What kind of weight is given for a prototype?

[railthunder]

The Southeast thread I started made me wonder if manufacturers put different weights on consumers based on their posting habits as far as product selection and production.

Up front I'm sure there are exceptions such as the president of the modeling company loves the Pennsy or the Milwaukee Road and there's no shortage of those prototypes etc. and equally they may hate other railroads through a bad life experience such as a bad trip on Amtrak or VIA or a freight merger that took their beloved railroad and made it a corporate behemoth.

So, on the internet on a forum like this where manufacturers are also present at times what weight do they give to modelers that post on here in terms of their plans and future projects?

There certainly is a huge amount of diversity on these boards. Some are avid researchers, market analyst speculators, collectors, specific railroad interests, prototype modelers, scratchbuilders, railroad time date modeling, armchair modelers, internet lurkers, and the list goes on and on.

If I'm a paint manufacturer considering a new color such as Illinois Central Orange what makes me want to produce that? In the scenario I've read threads and different posts. The Sunday photo post has had an IC model or two where the modeler had to mix paints to get that right orange look for the hopper car. On another thread a modeler wishes a manufacturer that makes the hopper car would do the IC version in orange paint so he/she doesn't have to. Yet another person doesn't like the IC as they took over the GM&O and he wishes the car be done in the GM&O. Then another post saying IC stuff would sell if the right orange paint were made, afterall everything was orange for a long time from their passenger trains to well into the freight era. Then another post speculating that it would be silly to make IC orange and cite their opinion on why it shouldn't be made and to make Santa Fe Red and Pennsy Tuscan Red instead as there are more modelers of those roads. The posts go on and on.

I'm the manufacturer what kind of weight do I give some of these responses? By the way I have no affiliation with any manufacturer.

My coffee break is done and now I'm back to laying more track!

[riogrande]

Of course only the manufacturers could respond to your question, and anything we would say here is mostly speculation. My guess is specific information is probably proprietary on how manufacturers decide what road names are being run.

My common sense answer is manufacturers probably consider what we, the modelers say on the internet via forums, but I'd guess the weight they put to it isn't very high. Why? Be cause there is often a very loud minority of people which may only co-incidentally co-incide with real numbers in terms of customer demand. Manufacturers aren't going to invest lots of money in guess work or a loud minority but rather they would rely as much as possible on real numbers, based on past sales and any other "hard" data they can gather, to minimize risk.

[atsfan]

Any importer should know what sells and what does not.
Some seem to be pushing the limit with niche short lines etc.
Atlas did that a lot and I see them at train shows still with no takers.

I doubt they listen to any forum foaming much. Maybe they would listen to someone who is helping them with pictures and other information they need to make it easy to produce the paint job.

[drolsen]

Jul 5, 2012 10:27:56 GMT -8 atsfan said:

I doubt they listen to any forum foaming much. Maybe they would listen to someone who is helping them with pictures and other information they need to make it easy to produce the paint job.

Although I know that many manufacturers monitor forums like this just to get a feel for what modelers are interested in or asking for, it's definitely been my experience that they are more willing to entertain requests for future products if you can provide them with the research material to get the project going. New paint schemes on existing models are the easiest - I've been able to convince manufacturers to do a couple new paint schemes in subsequent runs of a particular model by providing photos and explaining why I think the paint scheme is a viable one. In one case, a paint scheme that I thought was a good one to do didn't sell well, which was disappointing to both the manufacturer and me, but I think it was a case of it being an Eastern prototype and one which operated in a limited area. I thought it was going to be popular in the East at least, but the manufacturer was disappointed with the lack of orders. Others have done well, but in all cases, they were much more open to the idea of producing the model when I approached them with research material in hand.

I think in general, manufacturers pick roadnames that they think will sell well, but in this era of more prototype accuracy in models, I think they also will try to offer most of the roadnames that are correct for a particular model, but adjust the numbers of each that they produce based on which roadnames are more popular. Anyway, in the end, there are a lot of different reasons why they choose to produce what they do, and most of us won't be privy to the decisions unless we work with them on the project. I've been fortunate to have had that chance a couple times, and I've learned to make sure I do my homework in preparation for those projects.

Dave

[riogrande]

There seems to be tons of east road names, probably because the eastern US has been populated longer than the west. Having grown up out west, I see lots of eastern names which appear to a noob like me to be niche, but I am aware that there is often a rabid following for some eastern RR names, but to me there is no rhyme or reason to why some sell well and why some don't. It's a head scratcher to me for sure.

