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Post by marknycfan on Dec 4, 2014 15:50:35 GMT -8
[/quote]Does it really matter? No. This is a hobby. Not food. Or heat. Or medicine. Or housing. Or a car. Or gasoline to go visit grand mom . Or a child. Nobody is asking for more details in 2014. This is discretionary income. Who cares why train prices will go up? People just won't BUY them. I don't go into a train store and see Athearn hoppers that have doubled in price (same car no more details) and gladly pay for them because I have no idea what the direct costs are. I don't care. I just shake my head and move on. [/quote] Now this is something I agree with you about!
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Dec 4, 2014 16:31:38 GMT -8
Model trains seem solid with new product flooding the market. Yet, if there were more substantial prices increases like say 10% would the industry still be solid?
Right now you seem to have about four classes of hobbyists.
1. Can't afford the new stuff
2. Can somewhat afford the new stuff but must use discretion in purchases
3. Can afford the new merchandise but is put off by the price and does price shop.
4. Just buys and isn't effected by the price.
Currently it would seem that there are more number four hobbyists than 3, 2 and 1. But if prices do increase which it would seem to indicate they will in the future. How many number 4's will become number 3's, 3's becoming 2's and 2's becoming 1's?
Since the Great Recession of 2008 some things have come down in price, while others have not. Housing the most expensive everyday cost in life has not regained the momentum of pre-2008. Other things like food is rising just about daily. A month ago, jumbo sized eggs were $1.45 a dozen. Large eggs were on sale for $0.99 per dozen. Today at the same food store, the jumbos were $2.59 a dozen and the large eggs were $2.75 a dozen! I bought jumbos as they were cheaper! Large eggs in the time frame of a month went up nearly $3 a dozen or $0.25 an egg.
Unlike toy trains, most people and families need eggs. Meat is another item that just keeps rising and rising. So to feed the family the discretionary income takes a hit. Now, maybe this is offset by the low gasoline prices. A month or so ago, unleaded regular was around $3.50 a gallon. Today, the BP station in town was at $2.72 a gallon. A decrease of over $0.75 a gallon. To fill a twenty gallon tank you save $15! Wow, that helps pay for increase in groceries, so maybe the discretionary income doesn't take a hit.
Another factor is many people have learned to live with less following 2008. The credit card companies continue to hammer away in the advertising department, but many families have cut "play money" and instead save it, because no one wants to be on the loosing end of 2008 again.
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Post by atsfan on Dec 4, 2014 17:08:47 GMT -8
Model trains seem solid with new product flooding the market. Yet, if there were more substantial prices increases like say 10% would the industry still be solid? Right now you seem to have about four classes of hobbyists. 1. Can't afford the new stuff 2. Can somewhat afford the new stuff but must use discretion in purchases 3. Can afford the new merchandise but is put off by the price and does price shop. 4. Just buys and isn't effected by the price. Currently it would seem that there are more number four hobbyists than 3, 2 and 1. But if prices do increase which it would seem to indicate they will in the future. How many number 4's will become number 3's, 3's becoming 2's and 2's becoming 1's? Since the Great Recession of 2008 some things have come down in price, while others have not. Housing the most expensive everyday cost in life has not regained the momentum of pre-2008. Other things like food is rising just about daily. A month ago, jumbo sized eggs were $1.45 a dozen. Large eggs were on sale for $0.99 per dozen. Today at the same food store, the jumbos were $2.59 a dozen and the large eggs were $2.75 a dozen! I bought jumbos as they were cheaper! Large eggs in the time frame of a month went up nearly $3 a dozen or $0.25 an egg. Unlike toy trains, most people and families need eggs. Meat is another item that just keeps rising and rising. So to feed the family the discretionary income takes a hit. Now, maybe this is offset by the low gasoline prices. A month or so ago, unleaded regular was around $3.50 a gallon. Today, the BP station in town was at $2.72 a gallon. A decrease of over $0.75 a gallon. To fill a twenty gallon tank you save $15! Wow, that helps pay for increase in groceries, so maybe the discretionary income doesn't take a hit. Another factor is many people have learned to live with less following 2008. The credit card companies continue to hammer away in the advertising department, but many families have cut "play money" and instead save it, because no one wants to be on the loosing end of 2008 again. Based on what do you conclude most hobbyist buy and don't care about the price? I see no evidence of that.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2014 17:45:31 GMT -8
I just picked up a RTR daylight set. 8 cars, and the A/B engine set. I'm still waiting for some of the cars in the mail, but I ran the 3 I got, and the observation car kept derailing. Turns out the truck had so much flash stuck on it, that whenever the track wasn't 100% flat it would snag on a tie and derail. An exacto knife fixed it in a jiffy, and while I have no doubt that Athearn would have mailed me out a new truck had I requested one, it was a little off-putting that their RTR car couldn't even roll properly out of the box.
