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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 9:43:40 GMT -8
I'm going to keep my response here respectful. For one thing, in the model trains industry, one does actually see letters similar to Atlas's letter every once in awhile. There is nothing new under the sun. I thought it was well written and basically just an end of year thank you--next year will be better letter...typical of model train pr. It seems you may not be fully aware of the history of model train manufacturing. Atlas has most certainly ridden through all kinds of things in the past 70 years or more that they've been in the hobby, and has in fact outlasted many dozens of other former model train manufacturers (Bowser alone has purchased or otherwise acquired something like 20 former train manufacturing companies at last count). Atlas is a class act, and they will be just fine. Even in their current state, they are far from also-ran status. They are still bigger than several others. All glory is fleeting Look at Motorola Blackberry Pontiac Pan Am PRR The list is long Atlas is assured nothing based on things done 50 years ago. Pan Am is alive and well, the largest regional railroad in New England. Rotterdam Jct (Schenectady) NY to Boston to Mattawamkeag, (northern Maine) with trackage/haulage rights to White River Jct VT, New Haven CT, and Saint John NB. A major paper, chemical, and crude oil hauler: www.panamrailways.com
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 10:20:59 GMT -8
We are buying fewer products, and fewer people are buying at all. You have yet to provide any empirical evidence of this. All you do is infer that "higher" prices = lower sales = death of the hobby. Have you considered that prices are going up because sales are good? Examples of companies increasing prices when demand is up are found everywhere... why would a company decrease prices in the face of increasing demand? You are puting the cart before the horse.
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Post by WP 257 on Dec 18, 2014 10:37:34 GMT -8
Other manufacturers are adopting Intermountain's approach and making the plastic parts here so they have total control over the parts quality--then the parts are shipped to China for assembly and painting. However, that still isn't too many jobs here compared to what they once had, even in trains. Correct me if I am wrong, but sin't Bowser adopting this exact model right now ? Yes, but I'm pretty sure they are not the only one.
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Post by bnsftcdiv on Dec 18, 2014 10:46:21 GMT -8
It was asked "are we changing" since the hobby is changing, above. The answer is, yes. We are buying fewer products, and fewer people are buying at all. In the short run is if fine if the price doubles, sales are halved, and the profit stays the same. That is not a sustainable business model. One guy sayig he is buying more is not going to outdo all those who are not. Ok. Riddle me this: If manufacturers are continuously raising prices AND producing less units like you claim, then where are they getting the monies to do more & more esoteric items like a C-415, or A Baldwin Centipede, etc ? By your pretzel logic, there is no way a manufacturer could make these kinds of models which appeal to a very narrow market. Yet, time-after-time, these models are sold out before they hit the streets & they are forced to make multiple runs of each of these unique models. They would only be making models that appeal to the largest market share if what you claim is true. Otherwise, they would have inventory sitting on shelves gathering dust. Buying more? Not really, just buying more specific models by narrowing modeled time frame and looking at better detailed stuff to match my prototype. I don't have to cut and paste to get a reasonable facsimile of a ES44C4 because Intermountain has gotten close enough for me. Citirail ES44's coming as well-Trinity 3251 sand hoppers all things I would have had to make do with available models or CUT/DETAIL/PAINT. I have a couple of cars on my wish to be produced list, but a ton of those have been done in the past 3 years. Bakken Oil tanks and newer Trinity Pressure Differential cars would make me smile and release even more of those dollars that I'm the only one allegedly spending... I'm also upgrading cars and engines to meet nicer prototype models on the market. Selling Athearn Covered hoppers to get Intermountain and Tangents that match prototypes, Blue box engines to Genesis and more detail, so that I can use my time to Cannonize something else I can't get yet. SD70ace's, GEVO's, PD 3000 hoppers and Kaslo resin shells(oops, guess