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Post by nw611 on May 9, 2012 2:10:44 GMT -8
I've noticed that the last new HO Master locomotive model (GP40-2W) was announced in August 2009, almost 3 years ago. I do not understand how a manufacturer like Atlas can survive without bringing new models to the market, also considering that new paint schemes and even new road numbers for locomotives have drastically slowed down. Most of this Forum members are former Atlas Forum members and maybe are in touch with Rob Pisani and other people at Atlas. Is there any explanation for this situation ? Are they planning new locomotive models and waiting for a better economic environment ? What is going on ?
Raffaele Galiano
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2012 4:28:08 GMT -8
One word.....China
I believe it was either Paul Graf of Rob Pisani that stated on the Atlas Forum about six months ago, that Atlas was in the process of making changes in its overseas production suppliers.
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Post by calzephyr on May 9, 2012 5:54:33 GMT -8
One word.....China I believe it was either Paul Graf of Rob Pisani that stated on the Atlas Forum about six months ago, that Atlas was in the process of making changes in its overseas production suppliers. The China connection and production has caused problems with other manufacturers and will probably continue to do so even with prices going up at a rapid rate. Broken gears seems to be the latest problem for many of the BLI products made in China. The model train industry is probably looking for other places to get production started so some of the work load could be shifted out of China. Does anyone know if Atlas had production in the large plant that closed and locked up tooling for Athearn? Larry |
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Post by riogrande on May 9, 2012 7:28:58 GMT -8
Definitely this is not an issue that has affected Atlas only. Athearn's RTR line has nearly come to a screeching halt recently because of closings and losing production ability in China. In a recent statement during the Atlas forum closing, Tom Haedrich reported that Atlas has nearly resolved it's production problems of the last 4 years and should be able to start picking up pace again. Athearn's RTR line has more recently hit their snag, so it may be quite a few months before it picks back up to it's former pace. The Genesis line apparently has had little impediments and will continue to produce and ship, more or less at expected pace.
One of the makers is reportedly moved to Brazil I think? I can't remember if it was Atlas or someone else.
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Post by nw611 on May 9, 2012 8:32:50 GMT -8
I am aware of the problems in China. I buy an average of 40 new European locomotives every year and 95% of them are made in China (5% brass made in South Korea) for several European importers, but I could experience delivery delays of 3 to 6 months maximum. Chinese manufacturers are the same for both American and European models. Although prices in Europe are far higher than in the US (the best locomotives are priced over € 200 = US$ 250 w/o DCC and sound), I know for sure that a number of European importers are barely breaking even. Could it be that Chinese manufacturers push back production of Americam models because European importers pay higher prices ?
Going back to the Atlas problems, in the last 3 years its competitors (Athearn, Bowser, Intermountain, MTH) have announced an average of 3 new locomotive models for each company. There is something I don't understand with Atlas.
Raffaele Galiano
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Post by riogrande on May 9, 2012 8:51:36 GMT -8
I am aware of the problems in China. I buy an average of 40 new European locomotives every year and 95% of them are made in China (5% brass made in South Korea) for several European importers, but I could experience delivery delays of 3 to 6 months maximum. Chinese manufacturers are the same for both American and European models. Although prices in Europe are far higher than in the US (the best locomotives are priced over € 200 = US$ 250 w/o DCC and sound), I know for sure that a number of European importers are barely breaking even. Could it be that Chinese manufacturers push back production of Americam models because European importers pay higher prices ? Economic forces surely play a part as they do with everyone; manufacturers are not immune to biassing to where the money is. If you are offered a better paying job doing a similar type of work, you'll quit the old job for the new. Manufacturers probably do push projects ahead of other in production slots which are higher profit items, absolutely. And this may be an unfair characterization, but I've gathered that asian culture is very practical and they usually will do what is most pragmatic, even if it means following a different decision pattern or system of ethics such as maintaining a strict production order etc. This probably happens in other countries too including here, people are tempted to go with what side their bread is buttered on. Have you noticed that Athearn has started only announcing Genesis items as of late? So why single out Atlas only? Yes, in the last 3 years Athearn has announced and produced a lot of new engines. I have benefited from that production in terms of 8 SD45's and around 9 tunnel motors. But I also point out that this very same line has come to a screeching halt or a drastic slow down. As far as Atlas goes, every company has negotiated their own production with their overseas factories, so each is subject to the terms and conditions in each unique situation. Unless somebody has inside knowledge, I doubt you will get a diffinitive answer on this. The common sense answer is Atlas was more adversely affected by oversea's production, and has hopefully moved their operations to a location which will allow them to resume an average closer to that of the industry. According to Tom, they seem to be close to that goal, unless he is just putting out PR to placate the customer. But I take him at face value and expect we will start to see announcements pick up in the coming months. Only time will tell. |
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Post by Paul Cutler III on May 9, 2012 9:18:32 GMT -8
From the goodbye post from Tom Haedrich, CEO of Atlas Model Railroad Co. Inc.:
"For those of you who are aware of the difficulties of manufacturing overseas you'll know it's been a particularly bumpy ride over the past four years, ever since the financial melt-down of 2008. This event had a tremendous impact on many model railroad companies around the world. I am tempted to write an insider's story of this adventure and how it relates to our industry, but I think I'll save that for something to do in my not too distant retirement years.