But on the flip side, I can get an entire passenger train for less than the price of an MTH steam engine. There's something to be said for that.
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Post by atsfan on Dec 4, 2014 18:02:14 GMT -8
I just picked up a RTR daylight set. 8 cars, and the A/B engine set. I'm still waiting for some of the cars in the mail, but I ran the 3 I got, and the observation car kept derailing. Turns out the truck had so much flash stuck on it, that whenever the track wasn't 100% flat it would snag on a tie and derail. An exacto knife fixed it in a jiffy, and while I have no doubt that Athearn would have mailed me out a new truck had I requested one, it was a little off-putting that their RTR car couldn't even roll properly out of the box. But on the flip side, I can get an entire passenger train for less than the price of an MTH steam engine. There's something to be said for that. RTR = Ready to Repair
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Post by bnsffan on Dec 4, 2014 18:45:34 GMT -8
atsfan,
I suspect that very few modelers in the number 4 category (Just buys and isn't effected by the price) will admit it.
Respectfully, BNSF Fan
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Post by atsfan on Dec 4, 2014 19:45:32 GMT -8
atsfan, I suspect that very few modelers in the number 4 category (Just buys and isn't effected by the price) will admit it. Respectfully, BNSF Fan I would like to be one!
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Post by WP 257 on Dec 4, 2014 20:29:29 GMT -8
There are times I just buy what I want, like the Genesis Reading GP-7. Despite my issues finding a good one, when you have a good one you really do have something! But then the wife isn't always happy with my spending, so I'll sell other stuff, after the purchase, to help offset the cost. Money in general is tighter these days and I make do with less rolling stock than in years past.
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Post by Judge Doom on Dec 4, 2014 22:36:33 GMT -8
Does it really matter? No. This is a hobby. Not food. Or heat. Or medicine. Or housing. Or a car. Or gasoline to go visit grand mom . Or a child. Nobody is asking for more details in 2014. This is discretionary income. Who cares why train prices will go up? People just won't BUY them. I don't go into a train store and see Athearn hoppers that have doubled in price (same car no more details) and gladly pay for them because I have no idea what the direct costs are. I don't care. I just shake my head and move on. Now this is something I agree with you about! That reminds me, I've snapped up a bunch of old-run Atlas 60' auto parts boxes from someone selling them around their older MSRPs ($16-18). New releases announced? $28 per car. Same tooling, no improvements. Same with the ol' ACF cylindrical hopper Atlas has been pumping out for years. It used to be what, an $18-22 regular line car, now it's a $32 Master line car (but with no improvements, same old tooling, same cast-on grabs on the side sills). Methinks, time to find some more old stock sitting around at older lower prices.
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Post by Brakie on Dec 5, 2014 2:54:25 GMT -8
Methinks, time to find some more old stock sitting around at older lower prices. ------------------------------------- Been saying that for years-older models still work..
I've also been told over those same years that they are outdated by today's "standards"..
Who exactly goes around sitting these so called "standards" that must be followed by the horde is still a man of mystery.
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Post by riogrande on Dec 5, 2014 4:31:39 GMT -8
Money in general is tighter these days and I make do with less rolling stock than in years past. That's true for me, at least until my daughter is out of college - that's 2 1/2 more years baby! Not that it isn't going to a good cause... Edit: the name of this thread reminds me of an old Steve Miller song: "quality keeps on slippin slippin slippin, into the future..." =P
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Dec 5, 2014 7:08:52 GMT -8
The last pre order I did was for an undecorated BLI undecorated E8A, that was last year. Before that an Athearn Genesis DDA40X with sound. That was a two years ago. I have only purchased one model train this year and that was a BLI undecorated E8A and B. I have since sold the set as I ended up short of money and needed to pay bills like electricity, water, gas, etc..
