If China invades Taiwan, what happens to model manufacture?

[riogrande]

As we know, most of our toys are made in China and have been for many years. As time goes by Xi has consolidated his power and has been threatening to invade Taiwan. Hardly much time goes by without him breathing threats to invade Taiwan anymore.

It makes me wonder, having watched what sanctions have happened to Russia, how might the model manufacture industry be affected in this scenario?

[hudsonyard]

I don't see China going through with it, a lot of this is western drum beating. The CCP are true dialectical materialists and Xi is a Marxist scholar, the ramifications of such an action would interrupt the decades long planning the Chinese have been executing for the last number of years. This isn't America where they have 2 year election cycles, corporate donors and a constantly expanding military industrial complex to answer to. They are traditionally not the type to embark on military adventurism, and when they do, it hasn't gone well (sino-vietnamese conflict comes to mind) however if it DID happen, 1. there are much bigger issues than model railroading 2. you better start really liking kadee freight cars, because they are the only new product you will see for a while.

[edwardsutorik]

Might want to turn to building all those resin kits stuck away in the closet. A newly happy and peaceful world would probably have happened by the time I finish all of mine.

And if the conflict just refuses to end, I can paint all those brass trains that are ALSO in the closet.


Ed

[riogrande]

No shortage here.

[valenciajim]

I can imagine potentially China falling apart. When I was in high school, I was required to take a course on non-European world history. I took the course in the fall of 1970. I remember one of the things about China is that over the centuries it consolidates and then breaks apart. I have not studied China since then, but it sure looks like they are at about the limit of the consolidation phase. I think that the Chinese are facing some pretty strong financial headwinds right now and from what I have read Xi may not be in the best of health. So, I don't know whether it turns to becoming an even more military state. I don't see the Chinese people returning to a Mao-like totalitarian state. Invasion of Taiwan is certainly possible, but logistically more challenging than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China has a better army and better weapons than Russia, so it is certainly possible.

If that happens, I think we will have bigger issues to worry about than model trains. Irrespective of what happens with Taiwan, our hobby will inevitably find an alternative solution to Chinese manufacturing. Perhaps 3D printing--just look at Adam's 3D printed PRR flatcar in today's Sunday photos. It is only a matter of time until the cost of that technology drops to the point where it is commercially feasible to manufacture for resale using that technology rather than importing merchandise from overseas.

[alexandrianick]

Nov 13, 2022 11:14:11 GMT -8 valenciajim said:

China has a better army and better weapons than Russia, so it is certainly possible.

Although one they haven't used in more than 40 years, against a pretty hardened target, in one of most technically challenging environments around. Can you imagine how tricky D-Day would have been if the Germans could have instant early warning that an invasion was coming and put weapons on target the entire crossing?

I don't see China being that eager to waste materiel.

[ed]

At that point, I would think that we would have more serious quality of life issues that would immediately concern us.

[edwardsutorik]

I would think that China might be observing how welcome the Russians were in Ukraine, and be wondering if the Taiwanese might be equally cranky at having a bunch of unwelcome visitors.

A smart China would say "We'll be happy to have you back in the bosom of your loving family any time you want to come home. Love, China."

Mayyybe someday.............


Ed

[severn]

Generally an invasion of Taiwan has an assumption built into it that we would essentially do nothing, and Taiwan would crumble fast, and then after the usual noise, they'd have it and we'd live with it. And your model trains would experience but a hiccup in trade.

And we have given them some basis to believe this could be true. After all we did nothing about Hong Kong. And we did nothing about those pesky islands in the South China sea.

And, over in other parts of the world we appeared to draw various "red lines" only to abandon them.

So given that it isn't any wonder that an invasion of Taiwan seemed more realistic even up to just months ago.

But things have changed a little recently and while I still think an invasion is very likely... The exact set of circumstances has shifted and seems to now be off again to sometime further down the road, off into the future.

Even so I think ultimately this really is completely up to Taiwan to counteract and it's not clear they really have faced up to it.

And although we've recently said we'd defend them, which is probably the right thing to say today. It's not really clear we mean it past multiple presidents who haven't come along yet.

But if Taiwan really means it & invest in defense appropriately then this would probably with partners like the US make it just about impossible for China to pull off an invasion in any realistic and cost effective way.

It'd be cheaper then and more successful in my opinion to go at it with chocolate and flowers. Maybe the next generation of Chinese leader will be more of a romantic. The current ones appear drawn to thuggery.

[valenciajim]

One of the results of Ukraine is that more nations like south Korea, Taiwan and Japan are likely to significantly beef up their defenses. I would not be surprised to see them develop nuclear capabilities as a deterrent.

From what I have read in economic publications, I think China is potentially on the verge of economic collapse. I have also read that there is a lot of political unrest in China that is being suppressed by the COVID lockdowns. COVID is a convenient excuse, but that excuse can only last so long.

From our vantage point, it is hard to tell what is going on. China is one of many places in the world where things are not always as they appear.

Anyway, this has been an interesting (and civil) discussion. I appreciate everyone's input.

I am going to return to working on a second Tichy flat car kit.

[riogrande]

Nov 16, 2022 10:12:21 GMT -8 valenciajim said:

One of the results of Ukraine is that more nations like south Korea, Taiwan and Japan are likely to significantly beef up their defenses. I would not be surprised to see them develop nuclear capabilities as a deterrent.

From what I have read in economic publications, I think China is potentially on the verge of economic collapse. I have also read that there is a lot of political unrest in China that is being suppressed by the COVID lockdowns. COVID is a convenient excuse, but that excuse can only last so long.

