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Post by sd40dash2 on Mar 23, 2020 6:17:51 GMT -8
As I see it, there are two main challenges facing this hobby right now:
1. the risk of shipping stuff (virus can transmit via surfaces)
2. sudden and mass job losses causing income to be instead allocated to life necessities like groceries, rent, heating, taxes, repairs
Could this be the end for a lot of companies in this hobby? Are you still spending the same on hobby items as you were before this pandemic broke?
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Post by ambluco on Mar 23, 2020 6:25:50 GMT -8
There is no shipping risk. CDC has said the chances of the virus living during the conditions of transit are close to zero. The virus living on surfaces is under ideal conditions like in your house or work on the counter or a box. As I see it, there are two main challenges facing this hobby right now: 1. the risk of shipping stuff (virus can transmit via surfaces) 2. sudden and mass job losses causing income to be instead allocated to life necessities like groceries, rent, heating, taxes, repairs Could this be the end for a lot of companies in this hobby? Are you still spending the same on hobby items as you were before this pandemic broke? |
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Post by jonklein611 on Mar 23, 2020 6:41:30 GMT -8
No option for no change in spending? I've got the stuff I pre-ordered planned for. If new stuff comes out that I want, I'll order it (assuming I have budget).
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Post by sd40dash2 on Mar 23, 2020 7:11:38 GMT -8
Thanks for the responses. Good points:
1. It was my oversight not to include a poll option for 'maintain existing spending', but I don't think I have the ability to update the poll now
2. I should have been clearer on shipping risk. While surface transmission is possible as mentioned above, I was also thinking of the risks of interaction with other people and surfaces when we go out in public to a) deliver box to PO and b) for recipient to pick up box from PO (if applicable). The need to do a and b present risks for shipper and receiver including the possibility that anyone, incl any postal employees (at one or both sides) we interact with are possibly passing infection. Lastly, when I was at the grocery store last week I found that most people were unwilling to practice social distancing and were moving about as though everything was normal. Their body language suggested it was too inconvenient for them, so they simply carried on. I can control how I practice social distancing but I cannot control others who may not do so. Delivering and picking up postal shipments puts us all (IMO) at added risk due to all these (and possibly others) factors.
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Post by Gary P on Mar 23, 2020 8:37:20 GMT -8
Reduced, but there are always impulse buys! (Not really, the impulse buys are the ones that I reduced.)  |
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Post by riogrande on Mar 23, 2020 9:26:19 GMT -8
I made an extra trip to Lowes this weekend to top off my supply of lumber; in case the gov shuts down all but critical stores, want to have most of what I need to get all the bench-work up. But over all no real increase or decrease.
There is a guy on another forum who lives in Florida and says he just put in a one thousand dollar order with MBK to be sure he has everything he needs for a layout is getting started on. A few, at least, seem to be spending more in the short term just to stock up to be able to keep working on layout or trains while on lock down or home during the crisis.
But for me, I'm not increasing or decreasing in the short term. So none of the poll choices work for me.
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Post by edgecrusher on Mar 23, 2020 10:18:25 GMT -8
No change for me either. I'm still working, tho a small part of me wouldn't mind a shut down. I rarely get any hobby time for myself these days. Even if everything went into lockdown I have years worth of stuff I could work on if given the time.
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Post by riogrande on Mar 23, 2020 10:28:35 GMT -8
I'm in the same boat. Basically no hobby time on week days but some on the weekends depending on what my wife drags me away for. So far I'm still working my 40 per week, although 2 to 3 days are tele-work, so still no time for hobby week days.
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Post by valenciajim on Mar 23, 2020 11:02:44 GMT -8
I have pretty much everything I need, but I do have a ton of stuff on order from Rapido.
I think the shortages we are experiencing are a short term problem. Once the world develops herd immunity to the corona virus, we will see a rebound in available products.
Model Railroading is a microcosm of the overall economy. Retired people will feel the bite because their 401(k) and other retirement plans are severely depressed. Since so many of us are either already retired or are nearing retirement, I am not certain how the hobby will be impacted.