So all these new models flooding the market sure as heck are not being bought by ME. I don't even qualify for number one status on my own list!!!!
Now, SOMEBODY MUST BE ordering and buying all the new models which are hitting the market. All or nearly all of the Bowser C-636's are sold out, a few stragglers can be found but not many. All the stuff Athearn brings in every month and announces every month must be selling or getting the necessary pre orders for every month Athearn has another laundry list of new products. Bowser is working on GMD SD40-2's and hints of ALCo RS-3's in Phase II and III. Intermountain may someday actually get the Paducah and Tampa rebuilds released. Meanwhile they keep pumping out their SD40-2, GEVO's and freight car fleet. MTH is still in the market. BLI is actually releasing models on a regular basis. Even Atlas has been upping the pot with HO releases of locomotives and freight cars. What about Rapido? Fox Valley Models is in with the GP60. I'm sure I've forgotten some.
So, for all the people on this board crying about price, who the heck is buying and ordering all this new product, month after month, year after year? Could it be that this hobby isn't gasping its final breath like some on this thread and many other similar threads in the past have stated over and over and over?
All I know is I personally own five locomotives, one passenger car, detail parts and tools. That is it. So I sure as heck ain't feeding the new product machine.
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Post by riogrande on Dec 5, 2014 8:22:40 GMT -8
So, for all the people on this board crying about price, who the heck is buying and ordering all this new product, month after month, year after year? Could it be that this hobby isn't gasping its final breath like some on this thread and many other similar threads in the past have stated over and over and over? People will always cry about price - just like it is human nature to complain about all kinds of things. It has a tendency to snowball which is why forums, more and more are having to put a "governor" on it. If manufacturers continue to produce product, it's because it is probably selling. Move on.
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Dec 5, 2014 8:29:31 GMT -8
So, for all the people on this board crying about price, who the heck is buying and ordering all this new product, month after month, year after year? Could it be that this hobby isn't gasping its final breath like some on this thread and many other similar threads in the past have stated over and over and over? People will always cry about price - just like it is human nature to complain about all kinds of things. It has a tendency to snowball which is why forums, more and more are having to put a "governor" on it. If manufacturers continue to produce product, it's because it is probably selling. Move on. Well put.
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Post by Brakie on Dec 5, 2014 8:46:50 GMT -8
So, for all the people on this board crying about price, who the heck is buying and ordering all this new product, month after month, year after year? Could it be that this hobby isn't gasping its final breath like some on this thread and many other similar threads in the past have stated over and over and over? People will always cry about price - just like it is human nature to complain about all kinds of things. It has a tendency to snowball which is why forums, more and more are having to put a "governor" on it. If manufacturers continue to produce product, it's because it is probably selling. Move on. Jim,I'm at the point where I can pick and choose,completely ignore or buy the older models on the use market. I've been looking for years for the rule(rules?) that state one must buy the newest models or gimmicks to enjoy the hobby and still haven't found it.. My Athearn RTR SW1500 started life as a DCC ready engine now,it has DCC/Sound and still cost less then BLIs DCC/Sound equipped SW1500..I recently picked up a P2K SCL GP9 with DCC/Sound for $70.00 simply because the owner declared it obsolete because of the Genesis GP9 with DCC/Sound.
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Post by riogrande on Dec 5, 2014 9:56:18 GMT -8
uh huh.
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Post by mlehman on Dec 5, 2014 10:42:43 GMT -8
So, for all the people on this board crying about price, who the heck is buying and ordering all this new product, month after month, year after year? Could it be that this hobby isn't gasping its final breath like some on this thread and many other similar threads in the past have stated over and over and over? People will always cry about price - just like it is human nature to complain about all kinds of things. It has a tendency to snowball which is why forums, more and more are having to put a "governor" on it. If manufacturers continue to produce product, it's because it is probably selling. Move on. From what I can read, it's pretty much the same people warning that high prices will be the death of the hobby. Compared to my income, everything is high priced. My major purchases in the last two years have been a Blackstone C-19 and 6 drop-bottom gons. That's about $30/month for a budget. And it's taken some effort at times, with buying other little things needed around the layout. So there's a lot of people still out there buying some trains and some still buying lots of trains. Most of them have a bigger budget than mine. They're not price-insensitive, they just seem to believe they're getting good value, more or less, from what they buy. So they talk about other things and, for the most part, are the more interesting for it.