I'm modeling) helped that and the list goes on. Haven't had to buy really expensive brass to get a given engine of car. I also get to redistribute my excess and the market gets the kits and some items at shows at attractive prices. And, rest assured I'm sure all of us have more than we need as well. Never really was about need was it? Most of the people I've heard complaining about prices seem to have a hobby shop in storage or have what they "need". Me too. They also are those that don't seem to buy as much 'cause they were there when it was cheap and got it. They may want it the new but remember the old days price. I do too. But when I asked about the hobby changin , did we ever think 5 years ago we'd see an FL-9? Not that I need one, but I'm glad somebody got them. C-415's the same. M-630's? Those I want but just 1. We asked for better detail-we got it, We asked for diverse and unusual prototypes, more road names and numbers, we got it. We wan sound, we got it. We want a perfect SD40-2 we got…..well not yet. But we also got higher prices that align with our raised desires. We complain about not finding the holy grail of our quest 6 months after its is released? Limited production that lets inventory get managed without risk to the manufacturer/distributor, but a model that may not be friendly to local retailers pricing and having it in stock. Can you see the Amazon and Walmart model here? That is how the hobby is changing…not cheap train sets, or more kids in the hobby. Never was. Different, but we are different than we were in 1970 when I bought my IC SW-1500 as a kid and Dad built the train table after Christmas, then got bored with it. Kids made it theirs until it didn't work or they got bored and then Mom used it as a sorting table for laundry or it got back to the ping-pong table. Different than block control vs DCC. Different than 2004 when I picked up operations. Different than when we could only get weathering info from a book from Kalmbach. Different than a year ago, when 3d printing became an new option we don't even have a handle on yet, but shows great promise….and the beat goes on I can be as much a curmudgeon as anyone…but I'm enjoying this era of the hobby for what it is. I work to grow it where I can, to the folks who want to get involved deeper. I don't derive any living in this hobby, I have worked in a hobby shop, and help run a very large train show with the manufacturers involved. I get to see inside the beast, sometimes more than I want to. My advice-Volunteer, give clinics, open up your railroad. Share it for what you know. Learn what you don't know and want to. You grow and share, the hobby grows. Sorry for the rant, and the glass half full perspective but I'm optimistic that the hobby will be around in 2025….just different…and changed. Dave Burman
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Post by atsfan on Dec 18, 2014 11:05:42 GMT -8
We are buying fewer products, and fewer people are buying at all. You have yet to provide any empirical evidence of this. All you do is infer that "higher" prices = lower sales = death of the hobby. Have you considered that prices are going up because sales are good? Examples of companies increasing prices when demand is up are found everywhere... why would a company decrease prices in the face of increasing demand? You are puting the cart before the horse. Do you have "empherical evidence" of any kind that model train demand is up, so companies have the price elasticity as a result to raise prices? Any at all? I have not said "death of the hobby" so that statement above is nonsense. Please produce facts that higher prices have not lowered sales of model trains. If you can, you should get a nobel prize for economics. And simply saying a run has "sold out" does not mean sales stayed the same, or were higher. It means the run was smaller, unless you have evidence that Athearn doubled the price of it Coalporters and sales stayed the same.
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Post by atsfan on Dec 18, 2014 11:07:41 GMT -8
All glory is fleeting Look at Motorola Blackberry Pontiac Pan Am PRR The list is long Atlas is assured nothing based on things done 50 years ago. Pan Am is alive and well, the largest regional railroad in New England. Rotterdam Jct (Schenectady) NY to Boston to Mattawamkeag, (northern Maine) with trackage/haulage rights to White River Jct VT, New Haven CT, and Saint John NB. A major paper, chemical, and crude oil hauler: www.panamrailways.comPan Am airlines, the largest airline in the world for decades is alive and well? The launch airline of the 707 and 747 is still alive and well? Or, did someone buy a trademark and repaint Guilford with it???