Depending on how long the social isolation lasts, a lot of businesses will either cease to operate or will be acquired. I think that is true in the model railroading industry as well as throughout the overall economy. I would expect to see an industry consolidation. This has been in the cards for a while and the current depressed state of economic affairs will merely accelerate what was already coming.
One interesting thing to watch out for is that US industry is recognizing the problems with having the supply chain being so dependent on China. I expect technological advances in the coming decade that will allow us to gradually reduce our dependence on Chinese manufacturing. I suspect that will be true for the model railroading industry as well.
I think it is likely that this problem will add $5 to $10 trillion to the national debt and eventually taxes will have to be increased. Long term that will mean less disposable income.
Hobbyists and manufacturers/importers will adjust to the new paradigm.
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Post by riogrande on Mar 23, 2020 11:39:26 GMT -8
It's really hard to say. During the last recession (roughly 2008 - 2012 or so) some say the model railroading thrived. Also reportedly China is returning to manufacturing so I'm not quite as pessimistic about the model train industry. But other sectors yes, will probably get hit. Airlines and travel especially.
I am not quite so pessimistic about the model train industry based on the great recession; it seems like the Chinese factory closures 9 years ago and AFFA in 2018 hurt availability more.
I am looking forward to some items due during this year, but otherwise I've got a pretty good inventory of trains should new products tail off significantly.
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Post by jbilbrey on Mar 23, 2020 20:21:59 GMT -8
I haven't spent any on this hobby since the virus pandemic really started to escalate here in the States, but that is partly due to me spending two weeks during a three-week period on the road. By the time I took stock of what I had and what I needed to work, the LHS in my area and many of the online hobby shops I order from had closed.
So, it is back to the bench to work on what I have on hand. I am not too concerned yet because I have plenty to work on. However, I do wonder what the possible ramifications this virus will have on the hobby as the economy likely contracts and people re-evaluate how and on what they spend their money on.
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Post by brakie on Mar 24, 2020 1:46:46 GMT -8
This virus hasn't slowed my spending at all.. You see I already cut purchases to what I really need or like to have like (say) a Lima 1,000 HP switcher, FM H20-44 or maybe a United Models UP 0-6-0..
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Post by valenciajim on Mar 24, 2020 17:09:55 GMT -8
I think the LHS is going to face a tough time. It's too bad that you cannot stop by and get a model to go just like in a restaurant.
I received the following e-mail message from Smith Brothers Hobby Center in Northridge, CA:
To our loyal customers,
It's been a tough few weeks for all of us. We at the shop have been busy trying to keep things rolling, as many have been hung up at home with nothing to do. The building of models and remote control activities has been a fantastic way to pass the time.
Unfortunately, today's latest news states all non-essential retail stores in California are to close immediately. That includes us. This has us sad and concerned, but we need to do our part in looking at the big picture. The well-being of our families, friends, and this city is most important. So we will abide by the new rule and be shut down until otherwise told. The initial announcement is to last through April 19th. We will be back better than ever, so please keep us in mind.
Until then, we will try our best to fill online orders through our Facebook page. If you have any questions or concerns, please contact us there and we will do our best to accommodate you. We will also keep everyone informed as to opening dates or any new developments that would enable product sales.
Our thoughts our with our customers, employees, and their families. Be well and we look forward to serving you soon!