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Post by lvrr325 on Dec 5, 2014 11:30:12 GMT -8
I can tell you this - I do a lot of shows as a dealer and my average sale is around $15. Used stuff, new stuff, old kits, current items... last week I sold a whole batch of Accurail kits, most discounted to $14. Granted I do one table and don't carry a ton of high dollar engines, but the ones I do, maybe one sale every other show is for something over $50.
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Post by grahamline on Dec 5, 2014 12:50:32 GMT -8
Buying locally has its advantages, which I can appreciate after several years living 200 miles from a good train shop. My local guy is very good about getting in the new releases, so we can inspect models on the counter before they come come home. My personal feeling is that eBay shippers are responsible for some damages, because the goods out of his cartons from Horizon etc. don't show the same rate of damage that is mentioned here.
One thing that does hurt the hobby in general is the shrinking number of fun things that can be bought for $20 or less -- that seems to be a threshold for casual impulse buys.
As far as accuracy, I just don't buy expensive products that will need reworking -- it's easier to start with an undec (they can be found) or a second-hand swap meet model.
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Post by atsfan on Dec 5, 2014 18:42:41 GMT -8
I have been in three large train stores in three states over the past months. In each I have chatted with the people in them. One question was about the expensive MTH and Broadway Steam engines. The ones $400 and up. Some at $600. I did not see any in the stores. All three stores said "nobody is buying them". Hence they did not order any. One did say he has sold a few Bachmann expensive steamers.
This is not me making this up by reading the internet. So I guess somebody out there is buying the expensive stuff, but it sure is not mainsteam or widespread.
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Post by atsfan on Dec 5, 2014 18:44:43 GMT -8
One other thought is I think many people are doing like me, just being much more selective. I have not "stopped" buying. But I sure have slowed down and am focused on fewer things. Once upon a time I might have bought a Tank Train Unit Train, or upgraded to the IM Metal Sided auto racks, or sampled some other items. But I am not doing that now.
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Post by NS4122 on Dec 5, 2014 20:14:49 GMT -8
I have been in three large train stores in three states over the past months. In each I have chatted with the people in them. One question was about the expensive MTH and Broadway Steam engines. The ones $400 and up. Some at $600. I did not see any in the stores. All three stores said "nobody is buying them". Hence they did not order any. One did say he has sold a few Bachmann expensive steamers. This is not me making this up by reading the internet. So I guess somebody out there is buying the expensive stuff, but it sure is not mainsteam or widespread. Who buys expensive locomotives at hobby shops anymore? Most hobby shops don't discount as much as on line retailers. A $450 MSRP steam locomotive (PRR H10) is $150 less on line and they are sold out. People are buying expensive stuff, just not from Hobby shops. You of all people should know that because you have been putting the nail in the LHS's coffin for years for that very reason.
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Post by Brakie on Dec 6, 2014 1:46:01 GMT -8
I have been in three large train stores in three states over the past months. In each I have chatted with the people in them. One question was about the expensive MTH and Broadway Steam engines. The ones $400 and up. Some at $600. I did not see any in the stores. All three stores said "nobody is buying them". Hence they did not order any. One did say he has sold a few Bachmann expensive steamers. This is not me making this up by reading the internet. So I guess somebody out there is buying the expensive stuff, but it sure is not mainsteam or widespread. When I buy a expensive RTR locomotive guess where I shop? Nope not the not so local hobby shop..I refuse to fork over full MSRP when I know I can buy the same engine for less or wait until the feeding frenzy has pass and pick one up at deep discount on line-I've seen new Geneses DCC ready CR GP9s as low as $99.00. When I was buying the high end cars those too was purchase on line since I usually bought 2 or 3..Again I refuse to pay full MSRP when I know I can buy the cars cheaper on line. Looking at the newly release cars in stock at full MSRP one could get the impression nobody is buying those either.