I suppose the only silver lining to some of these eastern RR names not selling is it can provide fodder for people who like to strip paint and "roll their own" diesels. Sometimes I will search Ebay for example on Atlas GP40-2's, which are a fairly recent HO model, and there are still quite a few out there, but the road names are part of that category I mentioned earlier - you guessed it, eastern road names! They are a dogs breakfast for sure.

As usual the road names I am interested in (D&RGW/SP/SSW) tend to be sold out and hard to find. It's a good news/bad news scenario - popular enough to be offered but so popular they tend to be hard to find after a short period. But that also means SP/D&RGW fans can't bottom feed as much because those diesels sell out pretty quick. Because of that, I am missing a road number of the last run of D&RGW tunnel motors, and still haven't found one yet!

[Deleted]

Jul 5, 2012 7:36:18 GMT -8 railthunder said:

The Southeast thread I started made me wonder if manufacturers put different weights on consumers based on their posting habits as far as product selection and production.

In one word NO

Jul 5, 2012 7:36:18 GMT -8 railthunder said:

Up front I'm sure there are exceptions such as the president of the modeling company loves the Pennsy or the Milwaukee Road and there's no shortage of those prototypes etc. and equally they may hate other railroads through a bad life experience such as a bad trip on Amtrak or VIA or a freight merger that took their beloved railroad and made it a corporate behemoth.

Quickest way in the hobby business to go OUT OF BUSINESS, is to let your personal preferences and interest effect your decisions. This hold true from the hobby shop up to manufacturer. You may not like Santa Fe, but if you can make tens of thousands of dollars in profit on a Santa Fe model.....you do the damn model....PERIOD.

Jul 5, 2012 7:36:18 GMT -8 railthunder said:

So, on the internet on a forum like this where manufacturers are also present at times what weight do they give to modelers that post on here in terms of their plans and future projects?

About the only thing a manufacturer cares about on these forums is bad press. Even then they take that with a giant container of salt. Unless the uproar is SO deafening, as in the case of the Athearn Genesis GP7/9. That dust up cost Athearn and its dealers sales. My dealer is still stuck with UP GP9's.

According to my dealer, who has frank discussions with many of the big manufacturers on a weekly to bi-weekly basis, they (manufacturers) don't listen much to a him either......And he's a high volume dealer! So why do we (forum foamites) think that they (manufacturers) care what we say?

Jul 5, 2012 7:36:18 GMT -8 railthunder said:

There certainly is a huge amount of diversity on these boards. Some are avid researchers, market analyst speculators, collectors, specific railroad interests, prototype modelers, scratchbuilders, railroad time date modeling, armchair modelers, internet lurkers, and the list goes on and on.

Manufacturers don't care what floats your boat as long as they sell out and recoup their investment as quickly as possible.

Jul 5, 2012 7:36:18 GMT -8 railthunder said:

If I'm a paint manufacturer considering a new color such as Illinois Central Orange what makes me want to produce that? In the scenario I've read threads and different posts. The Sunday photo post has had an IC model or two where the modeler had to mix paints to get that right orange look for the hopper car. On another thread a modeler wishes a manufacturer that makes the hopper car would do the IC version in orange paint so he/she doesn't have to. Yet another person doesn't like the IC as they took over the GM&O and he wishes the car be done in the GM&O. Then another post saying IC stuff would sell if the right orange paint were made, afterall everything was orange for a long time from their passenger trains to well into the freight era. Then another post speculating that it would be silly to make IC orange and cite their opinion on why it shouldn't be made and to make Santa Fe Red and Pennsy Tuscan Red instead as there are more modelers of those roads. The posts go on and on.

I'm the manufacturer what kind of weight do I give some of these responses? By the way I have no affiliation with any manufacturer.

A manufacturer will read such dribble about IC versus GM&O versus ICG and think nothing. Doesn't concern them one bit. Getting color and lettering CORRECT on one of their models is important to most manufacturers. Again, negative press in a number of forums is poison and that is something a manufacturer can't ignore easily.

I see many people banging away at the keyboard about wanting this model or that model and ALWAYS following up their fantasy list with "IT WILL SELL"......okay......to which Athearn, Atlas, Walthers, Intermountain and a host of others say....."It isn't YOUR $250,000 on the line if your pet model absolutely stinks up sales. It isn't YOUR job on the line if that model tanks. It isn't YOUR loss of precious factory time that could have been used producing a different model."

I have a question for all you banging away at the keyboard wanting a specific model.....Are you be willing to bet your home, savings, retirement savings and risk financial ruin in order to get that model YOU JUST HAVE TO HAVE AND "KNOW" IT WILL SELL?? If it sells you make some money.....if it tanks you lose everything.......So who's willing to make that bet???

Yup.............didn't think there would be any takers........