From our vantage point, it is hard to tell what is going on. China is one of many places in the world where things are not always as they appear.

Anyway, this has been an interesting (and civil) discussion. I appreciate everyone's input.

I am going to return to working on a second Tichy flat car kit.

Right. China has been closely watching how the world reacts to the Ukraine conflict because it is similar. It is a territory that was once part of another country who wants to take it back, by force if necessary.

As far as unrest goes, it seems China's dictator will simply put down any protests using police or army, in a brutal manner if need be. As you mentioned, it's hard to tell what is going on inside because China tries hard to strictly control what information gets out. I have found some interesting youtube channels run by a couple of westerners (one South African and one American) who lived in china for 14 and 10 years, respectively. They were able to get a good inside view of the country during the rise of Xi Jinping to power until they left a year or so ago. They did a lot of v-logging while there which are fascinating to watch, but they gave a good look from the inside from what all they saw. Again, very fascinating. If I recall correctly, people in China can still get past the censors using VPN software.

[jeoffreythecat]

We are familiar with seasonal freight cars produced for holidays, Super Bowl, etc. So if a company decided to produce a series of cars saying "Free Tibet", would the Chinese government arrange to have the tooling and designs "lost"?

[riogrande]

The Chinese gov hates anything negative said about them. They have been after the two v-loggers I've watched on youtube since they moved to the US. Even tried to hire them.

[edwardsutorik]

Nov 16, 2022 14:16:08 GMT -8 jeoffreythecat said:

We are familiar with seasonal freight cars produced for holidays, Super Bowl, etc. So if a company decided to produce a series of cars saying "Free Tibet", would the Chinese government arrange to have the tooling and designs "lost"?

Is that an American company or a Chinese company? There's no way a Chinese company would even think about doing such a project, so the Chinese government doesn't actually have to DO anything.

Neither would a Chinese company produce such a thing for an American company (see above).


Ed

[atsf_4]

This is not me trying to sound crass in any way.

The reality is I always end up buying more trains than I really need and then end up re-selling some for whatever reason (changing interest, a better model comes along, or it turns out to be very incorrect, etc etc).

If the flow of new product from China was completely cut off, I already have enough trains on hand to last me for the rest of my life (especially considering what I have out on consignment). Even if I wore out some of the engines (which almost never happens) I would have enough engines to easily get me through another 20 or 30 years assuming average 1 hour of running time per day, and assuming the average current diesel will last 1000 hours before it fails.

There is a plethora of new old stock or lightly used trains available at train shows and on ebay. That market would become leaner and prices would go up, but there would still be trains to run.  Also, some of the trains are made in South Korea and Japan (Kato), so an end of Chinese production would not end the availability of all new models though it would cut down a good bit on variety.

I have worn out the Model Power/Austria RF-16, but that was after many thousands of layout laps at 100% full speed (I was a kid and would do 200 to 300 1.3-scale-mile laps at a time). Still, the gears lasted through 3 can motors and were still functional when the last motor was dying. It was a great engine indeed!  Besides that RF-16 and a Mantua Alco Century that likely exceeded 1000 hours, nothing else has ever died for me.  Engines were totalled by accidents or drops, but not because they wore out.

[valenciajim]

Most of what I buy these days are Accurail, Bowser or some other brand of kits. I recently purchased two Owl Nodels SP flat car kits that I am looking forward to building. I get much more enjoyment out of painting decaling and assembling kits. Most of that is made in America. My biggest problem these days is getting paint. Nobody seems to have the color I need. But that is another topic for another thread.

[atsf_4]

Not necessarily due to this thread, but more due to the current situation as it is, I just purchased 3 slightly different BLI ATSF E units. I don't care for BLI's sound (horrible speakers) but can mute that. Otherwise, they will be just what I need for the layout now and in the future. Although I actually have 12 diesels or so on pre-order, I could sell every single one of them if/when they ever arrive. I have more than I need, lol.

[wjstix]

There's a reasonably good chance China invading Taiwan would set off World War III, so model train availability might not be that big a concern. What was the old George Carlin "Al Sleet - the Hippy-Dippy weatherman" bit? "The radar picked up a line of thunderstorms coming in from the west. But it also picked some Russian Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles coming over the North Pole, so I wouldn't sweat about the thunderstorms." 

[riogrande]

Nov 23, 2022 9:16:24 GMT -8 atsf_4 said:

This is not me trying to sound crass in any way.

The reality is I always end up buying more trains than I really need and then end up re-selling some for whatever reason (changing interest, a better model comes along, or it turns out to be very incorrect, etc etc).

If the flow of new product from China was completely cut off, I already have enough trains on hand to last me for the rest of my life (especially considering what I have out on consignment). Even if I wore out some of the engines (which almost never happens) I would have enough engines to easily get me through another 20 or 30 years assuming average 1 hour of running time per day, and assuming the average current diesel will last 1000 hours before it fails.

This is true for me also. Heck when I retire, and have a lot less money to spend on train, I'll be in a position to sell stuff to generate cash for that purpose.

There is a plethora of new old stock or lightly used trains available at train shows and on ebay. That market would become leaner and prices would go up, but there would still be trains to run.  Also, some of the trains are made in South Korea and Japan (Kato), so an end of Chinese production would not end the availability of all new models though it would cut down a good bit on variety.

Very true. But the end of Chinese production might eventually increase the prices of some models we have as some product becomes harder to find.