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Post by notabob on Nov 6, 2015 6:32:33 GMT -8
This seems to be a hot topic lately. We really need some consistency on this forum for all future polls.
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Post by fr8kar on Nov 6, 2015 7:00:20 GMT -8
Satire for the win!
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Post by bdhicks on Nov 6, 2015 8:11:44 GMT -8
I think a No option should be included just because there are people who will always feel the need to share that they are not interested in something, and a No option in the poll means fewer of them will be clogging up the discussion with their disinterest. Obviously there are still people who will feel the need to clog up the discussion anyway, but there's only so much one can do about that.
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Post by SOMECALLMETIM on Nov 6, 2015 15:35:37 GMT -8
I didn't see a No option for your "Should every poll include a 'No' option?" poll.
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Post by atsfan on Nov 6, 2015 16:04:18 GMT -8
I wanted to vote no..............:-o
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Post by notabob on Nov 6, 2015 16:23:45 GMT -8
I didn't see a No option for your "Should every poll include a 'No' option?" poll.  |
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Post by Paul Cutler III on Nov 6, 2015 19:35:59 GMT -8
I have never understood why anyone takes the time to actually post, "Nope" or "I don't want one" or "My wallet will remain shut." Seriously, imagine if everyone did that. The vast majority of modelers don't want any one thing, so every thread would be cluttered with negative posts.
I model the NH, and only the NH. Imagine how much I could run my post count up if on every new product announcement, I post, "Nope, I don't want one of these." That would get old, real quick: I don't want double stacks. I don't want SD40-2's. I don't want C-415's. I don't want M-630's. I don't want U30B's. I don't want FT's. I don't want K-4's. I don't want SD70ACe's. I don't want Ford Taurus cars. I don't want UPS trailers. And so forth and so on, ad nauseum. Jeez, it would never end. Yet there are people on this forum that just can't wait to tell us they're not buying something. Why? I mean I get it that you don't want something, but why tell us?
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Post by Christian on Nov 7, 2015 0:31:16 GMT -8
Yet there are people on this forum that just can't wait to tell us they're not buying something. Why? I mean I get it that you don't want something, but why tell us? "They" seem to want to stamp their feet and turn blue because of being denied the right to express the importance of their "neigh!"  I find it fairly easy to not read threads about things about which I'm not interested. Other folks can't wrap their minds about that concept. ARTHUR: No! Not the Knights Who Say ‘Ni’! HEAD KNIGHT: The same! BEDEVERE: Who are they? HEAD KNIGHT: We are the keepers of the sacred words: Ni, Peng, and Neee-wom! RANDOM: Neee-wom! ARTHUR: Those who hear them seldom live to tell the tale! HEAD KNIGHT: The Knights Who Say ‘Ni’ demand a sacrifice! |
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Post by mlehman on Nov 7, 2015 2:39:25 GMT -8
I have never understood why anyone takes the time to actually post, "Nope" or "I don't want one" or "My wallet will remain shut." SNIP ...And so forth and so on, ad nauseum. Jeez, it would never end. Yet there are people on this forum that just can't wait to tell us they're not buying something. Why? I mean I get it that you don't want something, but why tell us? I suppose there's some belief that if they keep saying "No!" the marketing folks will pay attention and eventually produce whatever it is they want. But I'm pretty darn sure that's not the way research and marketing work. A vendor wants to know about the "Yes!" folks, because that eventually adds up what they need to make the minimum needed to produce a profitable run. "Nope!" is pretty darn irrelevant in that scheme of things. It's nothing more than noise in the lower reaches of the data and tells the vendor exactly nothing. Most of all, "Nein!" doesn't say anything about what is actually wanted, even though it seems mostly motivated by disappointment in the announcement not including something they want. Sometimes what is wanted instead is mentioned, but that rarely has any influence given the circumstances. If you were a vendor, would you take suggestions seriously from someone who just told you they're not interested in your current project? Maybe, but most likely not, even more so if it's some obscure prototype. |
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Post by riogrande on Nov 7, 2015 6:18:25 GMT -8
Where is the "no" option in this poll?
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Post by mlehman on Nov 7, 2015 7:30:46 GMT -8
Where is the "no" option in this poll? It's sitting on a shelf somewhere, along with the "irony" option. |
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Nov 7, 2015 8:09:14 GMT -8
I recently did a poll on Budd bi-level commuter cars. I included the option of NO or "I don't need no stinking Budd cars" in my poll. If memory serves me correctly NO won the poll.
