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Post by jlwii2000 on Jan 10, 2014 11:13:26 GMT -8
I have recently noticed a couple websites with MTH NS heritage locomotives on clearance for $150 with sound (50% off MSRP) when they have only been out for a few months. What do you think the cause of these sales could be? Overstock? I can't say I've seen Athearn heritage products that discounted anywhere yet. Max of 30% for Athearn. I've noticed MTH locos still aren't selling very well at those discounts. Is this an indication that the product is not widely desired or am I looking to deeply into this?
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Post by stevewagner on Jan 10, 2014 11:17:53 GMT -8
One big Internet and brick-and-mortar dealer sent out an e-mail ad today with very deep discounts on Bowser Alco Century six-axle units -- but I'm pretty sure that they're units with the sound system Bowser has switched away from for its latest production.
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Post by mlehman on Jan 10, 2014 11:24:14 GMT -8
It's just after the end of the year. In states that tax inventory, this may reflect product moved out prior to year end. It may now be in the hands of folks who got a deal on it and are ready to start moving it out.
Of course, it could still be distressed in some way and this simply accounts for the timing, not other issues. But last year's model isn't exactly broken in most cases, just something the mfg has moved on from offering.
Then there's the MTH effect, where a few of us view every such product as inherently distressed because of a history of MTH generating uncalled for distress. YMMV
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Post by sd80macs on Jan 10, 2014 11:26:03 GMT -8
I have recently noticed a couple websites with MTH NS heritage locomotives on clearance for $150 with sound (50% off MSRP) when they have only been out for a few months. What do you think the cause of these sales could be? Overstock? I can't say I've seen Athearn heritage products that discounted anywhere yet. Max of 30% for Athearn. I've noticed MTH locos still aren't selling very well at those discounts. Is this an indication that the product is not widely desired or am I looking to deeply into this? Prob not as My distributor recently was blowing out MTH SD70ACE's for $102 each as they werent moving. I think more and more people are having problems with the locos as you can see on various forums and MTH doesnt really help to much or takes forever so fix anything. Doesnt take much for word to spread and sales to go down. |
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Post by bnsf971 on Jan 10, 2014 11:33:35 GMT -8
One big Internet and brick-and-mortar dealer sent out an e-mail ad today with very deep discounts on Bowser Alco Century six-axle units -- but I'm pretty sure that they're units with the sound system Bowser has switched away from for its latest production. That theory isn't quite right, either. Some of the offered units have the current crop of sound decoders in them. |
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Post by calzephyr on Jan 10, 2014 11:46:26 GMT -8
I have recently noticed a couple websites with MTH NS heritage locomotives on clearance for $150 with sound (50% off MSRP) when they have only been out for a few months. What do you think the cause of these sales could be? Overstock? I can't say I've seen Athearn heritage products that discounted anywhere yet. Max of 30% for Athearn. I've noticed MTH locos still aren't selling very well at those discounts. Is this an indication that the product is not widely desired or am I looking to deeply into this? James I believe sales are slow and stock needs to be turned over to get other items that might sell. I just posted the "TrainWorld" ad which is a little higher than the price you posted, but the MTH models are not normally discounted very much. Maybe a second factor is involved in the sale prices, the SD70Ace has been produced by Athearn which is a much more accurate model and now Bachmann coming into the market soon with the same unit. A third factor might be the tax in some states for inventory in stock coming soon. Larry |
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Post by atsfan on Jan 10, 2014 12:18:28 GMT -8
The end of the year tax issue is a phantom, especially in January.
The simple fact is the MTH engines are not that good. I have a few from early on, but now the Athearn units are clearly superior.
I held the MTH units in my hands, and put them back down.
Add in that most model train products are over priced.
People are not spending as much now. I am an example of that, and I am not alone.
The Heritage units are one offs. If you own one, you don't need a second of that roadname.
Add in the MTH policy of not honoring sales via most dealers for repair.
The economy is lousy. Health care costs are skyrocketing upward. Job market is lousy unless you want to get minimum wage.
The list goes on......................
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Post by theengineshed on Jan 10, 2014 15:01:09 GMT -8
There is a lot of inventory out there right now...