For the manufacturers, ANY model or paint scheme is a gut check. The manufacturers may talk between each other, they may talk to their dealers and more than likely they rely on their instincts. What we say means little to nothing.

[railthunder]

Jul 5, 2012 15:49:51 GMT -8 @australianterrier said:

Jul 5, 2012 7:36:18 GMT -8 railthunder said:

The Southeast thread I started made me wonder if manufacturers put different weights on consumers based on their posting habits as far as product selection and production.

In one word NO



Quickest way in the hobby business to go OUT OF BUSINESS, is to let your personal preferences and interest effect your decisions. This hold true from the hobby shop up to manufacturer. You may not like Santa Fe, but if you can make tens of thousands of dollars in profit on a Santa Fe model.....you do the damn model....PERIOD.



About the only thing a manufacturer cares about on these forums is bad press. Even then they take that with a giant container of salt. Unless the uproar is SO deafening, as in the case of the Athearn Genesis GP7/9. That dust up cost Athearn and its dealers sales. My dealer is still stuck with UP GP9's.

According to my dealer, who has frank discussions with many of the big manufacturers on a weekly to bi-weekly basis, they (manufacturers) don't listen much to a him either......And he's a high volume dealer! So why do we (forum foamites) think that they (manufacturers) care what we say?



Manufacturers don't care what floats your boat as long as they sell out and recoup their investment as quickly as possible.

Jul 5, 2012 7:36:18 GMT -8 railthunder said:

If I'm a paint manufacturer considering a new color such as Illinois Central Orange what makes me want to produce that? In the scenario I've read threads and different posts. The Sunday photo post has had an IC model or two where the modeler had to mix paints to get that right orange look for the hopper car. On another thread a modeler wishes a manufacturer that makes the hopper car would do the IC version in orange paint so he/she doesn't have to. Yet another person doesn't like the IC as they took over the GM&O and he wishes the car be done in the GM&O. Then another post saying IC stuff would sell if the right orange paint were made, afterall everything was orange for a long time from their passenger trains to well into the freight era. Then another post speculating that it would be silly to make IC orange and cite their opinion on why it shouldn't be made and to make Santa Fe Red and Pennsy Tuscan Red instead as there are more modelers of those roads. The posts go on and on.

I'm the manufacturer what kind of weight do I give some of these responses? By the way I have no affiliation with any manufacturer.

A manufacturer will read such dribble about IC versus GM&O versus ICG and think nothing. Doesn't concern them one bit. Getting color and lettering CORRECT on one of their models is important to most manufacturers. Again, negative press in a number of forums is poison and that is something a manufacturer can't ignore easily.

I see many people banging away at the keyboard about wanting this model or that model and ALWAYS following up their fantasy list with "IT WILL SELL"......okay......to which Athearn, Atlas, Walthers, Intermountain and a host of others say....."It isn't YOUR $250,000 on the line if your pet model absolutely stinks up sales. It isn't YOUR job on the line if that model tanks. It isn't YOUR loss of precious factory time that could have been used producing a different model."

I have a question for all you banging away at the keyboard wanting a specific model.....Are you be willing to bet your home, savings, retirement savings and risk financial ruin in order to get that model YOU JUST HAVE TO HAVE AND "KNOW" IT WILL SELL?? If it sells you make some money.....if it tanks you lose everything.......So who's willing to make that bet???

Yup.............didn't think there would be any takers........

For the manufacturers, ANY model or paint scheme is a gut check. The manufacturers may talk between each other, they may talk to their dealers and more than likely they rely on their instincts. What we say means little to nothing.

You did a great job of getting this thread exactly where I thought it might go. If manufacturers were perfect all hobby shops would have empty shelves and things would be consistently sold out. But, they aren't, things are still on the shelf and the manufacturers are still there as are the product development and design guys. Sure, times get tough, factory problems in China etc., in the end though its about risk taking.

I don't see any manufacturer methodology that would indicate that every company gets a 100% for choosing and producing a model that will sell every time. I think some of it is fear of future sales after a model is made. What???

Hypothetically, if I model Amtrak and only Amtrak and I have a huge railroad set in the 1970s I might buy 16 SDP40Fs. They are the only loco I need. A high quality model is produced and I'm done. No more locomotives for me. But hey, lets hold off on making those and do some Amfleet cars and F40PHs. He'll buy some of those maybe to hold him off. We'll do the SDP40F eventually but lets bait him with some other stuff that wasn't as popular. ;D

As far as accuracy of paint and lettering and following forums for negative press perhaps. I was surprised it took so long to get the GP7/9s fixed, but hey it worked! I truly felt sorry for the moderators on the Atlas Forum with some of the antics on that board and the "patrol" time to keep things sane and clean while they were trying to do their real job of research and development of future products for all of us.