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Post by atsfan on Dec 18, 2014 11:10:21 GMT -8
It was asked "are we changing" since the hobby is changing, above. The answer is, yes. We are buying fewer products, and fewer people are buying at all. In the short run is if fine if the price doubles, sales are halved, and the profit stays the same. That is not a sustainable business model. One guy sayig he is buying more is not going to outdo all those who are not. Ok. Riddle me this: If manufacturers are continuously raising prices AND producing less units like you claim, then where are they getting the monies to do more & more esoteric items like a C-415, or A Baldwin Centipede, etc ? By your pretzel logic, there is no way a manufacturer could make these kinds of models which appeal to a very narrow market. Yet, time-after-time, these models are sold out before they hit the streets & they are forced to make multiple runs of each of these unique models. They would only be making models that appeal to the largest market share if what you claim is true. Otherwise, they would have inventory sitting on shelves gathering dust. By your pretzel logic, if 20 units are made and they sold out, sales are still the same as when the run had 2000 units. Riddle me this, if Overland makes 50 $1400 GEVO's and sells them all, are brass sales over the last 10 or 20 years higher, or lower?
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 18, 2014 11:12:36 GMT -8
Correct me if I am wrong, but sin't Bowser adopting this exact model right now ? Yes, but I'm pretty sure they are not the only one. Let's see.....Just the major players Intermountain (includes Fox Valley, Red Caboose, & a few others) - Yes Bowser - Yes BLI - No Athearn - No Atlas - No Kadee - No (all done in USA) Rapido - No Truelline Trains - No. Tangent - No Bluford Shops - No. Bachman - No Lionel - No MTH - No BLMA - No
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Post by atsfan on Dec 18, 2014 11:12:49 GMT -8
Ok. Riddle me this: If manufacturers are continuously raising prices AND producing less units like you claim, then where are they getting the monies to do more & more esoteric items like a C-415, or A Baldwin Centipede, etc ? By your pretzel logic, there is no way a manufacturer could make these kinds of models which appeal to a very narrow market. Yet, time-after-time, these models are sold out before they hit the streets & they are forced to make multiple runs of each of these unique models. They would only be making models that appeal to the largest market share if what you claim is true. Otherwise, they would have inventory sitting on shelves gathering dust. Buying more? Not really, just buying more specific models by narrowing modeled time frame and looking at better detailed stuff to match my prototype. I don't have to cut and paste to get a reasonable facsimile of a ES44C4 because Intermountain has gotten close enough for me. Citirail ES44's coming as well-Trinity 3251 sand hoppers all things I would have had to make do with available models or CUT/DETAIL/PAINT. I have a couple of cars on my wish to be produced list, but a ton of those have been done in the past 3 years. Bakken Oil tanks and newer Trinity Pressure Differential cars would make me smile and release even more of those dollars that I'm the only one allegedly spending... I'm also upgrading cars and engines to meet nicer prototype models on the market. Selling Athearn Covered hoppers to get Intermountain and Tangents that match prototypes, Blue box engines to Genesis and more detail, so that I can use my time to Cannonize something else I can't get yet. SD70ace's, GEVO's, PD 3000 hoppers and Kaslo resin shells(oops, guess I'm modeling) helped that and the list goes on. Haven't had to buy really expensive brass to get a given engine of car. I also get to redistribute my excess and the market gets the kits and some items at shows at attractive prices. And, rest assured I'm sure all of us have more than we need as well. Never really was about need was it? Most of the people I've heard complaining about prices seem to have a hobby shop in storage or have what they "need". Me too. They also are those that don't seem to buy as much 'cause they were there when it was cheap and got it. They may want it the new but remember the old days price. I do too. But when I asked about the hobby changin , did we ever think 5 years ago we'd see an FL-9? Not that I need one, but I'm glad somebody got them. C-415's the same. M-630's? Those I want but just 1. We asked for better detail-we got it, We asked for diverse and unusual prototypes, more road names and numbers, we got it. We wan sound, we got it. We want a perfect SD40-2 we got…..well not yet. But we also got higher prices that align with our raised desires. We complain about not finding the holy grail of our quest 6 months after its is released? Limited production that lets inventory get managed without risk to the manufacturer/distributor, but a model that may not be friendly to local retailers pricing and having it in stock. Can you