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Post by jlwii2000 on Jan 10, 2014 16:40:43 GMT -8
You guys have some interesting points. I'm not sure what it is, it just struck me as interesting because I haven't seen that deep of discounts from Athearn so I didn't think it was an overstock or end of year thing. However, I could be wrong as well.
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Post by valenciajim on Jan 10, 2014 16:40:56 GMT -8
Inventory is not turning right now. I am bombarded with daily messages from numerous on-line retailers. My LHS says business is as slow as it has ever been.
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Post by railfan4life on Jan 10, 2014 17:45:33 GMT -8
I think there is still a lot of inventory in general left over, but the MTH engines do seem to sit around longer. I agree with your premiss that MTH engines don't seem to be as widely coveted as engines from other manufactures.
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Post by bigblow69 on Jan 10, 2014 17:54:08 GMT -8
I thought people can only consume so much, yet the container trains keep rolling along. Click-ity clack.
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Post by wmcbride on Jan 10, 2014 19:04:53 GMT -8
I considered one of the PS3 MTH Heritage units at MB Klein's for $150 but passed. I like the one MTH PS3 SD70ACe I have from the earlier runs.
However, many of the product photos (I assume MTH did them since they appear lots of places) I have seen showed some really crooked stanchions and handrails and, if these are their marketing photos, I don't know what care they put into the fit and finish of regular production models.
Besides, I don't have a spare $150 now and don't NEED a new engine.
Bill McBride
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Post by trebor on Jan 10, 2014 19:31:07 GMT -8
My knee JERK response would be its NS, but as previously mentioned in other threads I have imbibed in not only NS but evil Amsquish.
Perhaps the pre-order phenomenon is a contributor. Brick and mortar stores who actually want to have stock may overdo it? My dopey LHS sometimes over orders by accident too.
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Post by atsfan on Jan 10, 2014 20:18:13 GMT -8
It was not long ago blowouts where common.
So this isn't crazy to see happening.
As for slow sales, easy to see why.
Prices are high, product is hard to find due to no stores, economy is lousy, prices for everything in life are going through the roof.
Model trains are a high end hobby, not food.
Importers need to remember that.
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Post by Brakie on Jan 10, 2014 21:15:56 GMT -8
It was not long ago blowouts where common. Model trains are a high end hobby, not food. Importers need to remember that. Only if one wants the newest toys.. I still buy use,I find the better deal-even on e-Bay-and I have quit buying the high end cars and like many others I turn to the older LL P2K blue,brown and silver box,Atlas yellow and red box that sells for a fraction of what the new ones cost... The cost of the hobby is the amount you what to put in it. |
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Post by trebor on Jan 10, 2014 21:24:52 GMT -8
Another reason, it's more likely to make an impulse sale at a LHS than on line. I really have to want it to try to get it mail order by any method. Realistically less than .01% of my stuff was from mail - on line.
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Post by railfan4life on Jan 10, 2014 21:29:13 GMT -8
The cost of the hobby is the amount you what to put in it. And the amount of enjoyment you get out of the hobby is not necessarily proportional to the amount of money you put into it. |
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Post by thebessemerkid on Jan 10, 2014 21:38:21 GMT -8
I think there are a number of factors in play: we are getting bombarded with new releases; c430's, gp40-2's, metroliners, genesis f's, IMRC cab-forwards and on and on. Timing (just after Christmas) is difficult to understand - I guess it's whenever the containers arrive... Despite the advertised low unemployment rate, fewer people are working now than at any time since 1978: link
seems that most have time or money (rarely both) and the amount of engines and rolling stock is exceeding the market's ability to absorb it. Especially with $200-300 engines in one run only road numbers. If you want the GM50 gp40-2 or the PRR metroliners you have to pull the trigger now, or play eBay roulette. I'd love to get a bunch of the Exactrail coil cars (as one example), but absent discounts beyond the 10% for 6+, I just can't swing it after a flood of engines. I'd love a cab-forward even though I don't model Espee, just awful tough deciding where limited funds go. Happy as heck with what I can afford, but I see even more restricted offerings in the future. I won't do pre-orders. Future is just too uncertain. There was a *lively* discussion on the Athearn facebook page a week or two ago regarding lower volumes of gp40-2's along with Athearn whining about being stuck with too many gp50's (duh!). I like FB as much as pre-orders, so don't have the link, but got there from the Athearn home page. Toss in the occasional brass and whoosh, there goes the budget. |
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Post by lvrr325 on Jan 10, 2014 23:39:22 GMT -8
IMHO the MTH (and some Broadway Limited stuff too) are overstock, the Bowser may be to an extent too. You can only sell most guys so many $300, $400, $500 locomotives, and as discussed in the hobby shop thread, the product has a relatively short lifespan these days. I'm going to use it as an excuse to pick up a C630 to go with my C430.