Sincerely,
Jason Eminian
Smith Brothers Hobby Center
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Mar 24, 2020 18:28:12 GMT -8
I think the LHS is going to face a tough time. It's too bad that you cannot stop by and get a model to go just like in a restaurant. I received the following e-mail message from Smith Brothers Hobby Center in Northridge, CA: To our loyal customers, It's been a tough few weeks for all of us. We at the shop have been busy trying to keep things rolling, as many have been hung up at home with nothing to do. The building of models and remote control activities has been a fantastic way to pass the time. Unfortunately, today's latest news states all non-essential retail stores in California are to close immediately. That includes us. This has us sad and concerned, but we need to do our part in looking at the big picture. The well-being of our families, friends, and this city is most important. So we will abide by the new rule and be shut down until otherwise told. The initial announcement is to last through April 19th. We will be back better than ever, so please keep us in mind. Until then, we will try our best to fill online orders through our Facebook page. If you have any questions or concerns, please contact us there and we will do our best to accommodate you. We will also keep everyone informed as to opening dates or any new developments that would enable product sales. Our thoughts our with our customers, employees, and their families. Be well and we look forward to serving you soon! Sincerely, Jason Eminian Smith Brothers Hobby Center That letter just neatly sums it up. The disruption to hobbies is going to be seen at the retail level. But, even distributors and manufacturers may also be shuttered by"stay in place" orders. Bowser is one manufacturer, who I know had to shut down. Just like the virus all of us have to ride it out and hope for the best. |
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Post by thebessemerkid on Apr 12, 2020 1:59:55 GMT -8
There is no shipping risk. CDC has said the chances of the virus living during the conditions of transit are close to zero. The virus living on surfaces is under ideal conditions like in your house or work on the counter or a box. As I see it, there are two main challenges facing this hobby right now: 1. the risk of shipping stuff (virus can transmit via surfaces) 2. sudden and mass job losses causing income to be instead allocated to life necessities like groceries, rent, heating, taxes, repairs Could this be the end for a lot of companies in this hobby? Are you still spending the same on hobby items as you were before this pandemic broke? Viability of the virus depends on time, temperature, humidity and the surface on which it resides. For anyone concerned, leave any shipped items in the garage for 3 or 4 days to pretty much guarantee any virus present is no longer viable. |
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Post by fcixdarrell on Apr 13, 2020 13:48:23 GMT -8
The two model railroad companies I am currently working with are still moving forward with both cars in the manufacturing pipeline and cars in the research and design phases. The factories we deal with in China are up and running but we currently can't get Kadee couplers to the factory in China for an order of cars just hitting assembly. Deliveries to mainland China (as well as other countries) is a problem, with packages just sitting who knows where with "delivery schedule pending" showing. Things are coming out of the factories as I've been getting samples, but the delivery dates on those packages show the same "pending" up until they are confirmed as delivered.
While we are still planning future releases and working towards those goals, we'll see how long it takes to get them to market.
Now, the big question is what's going to happen once the current products in the pipeline are completed and shipped. Are there going to be sufficient orders to keep the factories busy, and open after this is over? We could potentially see a contraction of available factory space in China if some of the factories are forced into producing other types of products if the model train market goes really soft.
On our side of the ocean, we could very possibly see some manufacturers (importers) go under depending on their cash flow situation and the length and depth of the recession we are now in. This isn't a big return on the investment industry and a lot of businesses plow their profits back into the next product so they don't have much money socked away for times like this. Hopefully not to many folks livelihoods reliant on this industry will be impacted to the point of having to do something else.