The latest poll on both of the Amtrak locomotives is one of those things that you either want or don't want. They are specific to Amtrak or in the case of the SDP40F modified by one road, three if you count the BNSF patches and the Doyle McCormick owned unit.
There is still a lot of room for manufacturers to release new products. However, it gets a little tedious when a vocal few either bang the drum insistently for a specific model or the other vocal few that dead pan everything that doesn't interest them.
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Post by mlehman on Nov 7, 2015 9:26:42 GMT -8
I recently did a poll on Budd bi-level commuter cars. I included the option of NO or "I don't need no stinking Budd cars" in my poll. If memory serves me correctly NO won the poll. SNIP If you think about it for a moment, when is there ever a model RR product where the NO! option would NOT win if a survey was done that reached a significant portion of the model RR community? Most people don't want any option but one that suits their needs. Fair enough. But if vendors went by survey results that included NO! as an option then NOTHING would ever get built. That's one of the big reasons why vendors tend to ignore NO! It's just not very useful info when they already know that most model railroaders won't buy that Pennsy Boxcar or Rio Grande K-28. Yet both get built. It's sure not because anyone's reading the tea leaves of NO! |
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Post by curtmc on Nov 7, 2015 9:55:50 GMT -8
If the exact question asked can be answered with "No" or "I don't" then they should be part of the selections...
(And by the way, for a couple of years I had to prepare poll selection answers for transportation issue questionnaires)
PS. The recent poll in the HO forum on top of the issue of not having a "No" or "I don't" option also didn't include appropriate options for if one were to be interested in a HO RTR version (like Genesis, IM or Atlas) or other chassis options...
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Post by curtmc on Nov 7, 2015 10:02:56 GMT -8
WRONG!!!!
Having a "no" option gives the potential manufacturer a better idea of what their total market SHARE might possibly be... (and 30-50% wanting something is a sizable share). Without any "no" or "I don't" option they cannot get any read at all on whether the 50 people who answered the poll were from 60 or 6,000 people who saw it and wanted to answer.
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Post by mlehman on Nov 7, 2015 10:58:32 GMT -8
WRONG!!!! Having a "no" option gives the potential manufacturer a better idea of what their total market SHARE might possibly be... (and 30-50% wanting something is a sizable share). Without any "no" or "I don't" option they cannot get any read at all on whether the 50 people who answered the poll were from 60 or 6,000 people who saw it and wanted to answer. curt, I respectfully suggest that it's a very rare item in the model railroading market that EVER draws even a 30% interest in the market. Like maybe spikes? And that's only because the three main choices there would be spikes, track nails, or some form of adhesive. I suppose you could have NO! in there...maybe some do still just through down some Snap Track and leave it loose? But does that matter if you intend to produce a product for fastening track? Probably not, you only care about is whether those who intend their track to stay in one place are a big enough market, not those who are happy to keep nudging their track back into position. Even a modern UP diesel (or CSX, if you prefer), probably as close to something in all-around demand for a RTR loco or rolling stock item as there is these days, is unlikely to draw the interest of maybe 10%  of all modelers -- and even that is probably fragmented by scale (O and N, for instance). And that's assuming you could get a survey in front of a statistically significant number of modelers. What a vendor wants to know is whether or not there's enough interest to sell that 5,000 lot of an item he needs to make the minimum factory order needed. There it's the YES that counts. People who don't buy are non-factors for the most part. About the only place where NO! is important is something that's a bit edgy or controversial. Take the EL U23B under discussion. Basically a foobie if your talking about the 1:1, but even Sprikre sounded interested despite his aversion to such things in the normal course of business. I could see NO! being relevant there, but most of the time it's not. Why? Because the MRR market is so fragmented by prototype, scale, and even such things as the great DC vs DCC gap, NO! is essentially meaningless with most surveys (although I can understand your point about the importance of the NO! option in public policy and infrastructure, all of us live in the same 1:1 world.) Blackstone doesn't care if 98% of the market says NO! to a HOn3 K-28. They just need enough YES! to know the run will be profitable. And it's pretty much the same with, ahem, more standard items. |
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Post by atsfan on Nov 7, 2015 12:16:04 GMT -8
Any proper poll used to decide to make a product or not would figure out market interest overall to size the sales potential.
Just asking converts/fanboys/foamers about a product is going to lead to skewed results.