Suffice it to say that these last years and the changes they've wrought will continue to result in significant changes for the manner in which this industry is managed and operates in the immediate and near futures. It has taken Atlas four years to deal with the problems at hand. We are very close to resolving almost all difficulties and it is now time to renew our focus and concentrate on rebuilding our core competency, product development."
So as the specifics, you'll have to wait until Mr. Haedrich writes his book.
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Post by riogrande on May 9, 2012 10:02:42 GMT -8
The salient part of Tom's post was:
"It has taken Atlas four years to deal with the problems at hand. We are very close to resolving almost all difficulties"
It was Tom's monologue that I was referring to in my post above to Raffaele Galiano
As Paul implied, unless someone has an inside contact for the gory details, we will probably never know what exactly is going on or the specifics of the delays. Most of us have the "big picture" idea though.
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Post by John Sheridan on May 11, 2012 14:41:06 GMT -8
The salient part of Tom's post was: "It has taken Atlas four years to deal with the problems at hand. We are very close to resolving almost all difficulties" It was Tom's monologue that I was referring to in my post above to Raffaele Galiano As Paul implied, unless someone has an inside contact for the gory details, we will probably never know what exactly is going on or the specifics of the delays. Most of us have the "big picture" idea though. Some of us DO have inside information. Let's just say it is very ugly over there right now & will take years to fix. Some companies will survive - while others will fail. |
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Post by riogrande on May 11, 2012 14:48:55 GMT -8
Do share. Anyhow, it sounds a good time to get out of China?
Regardless, that is why I am not expecting Athearn RTR line to be back very soon.
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Post by espeenut on May 11, 2012 16:11:42 GMT -8
...just happy that I've got almost all of what I "needed", now I can concentrate on getting the new layout up and running...
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Post by rhpd42002 on May 11, 2012 17:24:35 GMT -8
The salient part of Tom's post was: "It has taken Atlas four years to deal with the problems at hand. We are very close to resolving almost all difficulties" It was Tom's monologue that I was referring to in my post above to Raffaele Galiano As Paul implied, unless someone has an inside contact for the gory details, we will probably never know what exactly is going on or the specifics of the delays. Most of us have the "big picture" idea though. Some of us DO have inside information. Let's just say it is very ugly over there right now & will take years to fix. Some companies will survive - while others will fail. If you can share, it would be most appreciated as it makes it a bit better to understand just why things are the way they are. It does sound to me as if it's a classic case of having all of one's eggs in one basket.  I do hope everyone can survive, but we've seen so many come & go over the years. |
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Post by santafe49 on May 11, 2012 18:05:06 GMT -8
Where do you suppose the next "Big" rush for manufacturing to go to? Viet Nam or Bangladesh. Both have coasts subjected to Cyclones which can cause disruptions to production.
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2012 10:34:26 GMT -8
Packing up your ball and glove and leaving China for the wild blue yonder isn't as easy as you may think.
First, you have to have a place to go.
Second, the place you pick has to have the capabilities to manufacture your product BETTER and FASTER than where you are leaving as in China.
Third, you still need a "partner" like you do in China that you can relatively trust. Someone that isn't going to take your money and never produce. Remember, even though things are a little sticky in China right now, they still are capable of doing the job.
Fourth, when you do go to a different country there will be start up costs and who is footing the bill? The U.S. entity, the overseas plant owner or both? So how much do you really want to spend on that locomotive???
Fifth, you will have additional tooling costs for the stuff already tooled. As a person that has knowledge of the workings of the China situation told me, you will get MOST of your tooling from the builder, like the body shell molds. But it will be amazing how the molds for the smaller detail parts like handrails, cab interiors, fans, or the jewelry of the model is somehow....lost! So how much do you want to spend for that freight car?