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Post by riogrande on Apr 13, 2020 14:21:53 GMT -8
he factories we deal with in China are up and running but we currently can't get Kadee couplers to the factory in China for an order of cars just hitting assembly. Deliveries to mainland China (as well as other countries) is a problem, with packages just sitting who knows where with "delivery schedule pending" showing. So rather than rolling stock sit and not be shipped simply because Kadee's cannot be shipped to them, why not ship them without coupler's and charge a little less and we install them ourselves. How hard can it be? Better to keep product flowing and return to factory installed later. Are orders really reducing that it is a major concern? I remember during the last recession 2008-2012+, it's been said that model train purchases increased rather than decreased. As said in Monty Python, we're not dead yet. We might pull through. |
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Post by fcixdarrell on Apr 13, 2020 15:16:06 GMT -8
he factories we deal with in China are up and running but we currently can't get Kadee couplers to the factory in China for an order of cars just hitting assembly. Deliveries to mainland China (as well as other countries) is a problem, with packages just sitting who knows where with "delivery schedule pending" showing. So rather than rolling stock sit and not be shipped simply because Kadee's cannot be shipped to them, why not ship them without coupler's and charge a little less and we install them ourselves. How hard can it be? Better to keep product flowing and return to factory installed later. Are orders really reducing that it is a major concern? I remember during the last recession 2008-2012+, it's been said that model train purchases increased rather than decreased. As said in Monty Python, we're not dead yet. We might pull through. Most customers would balk at installing couplers on a RTR car. Kadee isn't shipping orders to shops right now. If they didn't have couplers on hand, they are just as screwed as not having the car. They don't build cars to sit on shelves just to keep product flowing plus the combination of no couplers and decreasing sales says at this point, it's better to wait and see how long package shipping is hosed and wait until we can get couplers to them. Cash flow is a huge concern to businesses, good times or bad. During this pandemic, for a lot of segments of business, there is no cash coming in. Depending on how long this lasts, the lack of cash flow is going to do some businesses in. While we aren't dead yet, the resulting recession from this is not going to be like 2008. This is probably going to be a much longer recovery than 2008-2012. I suspect that there's going to be a shakeup in this industry (probably more consolidations or transfer of mold ownership) before this is all over. Some of the cash strapped or over extended companies are probably going to end up closing their doors or selling their assets. The industry will pull through, but with fewer players. |
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Post by riogrande on Apr 13, 2020 17:17:25 GMT -8
Well, if it's all going to $hi+, I've got more than enough trains. My wallet may get a break - it's been getting hammered enough.
Anyway, what good comes from predicting bad things. It isn't like there is enough to worry about. Pile on some more. Give us more to not look forward to. Thanks.
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Post by canrailfan on Apr 14, 2020 8:04:44 GMT -8
Most customers would balk at installing couplers on a RTR car. Kadee isn't shipping orders to shops right now. If they didn't have couplers on hand, they are just as screwed as not having the car. They don't build cars to sit on shelves just to keep product flowing plus the combination of no couplers and decreasing sales says at this point, it's better to wait and see how long package shipping is hosed and wait until we can get couplers to them. I don't think too many customers would have a problem installing the couplers if they were packaged separately in the box. Many of us change out the factory couplers anyway (i.e., KD 5s to 58s, KDs to Sergents). Packaging the cars and getting the product out of the factory would reduce cashflow problems for both the factory and the manufacturer (importer). If companies really don't think customers will buy models without the couplers installed, another option is to ship the cars without couplers and set up a place here to install the couplers. Rapido did something like this when they had a problem with the decoder programming on their recent RS11s. They reprogrammed them all at their warehouse in Markham. This seems like a better option than just letting everything sit in limbo. Speaking of Rapido, I think they make their own couplers in China. Maybe they can supply other factories as well. As far as I have seen, their current couplers are as reliable as Kadees. (Their first ones several years ago were not very good.) If cashflow is so critical, getting products to market means manufacturers may need to look at temporary solutions rather than just sit and wait. |
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Post by riogrande on Apr 14, 2020 9:05:24 GMT -8
]I don't think too many customers would have a problem installing the couplers if they were packaged separately in the box. It's not a matter of install or not at the factory, what fcixdarrell mentioned earlier is there is a problem getting Kadee's shipped over to China so the factories have them available to include in models being produced. If they have them they can install them. Or better yet, throw in plastic clones for those who would freak if they got a train car without couplers and the rest of us can carry on like always and install our own Kadee's. We already have to do that with most Atlas and all Athearn rolling stock as it is. Yes, if things are a doom and gloom as fcixdarrell purports, then creative solutions that can keep product and cash flowing might save a company or two. But we've seen some companies shut down for other reasons and usually another company absorbs their assets. We saw that with BLMA and a few others. So if 6 months of Corona doom a few companies, hopefully the products can still live on under another flagship. |
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Post by thebessemerkid on Apr 21, 2020 14:11:41 GMT -8
Subtract the price of the couplers and ship them.
Sitting on inventory will cost you more than lost sales. Plus people like discounts.
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Post by sd40dash2 on May 21, 2021 17:35:19 GMT -8
Interesting to re-read this thread and poll results 1.5 yrs later.
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