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Post by MONSTERRAILROAD on Nov 7, 2015 19:45:35 GMT -8
Any proper poll used to decide to make a product or not would figure out market interest overall to size the sales potential. Just asking converts/fanboys/foamers about a product is going to lead to skewed results. Yes, what this guy said. |
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Post by calzephyr on Nov 7, 2015 22:14:16 GMT -8
Yes, every poll should have a NO option.
Or
No, every poll should have a yes???
Larry
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Post by bdhicks on Nov 7, 2015 22:52:31 GMT -8
The No option was inside of you the whole time, you just had to believe in yourself.
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Post by mlehman on Nov 9, 2015 8:15:08 GMT -8
Any proper poll used to decide to make a product or not would figure out market interest overall to size the sales potential. Just asking converts/fanboys/foamers about a product is going to lead to skewed results. Yes, what this guy said. I think the problem here is seeing these sorts of surveys as winner-take-all votes. This is typical in the US, because that's how we run elections (mostly). Not trying to be political here, but model railroading is more like a parliamentary system, where the point is to allow everyone at least some representation, even if they're not in the ruling majority. If our hobby was winner-take-all, we all would have the choice of Pennsy (in the past) or UP (in the present). All the rest of you can take a hike. But that's not the way it is. Instead, all kinds of lines get respect, however, it may vary, from vendors for RRs big, small, and in between. Another point of confusion is whether this is a vote or formal poll or simply a survey. The point of the former is to get a statistically significant sample size on a question of mutual concern. NO! is important there. If you were going to bring out (yet another) F unit, then, yes, you'd want to know about NO! And you might be well advised to go to the trouble and expense of getting a large enough pool to analyze the NO! For something as obscure as a Pooch and in as small of numbers as such a model would be produced? You mainly want to know if there are numbers interested that would support what you intend to do. I think it's safe to say that 99% do NOT want a Pooch. But that's an irrelevant number. For the rest, you do exactly what the ill-fated survey did -- ask what form and features the proposed model should have. NO! is inconsequential, it's getting enough YES! to proceed that counts. You're only wasting effort to ask about a response you already know the answer to. Then there's the folks that think that them saying NO! all the time to what others want will somehow eventually deliver the model THEY personally want. Magical thinking at it's best on that one. |
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Post by Paul Cutler III on Nov 9, 2015 9:27:41 GMT -8
Curt,
Really? "WRONG!!!!"? Wow. Shouting at us doesn't make your opinion better. Try decaf.
Model railroading market share info isn't going to be found using no votes. Why? Because it doesn't take into account all the people that don't vote at all. Remember, we're talking about polls on this forum, and this forum only. We're not talking about nationwide opinion polls here where people are called. This is a participant-driven poll where people have to opt in, not a phone poll where people can opt out.
Also, market share in terms of this hobby and specifically about potential new products means absolutely nothing. Manufacturers don't care if a certain percentage of people want their products, they only care about the number of people that want their products.
If there's 250,000 model railroaders in the USA, and 55% of them are in HO, that means that there's only 137,500 HO modelers. If only 5% of those buy one model each, that's 6875 units sold. That's a good run today. But say there are some that buy 2 or 5. That means the percentage of modelers may be as little as 2% or 3% of the total modelers yet still buying 6875 units. This would still be a runaway success in today's market. Even a run of 3000 units would be considered a success, meaning the total percentage of modelers buying the product could be less than 1%.
Basically, this means that every single poll for new products would overwhelmingly be "no" if everyone answered the poll...every time. What good does that do? Just to find out that less than 1% of the market wants something?
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Post by atsfan on Nov 9, 2015 11:33:36 GMT -8
It is not irrelevant for a manufacturer deciding on producing an item that 99% of the market does not want the item.
I would love to see that go through Shark Tank !
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Post by atsfan on Nov 9, 2015 11:36:15 GMT -8
Curt, Really? "WRONG!!!!"? Wow. Shouting at us doesn't make your opinion better. Try decaf. Model railroading market share info isn't going to be found using no votes. Why? Because it doesn't take into account all the people that don't vote at all. Remember, we're talking about polls on this forum, and this forum only. We're not talking about nationwide opinion polls here where people are called. This is a participant-driven poll where people have to opt in, not a phone poll where people can opt out. Also, market share in terms of this hobby and specifically about potential new products means absolutely nothing. Manufacturers don't care if a certain percentage of people want their products, they only care about the number of people that want their products. If there's 250,000 model railroaders in the USA, and 55% of them are in HO, that means that there's only 137,500 HO modelers. If only 5% of those buy one model each, that's 6875 units sold. That's a good run today. But say there are some that buy 2 or 5. That means the percentage of modelers may be as little as 2% or 3% of the total modelers yet still buying 6875 units. This would still be a runaway success in today's market. Even a run of 3000 units would be considered a success, meaning the total percentage of modelers buying the product could be less than 1%. Basically, this means that every single poll for new products would overwhelmingly be "no" if everyone answered the poll...every time. What good does that do? Just to find out that less than 1% of the market wants something? Logical, but. How does one find out the 5% number of buyers? That to me seems the art of it. |
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Post by alcoc430 on Nov 9, 2015 14:39:46 GMT -8
I think everyone missed the point. The poll that started this debate was for a RESIN P30ch shell kit not a mass produced plastic injection item. So we are talking about 20 to 50 pieces.