Which, one thing, if you're on the fence on picking one up you can always buy it, make sure it works, and put it away. Chances are some of them, when nobody has them in stock, will be worth posting on eBay if you change your mind in six months or a year.
I suspect part of the problem with the Bowser big Centuries is there's a saturation on them from the earlier runs by Stewart, which may have made buyers leery on them. I know I'm not happy when I buy something for regular price and it's not that great (or even if it is decent) and then they come out with an improved version that makes mine worth less than half what I paid for it.
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Post by Brakie on Jan 11, 2014 3:09:15 GMT -8
The cost of the hobby is the amount you what to put in it. And the amount of enjoyment you get out of the hobby is not necessarily proportional to the amount of money you put into it. Very true Kevin.. I have a old Athearn GP7 that is still my favorite switch engine.I use this simple "outdated" engine more then my higher price engines. |
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Post by lvrr325 on Jan 11, 2014 3:45:43 GMT -8
I actually have a fair collection of what you'd call "tinplate" HO - Lionel, Gilbert HO, Marx, Revell, Tyco, plus Varney and early Athearn stuff. I love some of those pieces, even as goofy as they can be - for instance a Marx generic sort of GP7 with the short hood a bunch wider than the long hood, super crude details, and to top it off this one is factory painted Armour Yellow and grey with red lettering that reads "A.T. & S. F." .... I saw that and knew I needed to own it.
But I also know as a seller at shows it's rare anyone wants to spend more than about $20, which is why I said there's only so many folks who will buy this big money stuff.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2014 7:09:24 GMT -8
The current glut of merchandise on the hobby shop and warehouse shelves can be compared to overfeeding your goldfish. It can become constipated. It's belly can become distended. The water it lives in can become cloudy. Algae can start to grow in the tank. Ultimately, the fish can die.
Good grief, the amount of new product dumped on the market just before Christmas and now in January by the manufacturers is mind blowing. How many different road names and numbers did Bowser release all at one time with the C430? Then you have had the race by various manufacturers to capitalize on the Norfolk Southern's Heritage Locomotive program. Now you have Walthers giving us four car Metroliner sets for a mere $1199!!!!!
This doesn't include the "mundane" stuff like Walthers Proto SD45's, commuter F-units, Athearn's slug of GP38/40/50's, GP7/9's, GP35's, DDA40X's, etc. etc. etc.
Atlas has been releasing some products too, albeit previous models with some re-working. Intermountain just released the SP AC-12, round three. The list goes on.
Let's not forget the pre-ordered stuff not yet here like SDP45's, another round of E8/9's from BLI and on and on and on......
The hobby of model railroading is not that big of a hobby. Now remove the model railroaders that currently do not have the financial means or do not want to spend the money on the latest and the greatest. There is only so much the remaining model railroaders can digest before they like the goldfish become constipated.
The one of a kind rare model or special model WILL CONTINUE TO SELL for good money, because people will sacrifice something in order to get a particular piece. But there is nothing special about most if not all of this current crop of new models clogging up the shelves. Sure, something like the undecorated Bowser C430 which was done in very small numbers may be hard to find. But, go put it one up for sale on e-Bay and you may quickly find out that it may sell for much less than what you paid for it. So is it really that rare and sought after?
The pages of this forum are filled with people bemoaning the death the local hobby shop. How there is no place to see the new models. How they will not pre-order and must touchy feely a piece before buying. The hobby shops and e-tailers are a lot like riverboat gamblers and bet that they can quickly move stock up and beyond their firm customer pre-orders on at least certain road names or models. The trouble is Athearn, Bowser, Walthers, Intermountain, Rapido, MTH, did I leave anyone out?, is between upcoming production and the current stuff released within the last six months, overfed the model railroad fishy. The model railroader will survive, it's the retailers that are going to feel the pain. This is not good. It may be great to pick up $300 locomotives for over half off, but that money lost by the retailer will eventually have to be made up somewhere.