Why afterall do we need 5 or 6 F units by different manufacturers? I can understand for the train set market as they are easier for little fingers (children) to put back on the track. Still if manufacturers talked to each other then they could strike a deal where one would do F units and another passenger cars etc. etc. that could give a lot more choices of roadnames perhaps. Makes no sense to compete on duplicate effort if it's high quality to me anyways, then again I'm grateful for roadname considerations offerred by one of the F unit makers vs. the other ones.

There certainly have been exceptions when companies made a model that only three railroads had and only 10 were built etc. It is a risk that is taken and if it works then great. If not then on the shelf it sits.

So in the end we'll just have to peck away on here and contact manufacturers and hope we can get what we want, but more importantly be happy with what we have.

Have a superb evening!

[drolsen]

Jul 5, 2012 15:49:51 GMT -8 @australianterrier said:

I have a question for all you banging away at the keyboard wanting a specific model.....Are you be willing to bet your home, savings, retirement savings and risk financial ruin in order to get that model YOU JUST HAVE TO HAVE AND "KNOW" IT WILL SELL?? If it sells you make some money.....if it tanks you lose everything.......So who's willing to make that bet???

Yup.............didn't think there would be any takers........

That's pretty much exactly what the guys from Spring Mills Depot are doing with their Canstock box car and B&O I-12 caboose models. They are modelers and have lots of friends who are modelers, and I think they have both been successful in their "real" jobs, so they decided to take a shot at producing models that they and their fellow B&O/Chessie friends want to see in HO scale. I think they'll be happy if they break even in the process of producing the models they want and selling them to like-minded modelers, and they'll be really excited if the business takes off. I think it's pretty great, what they're doing, and I hope they are successful. It's definitely a big risk, but they're putting a lot of time and research into getting things right and producing quality models, so I think anything they are able to produce will do well.

Dave

[Christian]

Jul 5, 2012 20:08:32 GMT -8 railthunder said:

Still if manufacturers talked to each other then they could strike a deal where one would do F units and another passenger cars etc. etc. that could give a lot more choices of roadnames perhaps.

As well as jail time. Several crimes in that sort of collusion. Sure, Model trains are small, small business, but the same trade laws apply as apply to GM and Ford.

[Deleted]

Jul 6, 2012 3:20:23 GMT -8 Christian said:

Jul 5, 2012 20:08:32 GMT -8 railthunder said:

Still if manufacturers talked to each other then they could strike a deal where one would do F units and another passenger cars etc. etc. that could give a lot more choices of roadnames perhaps.

As well as jail time. Several crimes in that sort of collusion. Sure, Model trains are small, small business, but the same trade laws apply as apply to GM and Ford.

Christian is right.

My guess is if the manufacturers ever do talk to each other, about the only subject that wouldn't be considered collusion is the China production mess and how to protect the investments. Even then I don't see the head of Atlas and Athearn sitting down over cocktails and talking shop. It would more than likely be "how's the family and how was vacation and this hotel has lousy pillows" conversations.

[Paul Cutler III]

I know for a fact that sometimes internet postings can effect manufacturers production:

1). Atlas changed the numbers on their last run of NH Green & Orange RS-1's because someone on the NHRHTA NH Forum complained that those particular numbers never got that particular paint scheme. Correct numbers were supplied to Atlas, and the models changed.

2). Rapido attempted to bring out an updated and corrected CPA-24-5 due to the online complaining about the first run from TLT (and the fact that LIRR and NH sold well with their passenger cars). Unfortunately, the demand wasn't high enough to overcome the problem when Walthers stopped supplying the rear truck needed.

3). The LLP2K GP38 fan fiasco...enough said.

There are plenty of other examples out there, but the above three give an good overall look at what can happen simply due to online postings.

So yes, some weight is given to internet postings. It depends on circumstances. Some voices are known to manufacturers and are respected, others are known cranks and they are ignored. Sometimes the fix is easy, other times it's economically impossible.

BTW, talking face to face with the factory reps at a show like the NMRA National Show, or Springfield, etc., can have an effect. Microscale released a trim film of "MBTA Purple" because it was suggested that it would help the sales of their MBTA set. Talking to Williams (O-scale) this year helped them choose the correct yellow paint for NH tender lettering over their incorrect silver lettering they had on their demo model. Suggesting to Bowser that their NH U25B's should have yellow ladders by showing them color photos at the show helped get that corrected.

Smart manufacturers will at least listen to their customers and take action if & when they can.

riogrande,
There are plenty of Western prototypes out there, like the PRR, C&O, etc. Hey, to a New Haven fan, that's the truth!