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Post by notabob on Nov 9, 2015 14:55:28 GMT -8
It is not irrelevant for a manufacturer deciding on producing an item that 99% of the market does not want the item. I would love to see that go through Shark Tank ! A bunch of umm... "vocal members" on this forum is 99% of the market. Right, then. |
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Post by atsfan on Nov 9, 2015 15:06:51 GMT -8
It is not irrelevant for a manufacturer deciding on producing an item that 99% of the market does not want the item. I would love to see that go through Shark Tank ! A bunch of umm... "vocal members" on this forum is 99% of the market. Right, then. Nobody said that. Not even close to saying that. Refer to the post above which says the 99% is irrelevant. |
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Post by notabob on Nov 9, 2015 18:36:21 GMT -8
A bunch of umm... "vocal members" on this forum is 99% of the market. Right, then. Nobody said that. Not even close to saying that. Refer to the post above which says the 99% is irrelevant. Ok. Fair enough. Let's get some context then: For something as obscure as a Pooch and in as small of numbers as such a model would be produced? You mainly want to know if there are numbers interested that would support what you intend to do. I think it's safe to say that 99% do NOT want a Pooch. But that's an irrelevant number. 's assertion above that a 'No' option in a poll on this forum about members' desire for a P30CH shell (which 99% of this forum's members would select if they were forced to participate in that poll) is irrelevant is followed by: It is not irrelevant for a manufacturer deciding on producing an item that 99% of the market does not want the item. So how is this you not saying that a bunch of people on this forum saying 'No' is 99% of the market? |
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Post by mlehman on Nov 9, 2015 19:46:21 GMT -8
I actually didn't bother with the poll here, just figured my comments would serve well enough to get my opinion across. I can certainly see the point of asking people what they think about this, including no 'NO!' option, which probably would've been my choice. I am fascinated that the majority of those participating chose "Depends" given it's an adult sanitary garment. A telling choice, that one I'm just about that age myself.  Although my STAT skills are limited, some of my research involves the consequences of the intentionally misleading uses of statistics and the scientific method. I won't claim to know it all, however.  The question here is really about whether the sample size is sufficient to be statistically significant to be a formal survey. I'd argue, as one other person was already wise enough to specifically note, that in no way shape or form was the closed poll ever intended to be used to take a statistically significant sample. No one made any such claims, except some of the critics who projected their own version of events onto things. Given no such claims were made, the criticism was simply off-base. I understand why curtmc thinks the way he does about this, given the little I know about his work. However, it is a mistaken notion to think that the omission of 'NO!' invalidates the results of the survey. It simply sets aside a known and essentially null piece of data. What's really fascinating is the loud objections from those who seem to make a habit of noting their loud objections even when no one cares about 'NO!'. I suppose this means they're just missing the point entirely that models can and will be produced despite their objections. If you want that kind of veto power, buy yourself a model RR company and sit on its board. Until then, people aren't really all that interested in the Chicken Little Effect of the Constant 'NO!' But that's just the extremes. It's an unfortunate habit that the internet has only made worse. It's on ample display in a revived thread talking about Atlas producing some locos lettered for an obscure Carolina shortline. Quite the chorus of 'NO!' in there, except for the wisdom of Larry/Brakie and a few others, yet the model is now arriving. I'm rather glad for those wanting this model that Atlas apparently pays little attention to 'NO!' and looks to see how many "Yes" it receives. |
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Post by Paul Cutler III on Nov 10, 2015 8:46:37 GMT -8
atsfan,
Finding the X% of the total is irrelevant. They only need to get 3000+ models sold to be successful. They could sell 3000 pieces to one guy and they'd be happy.
Telling the manufacturers "no" means nothing. They only care about "yes". Tell a manufacturer that you want a product and they might make it. Tell a manufacturer that you don't want a product and they'll ignore you.
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