see the Amazon and Walmart model here? That is how the hobby is changing…not cheap train sets, or more kids in the hobby. Never was. Different, but we are different than we were in 1970 when I bought my IC SW-1500 as a kid and Dad built the train table after Christmas, then got bored with it. Kids made it theirs until it didn't work or they got bored and then Mom used it as a sorting table for laundry or it got back to the ping-pong table. Different than block control vs DCC. Different than 2004 when I picked up operations. Different than when we could only get weathering info from a book from Kalmbach. Different than a year ago, when 3d printing became an new option we don't even have a handle on yet, but shows great promise….and the beat goes on I can be as much a curmudgeon as anyone…but I'm enjoying this era of the hobby for what it is. I work to grow it where I can, to the folks who want to get involved deeper. I don't derive any living in this hobby, I have worked in a hobby shop, and help run a very large train show with the manufacturers involved. I get to see inside the beast, sometimes more than I want to. My advice-Volunteer, give clinics, open up your railroad. Share it for what you know. Learn what you don't know and want to. You grow and share, the hobby grows. Sorry for the rant, and the glass half full perspective but I'm optimistic that the hobby will be around in 2025….just different…and changed. Dave Burman I have not read here that the hobby won't be around in 2025. Will it be different and changed, yes. My belief is it will be smaller in terms of participants. Due to a variety of reasons. Not "dead".
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Post by atsfan on Dec 18, 2014 11:19:39 GMT -8
Do you have "empherical evidence" of any kind that model train demand is up, so companies have the price elasticity as a result to raise prices? Any at all? I have not said "death of the hobby" so that statement above is nonsense. Please produce facts that higher prices have not lowered sales of model trains. If you can, you should get a nobel prize for economics. And simply saying a run has "sold out" does not mean sales stayed the same, or were higher. It means the run was smaller, unless you have evidence that Athearn doubled the price of it Coalporters and sales stayed the same. Hey Sherman ? Oh wait...ATSFAN. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. You are the one making the claim. It is up to you to provide the proof; not for us to disprove *you*. Now, with this said......put-up or shut-up. You continue to name call and post harsh and rude comments.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 11:19:47 GMT -8
Pan Am is alive and well, the largest regional railroad in New England. Rotterdam Jct (Schenectady) NY to Boston to Mattawamkeag, (northern Maine) with trackage/haulage rights to White River Jct VT, New Haven CT, and Saint John NB. A major paper, chemical, and crude oil hauler: www.panamrailways.comPan Am airlines, the largest airline in the world for decades is alive and well? The launch airline of the 707 and 747 is still alive and well? Or, did someone buy a trademark and repaint Guilford with it??? Why would I be refering to the airline? Who mentioned airline 'till now? You post "Pan Am" right above "PRR" and you don't know it's a large, currently operating railroad? This is a model RR and RR forum... but you were refering to an airline?? Click on their website or "Google" it.
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 18, 2014 11:20:29 GMT -8
By your pretzel logic, if 20 units are made and they sold out, sales are still the same as when the run had 2000 units. Riddle me this, if Overland makes 50 $1400 GEVO's and sells them all, are brass sales over the last 10 or 20 years higher, or lower? Correlation does not equal Causation. Once again, rather than explain yourself or provide any proof of your claims, you sidestep the argument. And No, I am not letting you go. I tire of your unsubstantiated claims so it is now time to offer something to prove your point instead of poorly trying to flip the question. Provide your proof or shut-up.
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Post by sp8299 on Dec 18, 2014 11:22:14 GMT -8
By your pretzel logic, if 20 units are made and they sold out, sales are still the same as when the run had 2000 units. Riddle me this, if Overland makes 50 $1400 GEVO's and sells them all, are brass sales over the last 10 or 20 years higher, or lower?
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Post by John Sheridan on Dec 18, 2014 11:22:23 GMT -8
Hey Sherman ? Oh wait...ATSFAN. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. You are the one making the claim. It is up to you to provide the proof; not for us to disprove *you*. Now, with this said......put-up or shut-up. You continue to name call and post harsh and rude comments. Is that your excuse now ? Oh I see. Yes, we now all are well aware of the one simple fact: You are full of it. Thanks for helping me prove at least one thing you always claim.