The reason you haven't seen some mass exodus out of China is its more of a matter of jumping out of the frying pan and straight into the fire. The U.S. manufacturers hands are really tied and it will take years to ATTEMPT to fix the problem. Even then don't look for things to be totally running smoothly. Controlled chaos would be considered a victory.
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Post by Donnell Wells on May 12, 2012 10:54:50 GMT -8
Not to open up another can of worms, BUT, the idea of a stateside consolidated manufacturing plant or plants is starting to look more and more appealing these days...
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2012 11:20:48 GMT -8
Not to open up another can of worms, BUT, the idea of a stateside consolidated manufacturing plant or plants is starting to look more and more appealing these days... Not to bring politics into the discussion, but with the Presidential election along with a third of the Senate and the entire House, companies will be awaiting the outcome and anticipated policy of the administration and Congress. Any decision to move production or part of it back to the states wouldn't happen until after the election. |
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Post by SantaFeJim on May 12, 2012 14:12:38 GMT -8
Not to open up another can of worms, BUT, the idea of a stateside consolidated manufacturing plant or plants is starting to look more and more appealing these days... Not to bring politics into the discussion, but with the Presidential election along with a third of the Senate and the entire House, companies will be awaiting the outcome and anticipated policy of the administration and Congress. Any decision to move production or part of it back to the states wouldn't happen until after the election. I agree with AustralianTerrier 100% on this point. However, there is far more than just the manufacturing fate of some of our favorite hobbies riding on the outcome of the election in November. To those of you that know what I am talking about, NO explanation is necessary. For those that don't, no amount of explanation would ever be enough. |
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Post by nw611 on May 12, 2012 14:35:37 GMT -8
I did not want to start a thread about US Presidential election and its consequences. Most of us (Forum members) are over 50 and we know very well that the Western World is losing its leadership and that we are the last generation doing better than our parents. I was just trying to understand why Atlas fell behind its competition.
Raffaele Galiano
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Post by nw611 on May 12, 2012 14:44:02 GMT -8
And about bringing back production to the US, I remember reading on the old Atlas Forum an estimate by Mr. English (Bowser) calculating that a locomotive made in the United States would cost 3 times the same locomotive made in China.
R. Galiano
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Post by umtrrauthor on May 12, 2012 15:20:09 GMT -8
Should there be any interest in moving out of China, there is also the issue of getting the tooling back. My understanding of the situation is that this is a non-trivial problem.
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Post by calzephyr on May 12, 2012 15:57:39 GMT -8
Should there be any interest in moving out of China, there is also the issue of getting the tooling back. My understanding of the situation is that this is a non-trivial problem. The tooling for the Athearn RTR items and the Gensis MT4 is still locked up in the plant that closed in China. It sounds like the problem will continue with the tooling being on hold until their officials can deal with the situation. I was in line to get one of the MT4's with the sky line streamlined look but it is on hold now. Larry |
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2012 17:02:37 GMT -8
Packing up your ball and glove and leaving China for the wild blue yonder isn't as easy as you may think. First, you have to have a place to go. Second, the place you pick has to have the capabilities to manufacture your product BETTER and FASTER than where you are leaving as in China. Third, you still need a "partner" like you do in China that you can relatively trust. Someone that isn't going to take your money and never produce. Remember, even though things are a little sticky in China right now, they still are capable of doing the job. Fourth, when you do go to a different country there will be start up costs and who is footing the bill? The U.S. entity, the overseas plant owner or both? So how much do you really want to spend on that locomotive??? Fifth, you will have additional tooling costs for the stuff already tooled. As a person that has knowledge of the workings of the China situation told me, you will get MOST of your tooling from the builder, like the body shell molds. But it will be amazing how the molds for the smaller detail parts like handrails, cab interiors, fans, or the jewelry of the model is somehow....lost! So how much do you want to spend for that freight car? The reason you haven't seen some mass exodus out of China is its more of a matter of jumping out of the frying pan and straight into the fire. The U.S. manufacturers hands are really tied and it will take years to ATTEMPT to fix the problem. Even then don't look for things to be totally running smoothly. Controlled chaos would be considered a victory. The only one that is close to being able to move somewhere else (if necessary) is ExactRail. They do their own tooling...run their own plastic...and package up their cars and ship to China for assembly and painting. Maybe ExactRail will bring the painting and assembly back to the US as well? |