The problems now being experienced by the retailers may be felt by the consumer in the future. Instead of stocking extra stock, the stores may cut their orders so they aren't stuck with merchandise they can't sell for a profit. There is no such thing as breakeven in business, either you make money or you loose money. Does selling off stale stock when you've had healthy pre-order sales really hurt a store? Yes, for any money lost on the sale of the unsold stock eats into the profits of the merchandise sold at "regular" prices. Stores can only really do this for so long before they have to reevaluate their buying.
Which means ......que the choir.......less on the shelves and the crabbing about the death of the local hobby shop and the lack of new merchandise on the shelves of said hobby shop will echo loudly on these pages of this forum.....
As Yogi Berra said....."It's deja vu all over again".
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Post by atsfan on Jan 11, 2014 8:09:38 GMT -8
The current glut of merchandise on the hobby shop and warehouse shelves can be compared to overfeeding your goldfish. It can become constipated. It's belly can become distended. The water it lives in can become cloudy. Algae can start to grow in the tank. Ultimately, the fish can die. Good grief, the amount of new product dumped on the market just before Christmas and now in January by the manufacturers is mind blowing. How many different road names and numbers did Bowser release all at one time with the C430? Then you have had the race by various manufacturers to capitalize on the Norfolk Southern's Heritage Locomotive program. Now you have Walthers giving us four car Metroliner sets for a mere $1199!!!!! This doesn't include the "mundane" stuff like Walthers Proto SD45's, commuter F-units, Athearn's slug of GP38/40/50's, GP7/9's, GP35's, DDA40X's, etc. etc. etc. Atlas has been releasing some products too, albeit previous models with some re-working. Intermountain just released the SP AC-12, round three. The list goes on. Let's not forget the pre-ordered stuff not yet here like SDP45's, another round of E8/9's from BLI and on and on and on...... The hobby of model railroading is not that big of a hobby. Now remove the model railroaders that currently do not have the financial means or do not want to spend the money on the latest and the greatest. There is only so much the remaining model railroaders can digest before they like the goldfish become constipated. The one of a kind rare model or special model WILL CONTINUE TO SELL for good money, because people will sacrifice something in order to get a particular piece. But there is nothing special about most if not all of this current crop of new models clogging up the shelves. Sure, something like the undecorated Bowser C430 which was done in very small numbers may be hard to find. But, go put it one up for sale on e-Bay and you may quickly find out that it may sell for much less than what you paid for it. So is it really that rare and sought after? The pages of this forum are filled with people bemoaning the death the local hobby shop. How there is no place to see the new models. How they will not pre-order and must touchy feely a piece before buying. The hobby shops and e-tailers are a lot like riverboat gamblers and bet that they can quickly move stock up and beyond their firm customer pre-orders on at least certain road names or models. The trouble is Athearn, Bowser, Walthers, Intermountain, Rapido, MTH, did I leave anyone out?, is between upcoming production and the current stuff released within the last six months, overfed the model railroad fishy. The model railroader will survive, it's the retailers that are going to feel the pain. This is not good. It may be great to pick up $300 locomotives for over half off, but that money lost by the retailer will eventually have to be made up somewhere. The problems now being experienced by the retailers may be felt by the consumer in the future. Instead of stocking extra stock, the stores may cut their orders so they aren't stuck with merchandise they can't sell for a profit. There is no such thing as breakeven in business, either you make money or you loose money. Does selling off stale stock when you've had healthy pre-order sales really hurt a store? Yes, for any money lost on the sale of the unsold stock eats into the profits of the merchandise sold at "regular" prices. Stores can only really do this for so long before they have to reevaluate their buying. Which means ......que the choir.......less on the shelves and the crabbing about the death of the local hobby shop and the lack of new merchandise on the shelves of said hobby shop will echo loudly on these pages of this forum..... As Yogi Berra said....."It's deja vu all over again". Yep. I am spending money on the hobby, but on on trains. Geting a building ready for layout costs money. I have more trains than I can use. Right now I don't know of any new products I MUST HAVE. There are things I would like to have, but I also just got the CC bill in the mail. Not to mention other things which cost big bucks like food, gasoline, insurance, health stuff, etc, etc. |