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Dec 18, 2014 11:39:04 GMT -8
Pontiac? ? Fleeting glory or whatever term was used??? For nearly the last 45 years or more cars have been built on platforms. In the 1970's you had the Chevrolet Nova Buick Appolo Pontiac Ventura Oldsmobile Omega. All based on the X-body flatform. Except for small differences they were the same cars. You could take a door from an Apollo and put on Ventura and so forth. Then there was the Chevrolet Cavalier Pontiac Sunbird Cadillac Cimarron Oldsmobile Firenza Buick Skyhawk All the same platform. The Cadillac had plushy leather seats, the Cavalier had cloth. Same engine, transmission, brakes and other mechanical parts. So the important part which is under the hood was identical. When GM shut down the NAME PLATES of Oldsmobile and Pontiac, it wasn't like you couldn't get the same cars from Chevrolet or Buick. This isn't like it was in 1962 where each division manufactured its own engines and other parts. There is still interchangeability between Olds, Chevy, Pontiac, Buick and Cadillac back then. Same holds true for Chrysler knocking off Plymouth. A NAME PLATE offering duplicate cars and vans. The only difference was the name and model name. Maybe the Chrysler Town & Country could have some fancy option that Plymouth or Dodge didn't offer. But under the hood everything was the same. GM and Chrysler saved a few parts and badging. But it didn't really mean anything to the automotive world. The only people crying in their beer were fans of the brand.
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Post by Paul Cutler III on Dec 18, 2014 11:52:52 GMT -8
Sheriff Sheridan rides again!
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Post by The Ferro Kid on Dec 18, 2014 12:19:41 GMT -8
It has been said that there are two things one never wants to watch being made: sausage and legislation. To which, it would appear, we now must add "model trains."
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Post by Donnell Wells on Dec 18, 2014 13:39:16 GMT -8
I have not read here that the hobby won't be around in 2025. Will it be different and changed, yes. My belief is it will be smaller in terms of participants. Due to a variety of reasons. Not "dead". You can believe what you will, but the numbers say different...
Donnell
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Post by oldmuley on Dec 18, 2014 15:34:10 GMT -8
Really guys?
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Post by atsfan on Dec 18, 2014 16:21:52 GMT -8
I have not read here that the hobby won't be around in 2025. Will it be different and changed, yes. My belief is it will be smaller in terms of participants. Due to a variety of reasons. Not "dead". You can believe what you will, but the numbers say different...
DonnellWhich numbers? I am not aware of numbers that show the number of model railroaders is increasing.
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Post by Donnell Wells on Dec 18, 2014 16:25:26 GMT -8
Start with the HMA (Hobby Manufacturer Association)...
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Post by lvrr325 on Dec 18, 2014 16:45:29 GMT -8
For those in the hobby in 25 years it will be great, you'll be able to buy estates for pennies on the dollar, although the market of new items will be tiny.
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Dec 18, 2014 16:46:10 GMT -8
Start with the HMA (Hobby Manufacturer Association)... Donnell, Not to throw a grenade into this rousing debate....... But....... Why cloud the: "hobby is dead" "the hobby shop is dying" "pre-orders" "quality control" "DC v. DCC" "Sound v. stealth" "prices" "nobody is spending money, because I'm not spending money" "PRR v. NYC" "Steam v. diesel" "ALCo v. EMD" Blah, blah, blah, blah with facts
Isn't this a place where you shoot from the hip with whatever pops into YOUR head, to justify YOUR OPINION? We don't deal with sticky details like FACTS when fiction is so much better at starting an argument.
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Post by kentuckysouthernrwy on Dec 18, 2014 16:54:23 GMT -8
Start with the HMA (Hobby Manufacturer Association)... Donnell, Not to throw a grenade into this rousing debate....... But....... Works for the media these days.