Anyways, Athearn makes a ton of Western models while Atlas makes mostly Eastern models. They balance themselves quite well in that regard. As to why some Eastern roads get more action than some Western ones... Well, New England alone has almost 3 times the population of Colorado. And if you add New England to the Mid-Atlantic states, it's almost twice the population of California. The point is that there's a heckuva lot of people who live in the Northeast, and that equals potential money for model manufacturers as people generally like to model near-by locations (not all, but a high percentage). I don't think the length of time an area's been settled has much to do with it. If it did, there'd be a lot more pre-Transcon modeling going on.

FWIW, when I was in Chicago a couple years ago, I couldn't find anything in New Haven at all at multiple hobby shops and even at a train show I was at. I think I saw one set of BAR or B&M F-units, but that was it. I'm glad I don't live out there and try to model New England prototypes because they look like they are hard to find...at least in Chicago.

Christian,
Collusion? As to what models to make? I don't think that would apply. They wouldn't be fixing prices, but adjusting production so as not to overlap. Look at old Athearn and old MDC. Do you think it's only a coincidence that their product lines never really overlapped that much?

I'm not saying they talk production numbers...that's top secret info. But if one manufacturer told another, "Look, we're making model X, so you might want to avoid making model X, too," I don't think that's illegal.

[Brakie]

I'm sure the manufacturers knows each other on a first name bases and may even lunch or supper together during a show or the National show...

Judging by the duplicate cars,locomotives and road names I kinda doubt if there is any production secretes being exchanged..

[nw611]

Look at BLMA and ExactRail on the TrinCool Reefer. Ciao. Raffaele

[riogrande]

Jul 6, 2012 7:12:36 GMT -8 Paul Cutler III said:

riogrande,
There are plenty of Western prototypes out there, like the PRR, C&O, etc. Hey, to a New Haven fan, that's the truth!

You mean to someone standing on the eastern shores, PRR and C&O seems "west" to you? But as a geologist I must point out landmasswise, they are east of the Mississippi, and I always have heard that St. Louis is the gateway to the west. I rest my case!

Anyways, Athearn makes a ton of Western models while Atlas makes mostly Eastern models. They balance themselves quite well in that regard. As to why some Eastern roads get more action than some Western ones... Well, New England alone has almost 3 times the population of Colorado. And if you add New England to the Mid-Atlantic states, it's almost twice the population of California. The point is that there's a heckuva lot of people who live in the Northeast, and that equals potential money for model manufacturers as people generally like to model near-by locations (not all, but a high percentage). I don't think the length of time an area's been settled has much to do with it. If it did, there'd be a lot more pre-Transcon modeling going on.

Indeed there is alot produced for western RR's and I too have noticed how Atlas tends toward eastern vs Athearn having a western bias.

My guess is there are a couple of things regarding the apparent higher sales of West prototypes vs east. Just speculation but since the miryad of eastern RR's have been fallen flags longer, and that much larger population on the east well, remember alot more of them are aging out vs the west where many of the familiar RR's were independant much more recently. Add to that it seems the scenery is a big draw with the wide open desert expanses, the mountain terrain, pine tree's, canyons, it's hard to beat. One of my books about the D&RGW is appropriately entitled: Rio Grande - Scenic Line of the World. There are are quite a few fans in other countries like Austrailia and the UK, Sweden because the Rockies are kind of like the Swiss Alps in their own way.

I know the mid-west is just cornfields so they may get the "boring" scenery award, but after having spend many years both in the west and east, I can say in an unbiased way, that the east scenery doesn't hold a candel to the west. The most I've seen the east to have scenically is fall colors, but I'd still take the western vista's having spent about 1/3rd of my life out there vs 2/3rd's in the east and midwest. Just some thoughts.

[railthunder]

Jul 6, 2012 3:20:23 GMT -8 Christian said:

Jul 5, 2012 20:08:32 GMT -8 railthunder said:

Still if manufacturers talked to each other then they could strike a deal where one would do F units and another passenger cars etc. etc. that could give a lot more choices of roadnames perhaps.

As well as jail time. Several crimes in that sort of collusion. Sure, Model trains are small, small business, but the same trade laws apply as apply to GM and Ford.

Walthers and Athearn worked out a deal with their first production of the Super Chief where the F units would be done by Athearn and the cars by Walthers. This worked fine until the Horizon deal and wasn't repeated.

It's not collusion at all if a BLI E unit is made that will go with Walthers cars. My point was they could save each other costs i.e. one company wouldn't have to make passenger cars to go with it's engines in one run and vice versa in another one.