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Post by riggelweg on May 12, 2012 18:59:13 GMT -8
Should there be any interest in moving out of China, there is also the issue of getting the tooling back. My understanding of the situation is that this is a non-trivial problem. Does Atlas own the tooling? Even if it does, if the manufacturing company refuses to return it, the only way to get it back is via the legal system, and the legal system in China is often unfair to foreign companies. |
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Post by riggelweg on May 12, 2012 19:06:20 GMT -8
Packing up your ball and glove and leaving China for the wild blue yonder isn't as easy as you may think. First, you have to have a place to go. Second, the place you pick has to have the capabilities to manufacture your product BETTER and FASTER than where you are leaving as in China. Third, you still need a "partner" like you do in China that you can relatively trust. Someone that isn't going to take your money and never produce. Remember, even though things are a little sticky in China right now, they still are capable of doing the job. Fourth, when you do go to a different country there will be start up costs and who is footing the bill? The U.S. entity, the overseas plant owner or both? So how much do you really want to spend on that locomotive??? Fifth, you will have additional tooling costs for the stuff already tooled. As a person that has knowledge of the workings of the China situation told me, you will get MOST of your tooling from the builder, like the body shell molds. But it will be amazing how the molds for the smaller detail parts like handrails, cab interiors, fans, or the jewelry of the model is somehow....lost! So how much do you want to spend for that freight car? The reason you haven't seen some mass exodus out of China is its more of a matter of jumping out of the frying pan and straight into the fire. The U.S. manufacturers hands are really tied and it will take years to ATTEMPT to fix the problem. Even then don't look for things to be totally running smoothly. Controlled chaos would be considered a victory. The only one that is close to being able to move somewhere else (if necessary) is ExactRail. They do their own tooling...run their own plastic...and package up their cars and ship to China for assembly and painting. Maybe ExactRail will bring the painting and assembly back to the US as well? I understand that Kadee's rolling stock is not exactly cheap, but what I've seen is extremely nice, and they're made in the U.S. I know not everyone can follow Kadee's business model, but it does show that manufacturing in the U.S. can be possible. |
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Post by riogrande on May 13, 2012 3:52:52 GMT -8
Historically, KD's rolling stock isn't much more expensive that todays RTR stuff. But I haven't check on their latest prices.
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Post by nw611 on May 13, 2012 4:46:11 GMT -8
Riggelweg, probably you are right. If Atlas started a litigation with its Chinese manufacturer, its tooling may be in the wrong hands and inactive. I remember that the bank I was working for, in the eighties, established a leasing company in joint venture with a Chinese Province (Guang Dong) to promote export of Italian machinery to China. This leasing company never received any instalment from the Chinese lessors, while the pieces of machinery were already been paid to the Italian manufacturers and owned by the leasing company. Every action to repossess the machinery from the insolvent Chinese lessors was rejected by Chinese Courts and the final solution for the bank was to take a loss and forget doing business with China. Ciao. R. Galiano
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Post by riogrande on May 13, 2012 4:49:07 GMT -8
Wow Mr. G, Lets hope that doesn't happen to Athearn. My guess is we will see the RTR line continue after they get moved. I haven't heard of any situations like you described above yet.
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Post by umtrrauthor on May 13, 2012 5:17:33 GMT -8
Historically, KD's rolling stock isn't much more expensive that todays RTR stuff. But I haven't check on their latest prices. I think they've gone up a bit since first introduced, but the other brands have more than caught up in some cases. www.kadee.com/ca/preorder.htm |
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Post by riogrande on May 13, 2012 5:20:50 GMT -8
Thats what I am thinking. An aweful lot of RTR stuff now retails in the $30-40 price range, and KADEE seems to be right in there - the only thing I'm not sure of is can you get a discount off of KD. At least most of the $30-40 stuff I can find for about $30% off.
I still don't own any KD, but I need to pick up a few because they have a 50' box car that matches box cars commonly seen in the 60's and 70's and the 2-bay cement hopper is a good match also for a class from D&RGW.
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Post by tom on May 13, 2012 12:28:05 GMT -8
[/quote] I think they've gone up a bit since first introduced, but the other brands have more than caught up in some cases. www.kadee.com/ca/preorder.htm[/quote] Kadee's cars have gone up in price slightly so now instead of being some of the most expensive RTR cars they are either cheaper or about the same price as other RTR cars. Kadee has also improved the cars since they have come out as the now have the scale coupler as standard and the trucks have been improved. |
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