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Post by WP 257 on Jan 11, 2014 9:00:58 GMT -8
Holy cow Batman! Gimme a break. Has nobody here ever heard of "After-Christmas sales"  ? Stores like modeltrainstuff.com routinely have blowout sales on anything that has been sitting around a little bit too long. Since I shop some of those websites all the freakin' time, I don't really see they are doing anything different from what they've always done. For every few models that actually make it to blowout sales, there are plenty of models that come in, are there for only a couple days, and then are gone and cannot be replaced. Just try finding some of the recent passenger car releases--some are just gone. Unless you have and are willing to share real data--as in store X's sales were down Y-% over last year and Z-% over the last several years (which would indicate an actual trend), nobody can actually prove a "problem" exists. Then any actual decline in store sales would need to be measured against any increase in online sales to see if they match. Online sales are most likely up, so a few more stores closing does not necessarily indicate the "death" of the hobby--only the transfer of some buyers to more online shopping. So what's the point of this discussion really if not to just complain the sky is falling--again--a "new" way?? There's still plenty of trains I want to buy for my layout. I have one son who amazingly is still interested in the hobby--and there's trains he wants to have. The only steam he's ever seen is at Strasburg, but he wanted a big 4-8-4 steam engine and now has a nice BLI one on layaway. I showed him a bunch of pictures of different models that are actually available at a good price, and he picked out the Santa Fe 3751-Class 4-8-4. It was his choice--I would've just as easily taken an N&W J-Class. |
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Post by jlwii2000 on Jan 11, 2014 9:08:58 GMT -8
Holy cow Batman! Gimme a break. Has nobody here ever heard of "After-Christmas sales" ? Stores like modeltrainstuff.com routinely have blowout sales on anything that has been sitting around a little bit too long. Since I shop some of those websites all the freakin' time, I don't really see they are doing anything different from what they've always done. For every few models that actually make it to blowout sales, there are plenty of models that come in, are there for only a couple days, and then are gone and cannot be replaced. Just try finding some of the recent passenger car releases--some are just gone. Unless you have and are willing to share real data--as in store X's sales were down Y-% over last year and Z-% over the last several years (which would indicate an actual trend), nobody can actually prove a "problem" exists. Then any actual decline in store sales would need to be measured against any increase in online sales to see if they match. I think as Americans get lazier it's just easier for some to shop online, period. So what's the point of this discussion really if not to just complain the sky is falling--again--a "new" way?? I am not saying the sky is falling at all so calm down there sparky. I shop online and shop sales all the time as well and I have never seen MTH aces on sale for 50% off at any online retailer let alone two at the same time. They've been out for a few years now in different varieties. So I was just asking the question. They were actually on sale at modeltrainstuff.com before Christmas according to a friend of mine. |
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Post by WP 257 on Jan 11, 2014 9:13:53 GMT -8
James--
My response wasn't intended to be directed at you (though I guess it reads that way), and I like using a little sarcasm, but perhaps that doesn't come through very well in print. I'm not upset...just tired of reading from some of the same people (not James) that the sky is falling.
The HO crowd in general has been somewhat reluctant to accept MTH products, at least relative to the O-scale crowd.
I also have no idea what is going on behind the scenes--whether or not certain distributors need to clean their shelves prior to February tax time in some states or not.
It seems certain folks are always bemoaning the death of the hobby, and I'm just growing tired of reading about it--plus it's driving away good folks from these forums.
I know some folks have perceptions that MTH's prices are too high for what they are providing, or are too high relative to BLI, so sales of MTH product could reflect some of that. There's also good BLI stuff available for 40% off list at major dealers too--whether or not any of it was "factory refurbished" and is being sold as new by unscrupulous dealers (as has I think happened to me) is anyone's guess. Perhaps it's just an innocent coincidence that some dealers are now offering "brand new" BLI stuff at the exact same price as BLI's "factory refurbished" (not legally sold as new) models. I smell a rat, Batman.
If the price seems too good to be true, and isn't from a highly reputable online major dealer, then I avoid it. As it is, I just spent $60 more for the privilege of putting a BLI Santa Fe 4-8-4 on layaway from a trusted store rather than taking low online prices from some folks I didn't trust.