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Dec 18, 2014 16:57:37 GMT -8
Donnell, Not to throw a grenade into this rousing debate....... But....... Isn't this a place where you shoot from the hip with whatever pops into YOUR head, to justify YOUR OPINION? We don't deal with sticky details like FACTS when fiction is so much better at starting an argument. Works for the media these days. That is why they are in the entertainment business.
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Post by mlehman on Dec 18, 2014 17:45:27 GMT -8
Ummmm, I am not an economist, but I do know one...
Look, it's never a straight tradeoff between price and sales. Features, option, new paint, etc also enter into the equation. These are also all moving targets, depending on the factory, transportation costs, etc. A 1 for 1 tradeoff between volume and cost rarely occurs in the market -- and wouldn't mean much anyway if it did.
What counts is the per unit profit. If total profit goes up despite falling sales, then it's all still good so long as the vendor doesn't see more profit building something else.
I believe Chairman M hit it on the head. If new runs of old models are being produced PLUS new products being brought to market, it's a pretty good indication the manufacturing segment of the hobby is doing just fine, regardless of doom-and-gloom about number. Mercedes sell far fewer cars than GM, but I'll bet they're a healthier, more profitable company. Complaining about the high price of a Mercedes being the death of motoring would seem ridiculous.
You're left to draw your own conclusions about MRR mfgs doing essentially the same thing -- move upmarket and add features. So long as the profit is there, raw numbers in the hobby is far less relevant than whether or not the mfgs are making a profit serving them.
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Post by curtmc on Dec 18, 2014 18:01:20 GMT -8
The Hobby Manufacturers Association is a trade group who's purpose is to hype the hobbies, and on top of being a group I would not trust with the numbers their definitions are so vague to include many things that have not been traditionally considered model railroading... When a manufacturers rep (from one of the top manufacturers) in a personal email upon his retirement describes the model railroading market as rapidly declining I am more apt to believe that than any biased trade organization.
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garr
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Post by garr on Dec 18, 2014 19:15:33 GMT -8
Pontiac? ? ... When GM shut down the NAME PLATES of Oldsmobile and Pontiac, it wasn't like you couldn't get the same cars from Chevrolet or Buick. This isn't like it was in 1962 where each division manufactured its own engines and other parts. There is still interchangeability between Olds, Chevy, Pontiac, Buick and Cadillac back then. ... Hopefully a true car guy will chime in, but I believe some of the divisions were still producing their own engines up to 1978 with a few going into 1979. I say this because I bought a very slightly used 1979 Pontiac Trans Am when I was in high school in 1979. It had an Oldsmobile 403 in it, a nice engine in a sweet car but I was always a little envious of the few '79 Trans Ams I encountered with the T/A 455 on their hood scoops as these cars had the Pontiac 455 engine in them. Even today I wish Pontiac was still around as it would be nice to see what a reincarnated Trans Am would look like in comparison to the modern Camaro. I know there are kits to do your own custom conversion, but still not the same. But I digress. Getting back to model railroading. I read this letter as Atlas' pronouncement that "their death has been prematurely discussed". Sounds like they are up from the mat and ready to fight for another 50 years, which is good for all of us. As others have stated everything has its day in the sun. I believe that all the technology worship we have today will too loose its luster. Still relevant, but just not all encompassing. Jay
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Post by NS4122 on Dec 18, 2014 19:20:08 GMT -8
Wow, I'm really convinced now that the hobby is declining based on an unnamed mfg. rep sending someone a personal email. Now that's some real indisputable evidence. Seriously??
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Post by sd80mac on Dec 18, 2014 19:46:25 GMT -8
Nice, so the fact that Bachmann/Kader dumped a whole host of manufacturers ie cut them off from all future production and conveniently "lost" some of those manufacturers' tooling at the same time is all the manufacturers' fault entirely? Do you work for Atlas? It sure isn't my fault. Atlas decided to outsource to China. So yes, it their fault entirely. Hopefully someday Atlas will make a new car or engine I am interested in. But until then, I am reasonably sure the sun will come up tomorrow, most likely in the eastern sky. Who peed in your Cheerios? Geeze.
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