something you don't have, though the sales department has almost two thousand units pre-sold, with deposits. We are looking at up to a 14 month wait for something ordered today. The parts department can't get parts to sell, the service department can't get parts to fix what's sitting waiting for repairs. Two of the three new units have had parts cannibalized to get other units out the door to help pay the bills that don't stop whether you have something to sell or not. |
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Post by lars on May 11, 2021 5:45:55 GMT -8
I have heard that a lot of employers are having a hard time finding workers due to them getting the free money. They make more on enhanced unemployment than a paying job. It's been a disincentive to get a job and right now there are a lot of services that are lacking due to lack of workers. I'm reading that lack of drivers to deliver gas to gas stations is going to drive up the cost of gas this summer for example. People taking trips may end up paying high prices or even having difficulty finding gas. Might be better to delay trips for a while. More than just unemployment benefits are getting cited for the employment issue. A lot of people still need to be at home due to childcare issues. Also, hiring in some industries like warehousing has been strong and they're paying $15 an hour, which might be stealing employees from lower wage positions in the service industry. |
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Post by lars on May 11, 2021 10:03:27 GMT -8
I've been watching the inflation numbers. March CPI was over 2% YOY. I'm waiting to see if as things open up that spending shifts to travel, entertainment, etc. and takes pressure off of consumer goods. I need to do some work this fall on the house and I hope everybody goes on vacation instead of remodeling. Lumber is crazy. I need new decking and the composite material is much more in line with lumber. However, the last time I looked birch hasn't gone up much relative to builder grade stuff. Traditionally, rolling stock and locomotives have seen price increases that are above inflation. Personally, as things get a bit pricier I'm more interested in dressing up some Accurail kits, Atlas Trainmans or train show finds. I may still end up putting $30+ in a freight car, but it also consumes a good amount of (hopefully enjoyable) time and develops some skill along the way. I sort of feel like I'm getting more bang for my buck there (see Ikea effect). |
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Post by riogrande on May 11, 2021 11:04:43 GMT -8
My deck was neglected by the former owner. My wife and I stripped it down the frame and replaced most of the wood, but we did that back in April 2020 before the prices went crazy. Dodged that Bullet.
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