I took an online "deal" on an MTH passenger car recently, that was supposed to be "brand new", and I received a shelf worn box containing an imperfect car, which might have been a "blem" or else the dealer was just an idiot and broke stuff and sent it out that way...Either way, I'm never ordering from him again.
Also, my most recent Walthers passenger car arrived from a reputable online dealer with blemishes, too, so maybe I'm just ticked off that nobody is adequately inspecting the plated finish passenger cars at the importer before they go out.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2014 9:50:21 GMT -8
Unless you have and are willing to share real data--as in store X's sales were down Y-% over last year and Z-% over the last several years (which would indicate an actual trend), nobody can actually prove a "problem" exists. Then any actual decline in store sales would need to be measured against any increase in online sales to see if they match. Last year, the owner of the hobby shop I frequent and a few other of the store's better customers sat down and candidly talked about sales. Believe it or not other people not on this board are concerned about where the hobby of model railroading is headed. The owner stated the store has experienced negative gross sales over the last four years, though the store is still profitable. The store's inventory is completely bar coded with live inventory. The store also has an extensive web-site with online ordering, just like an M.B. Klein. Only he is more full service than Klein's in that he has extensive paint, decals, glues, scratch building parts, detail parts and other merchandise not found in bulk at Klein's. The store is broken into two parts, the retail section and the "back of the shop" section which does sound installs, decoder installs, lights, repairs, custom paint and building and layout construction. He has one full time employee who's sole purpose is sound/DCC and lighting installations. The owner does custom model work and he has two other part time employees for DCC installation and repairs. He said if it wasn't for the "back of the shop", he'd consider closing as the trend downward is alarming. He also said, that when a manufacturer like Bowser dumps a big run of locomotives right before the end of the year, he cuts his order. Why? Because the state taxes the store's inventory. He also cuts his orders to all manufacturers if they release things in late May to September. He's a good person and will hold special orders for customers. Until sold this is inventory and late December releases means there will be thousands of dollars worth of models sitting in "will call" on December 31. He was not real happy in August 2011 when Athearn released the DDA40X. It is an expensive model, yet he still stocked two of each number in standard DC and sound. If Athearn had released the DDA40X in October, the store would have been in for four or five per number in sound and standard DC. The owner has owned other successful businesses in the past and thus knows how to run a business. Too many hobby shops are run by people that have never run a business, let alone a successful business. So when someone who has done all the right things and has a clientele that is willing to spend money and you are still seeing an erosion in gross sales for consecutive years, but still profitable, I'd say there might be a little fire with the smoke. |
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Post by markfj on Jan 11, 2014 9:54:46 GMT -8
I have to believe these manufacturers, like most companies, have some kind of product/price forecasting model in place. Wouldn’t it make sense that this price discounting is anticipated once their products hit the market? I mean, these companies don’t live in a vacuum, they attend the big train shows just like we do. So, they must have some idea what’s out there and they certainly should know how the market prices fluctuated in previous releases. Maybe I’m out of touch with the reality of the model business here, but these companies have to be doing "some" strategic planning with their products, pricing, marketing, etc.
Thanks, Mark
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Post by Brakie on Jan 11, 2014 11:01:24 GMT -8
I have to believe these manufacturers, like most companies, have some kind of product/price forecasting model in place. Wouldn’t it make sense that this price discounting is anticipated once their products hit the market? I mean, these companies don’t live in a vacuum, they attend the big train shows just like we do. So, they must have some idea what’s out there and they certainly should know how the market prices fluctuated in previous releases. Maybe I’m out of touch with the reality of the model business here, but these companies have to be doing "some" strategic planning with their products, pricing, marketing, etc. Thanks, Mark I'm sure they do but,I fear it may be a small 4"x6" picture when they really need a 12"x12" picture.. Its not exactly "happy days are here again" nor is it "Farewell and adieu". I know this isn't a popular belief among forum members and that's ok but, from what I heard over the past few months I fully believe the price bubble for average modelers with hobby budgets has been reached.The prices has to stop somewhere. All any one has to do is attend a train show or a specialized modelers meet,visit various chat rooms or spend a day railfaning and listen to what is being said. |
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