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Dec 6, 2014 6:21:04 GMT -8
Just look at how fast M.B. Klein moved the majority of the new Bowser C-636's. In hours many road names and numbers were sold out. My local hobby shop has C-636's in stock, but the LHS's price is $25 higher for a non-sound unit, $40 higher for sound.
$40 buys you a freight car. People are shopping price, but they are still buying, just not from the LHS.
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Post by fr8kar on Dec 6, 2014 6:39:52 GMT -8
You can build up a fleet of nice rolling stock without breaking the bank, but you're going to have to get your hands dirty. That was the whole point of the ACF 4600cf and FMC 4700cf threads I started. I don't have much money into those cars at all. The metal wheels and etched roofwalks are probably as much or more than I paid for the cars themselves. The rest is building materials like plastic strip and wire, some paint and decals.
Yesterday I found an Athearn RTR New Orleans Public Belt boxcar at the hobby shop. I have always wanted one of those and since it was only twenty bucks, I bought it along with the Micro Sol I came in for originally. It has nice trucks with metal wheels and separate hand holds on the sides. But the underframe is not painted, there is no brake rigging connected to the cylinder, the long handholds on the ends of the car weren't installed and of course there are no cut levers or air hoses, all of which would be installed on a Genesis car for forty bucks. So I fabricated the brake rigging, added new long handholds, cut levers and air hoses and mixed up some orange to paint the underframe. Total time involved: about two hours. And it was fun and relaxing. It also got me motivated to add the same details to an old Eel River beer car, so bonus points for my collection.
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Post by nebrzephyr on Dec 6, 2014 7:19:21 GMT -8
snip....So I fabricated the brake rigging, Good point. Been wanting to do the same thing but lack the knowledge of how the piping goes. Any chance you could post a photo? Thanks. Bob
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Post by atsfan on Dec 6, 2014 7:39:33 GMT -8
I have been in three large train stores in three states over the past months. In each I have chatted with the people in them. One question was about the expensive MTH and Broadway Steam engines. The ones $400 and up. Some at $600. I did not see any in the stores. All three stores said "nobody is buying them". Hence they did not order any. One did say he has sold a few Bachmann expensive steamers. This is not me making this up by reading the internet. So I guess somebody out there is buying the expensive stuff, but it sure is not mainsteam or widespread. When I buy a expensive RTR locomotive guess where I shop? Nope not the not so local hobby shop..I refuse to fork over full MSRP when I know I can buy the same engine for less or wait until the feeding frenzy has pass and pick one up at deep discount on line-I've seen new Geneses DCC ready CR GP9s as low as $99.00. When I was buying the high end cars those too was purchase on line since I usually bought 2 or 3..Again I refuse to pay full MSRP when I know I can buy the cars cheaper on line. Looking at the newly release cars in stock at full MSRP one could get the impression nobody is buying those either. All three of these stores are discounters, and have large mail order businesses. So in this case full MSRP was not the issue.
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Post by dti406 on Dec 6, 2014 7:45:09 GMT -8
snip....So I fabricated the brake rigging, Good point. Been wanting to do the same thing but lack the knowledge of how the piping goes. Any chance you could post a photo? Thanks. Bob You need to find and build a Moloco Kit of the GATC RBL Boxcar, it is a great learning experience on how to build the brake air lines, rodding and guides. Here is the underframe on the car after I attached all the hardware. I have used this knowledge to pipe some other cars that only had the ABD Valve, Air Reservoir and Brake Cylinder as the underbody detail. Here is the underframe on a IMRC Milk Car, another great learning experience, Rick J
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Post by bnsffan on Dec 6, 2014 7:53:16 GMT -8
atsfan,
Do you mind telling us the names of the stores?
Respectfully, BNSF Fan
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Post by TBird1958 on Dec 6, 2014 8:09:02 GMT -8
Maybe I'm just lucky, I got this Genesis '57 Reefer as a gift yesterday, right out of the box - It's perfect, love the attention to detail, the end steps are metal and very finely done - kudos Athearn. I'll happily consign another BB Posuer with this to take it's place, I don't mind having fewer, better quality models that actually represent their prototype.
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