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Post by sd40dash2 on Mar 24, 2020 12:49:23 GMT -8
This is a repost of the original thread (https://atlasrescueforum.proboards.com/thread/8088/global-pandemic-coronavirus-impact-model) in order to provide more meaningful poll options and stats.
I believe there are two main challenges facing this hobby right now:
1. the risk of shipping stuff -- while surface transmission is possible as mentioned above, I was also thinking of the risks of interaction with other people and surfaces when we go out in public to a) deliver box to PO and b) for recipient to pick up box from PO (if applicable). The need to do a and b present risks for shipper and receiver including the possibility that anyone, incl any postal employees (at one or both sides) we interact with are possibly passing infection. Lastly, when I was at the grocery store last week I found that most people were unwilling to practice social distancing and were moving about as though everything was normal. Their body language suggested it was too inconvenient for them, so they simply carried on. I can control how I practice social distancing but I cannot control others who may not do so. Delivering and picking up postal shipments puts us all (IMO) at added risk due to all these (and possibly others) factors. This hobby cannot function without a safe and robust shipping industry.
2. sudden and mass job losses causing income or emergency savings funds to be instead allocated to life necessities like groceries, rent, heating, taxes, repairs
Please respond to the poll & feel free to discuss in the thread if you have not already done so in the other thread. |
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Post by jonklein611 on Mar 24, 2020 13:01:23 GMT -8
For existing preorders, I've already factored those into my budget. If anything else pops up, I'll consider it but it must meet my needs and be at the correct price point.
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Post by fr8kar on Mar 24, 2020 20:02:08 GMT -8
I bought a couple items last week, but I don't have time to do any modeling lately.
I'm very curious to see how things play out at work. Most of the industries we serve are receiving raw materials to make finished goods: scrap metal and petcoke to finished I-beams, technical tallow to industrial lubricants, wheat to flour, paper products for product packaging and shipping, vegetable oils, corn syrup and grains to human food and animal feeds, and so on. Others receive bulk goods for construction, such as lumber, asphalt, portland cement, sand, aggregates, etc. When businesses close some of these shipments will be affected, but it's difficult to know how much or for how long. Our division management and local management seems open to the idea of changing the scheduled yard jobs to better serve the customers, but again it's difficult to know what changes need to be made yet. We are certainly staying busy in the yards and on the main line.
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Post by thunderhawk on Mar 25, 2020 13:39:51 GMT -8
Sales have been ok so far, however I am running into some supply issues with the resins I use.
Going to try some from a US producer, the only one I'm familiar with, however that will lead to more experimentation.
Really reading the restrictions for "essential businesses" in the WI stay at home order I feel safe still working at my remote shop as I fall under a couple exemptions. It's just me at this point anyway and I do no walk in retail.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2020 22:08:06 GMT -8
stuck at home with too much time to model, and my income hasn't changed...
I've already picked up a few backstock items that I hadn't planned on getting, due to them suddenly being available on a major retailers website. USPS is still delivering, quickly too.
And I shudder to see what my wife says when I tell her that I want to pre-order all 13 tropicana reefers that Atlas just announced.
I'm just lucky that I work for one of those life sustaining businesses that needs to stay open, while at the same time being able to work from home.
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Post by Great-Northern-Willmar Div on Mar 26, 2020 7:12:57 GMT -8
I'm stuck at home but have a steady income. I have steady bills too!  But, I'm finding and buying models and supplies at reasonable prices, some even cheap and they are still making it to the door step. Though, at a much increased time between order and arrival. Working on a model while listening to some music, sure beats sitting in front of the TV being bombarded about COVID-19. |
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Post by stevef45 on Mar 26, 2020 7:48:14 GMT -8
Im an emergency services dispatcher here in NNJ right outside NYC. Thankfully im still able to get my regular days off but those aren't days off as my son's school is closed so i homeschool him on my days off. That in itself is a nightmare lol Im not cut out to teach. Only bright side is is he is learning math better the way I was taught compared to how they are being taught now with "common core" math. I tried working on some models here at work over hte weekend when there's no management but didn't really accomplish much except for painting a nathan k3 horn and lift rings for a bnsf sd40-2 that needed a correct horn and added lift rings. Purchasing wise im not really looking at big purchases right now. Been working on the house I inherited which will get a shelf layout in the future.
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Post by sd40dash2 on Mar 27, 2020 8:13:23 GMT -8
Fascinating poll results thus far!
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Post by dieselgiants on Mar 30, 2020 5:02:33 GMT -8
We are designing a nice 22 x 64 layout and ordering materials. Walthers has some delays from China. EBay has some decent deals. What this whole knee jerk reaction brings to mind is how the hobby has changed and the advent of internet sales. BTW my wife works Public Health and on frontline here in California. She is very busy. I am a biologist by education with NBC training - nuke bio & chem warfare. I understand impacts, disease transmission, surface viability, etc. Very well. The US has a problem for sure. Part of it is people's selfishness and self-centered behavior and inability to follow rules that expose others and increase the probability of contracting and spreading. Look at Mardi Gras and LA with rapidly escalating numbers. Panic shopping throughout the Country. Very sad indeed.
Going back to shiiping and receiving. People keep misunderstanding virus biology. They are not alive they are "viable" meaning that little mRNA protein packet is capable of causing its host to replicate itself. They DO NOT grow on surfaces. They may remain "viable" though. Folks need to understand simple definitions too like risk vs. Probability. The risk is what is going to happen is you get sick, the probability is the "chance" you will become ill. The ratio in US is 8 people per 1 million. Really low. The seasonal flu is closer to 240 per million. The other factor is how contagious it is. This is called the R/0 or R nought value. Covid-19 is 2.25 vs. 2.0 for flu. How many people on average will one sick person infect. Pretty low. Measels is 18!
Anyways, keeping distances, washing hands, keeping your fingernails trimmed and clean ( some guys just don't get this grooming habit and walk around with disgusting and repulsive dirty bacteria laden fingernails. Real men to keep their nails short and clean. Don't pick your nose, don't eat hand food without washing your hands and so on! Prwtty simple.
Going back to the internet, this has had a much greater impact on the hobby and elimination of tons of local hobby shops than the virus. If you have enough stuff to work on hold your money and once this ordeal is ocer, go to your LHS and spend your money there as they are gonna suffer. My local LHS, The Train Shop in Santa Clara, CA has been my supplier for 44 years. I know they are going to need my train dollars. We need to band together and support these shops. We need these shops. They NEED us!
This ordeal is going to last for a while. Let's make sure that we train folks don't put anymore nails in our LHSs! For those stores like Hobby Lobby that are putting the owner's personal wealth (shame on you Mr. Green) ahead of employee safety (IMHO) and as reported by WAPO, NYT, CNN, Fox, DON'T give them a single penny.
Rant over.
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Post by jonklein611 on Mar 30, 2020 9:16:15 GMT -8
Supporting LHS in my area is impossible as all non-essential businesses have been closed.
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Post by riogrande on Mar 30, 2020 9:39:28 GMT -8
Are they not operating in a mail order or curb pick up mode? Many hobby shops are able to operate that way, online or call-in orders, and still comply.
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Post by jonklein611 on Mar 30, 2020 9:56:22 GMT -8
Are they not operating in a mail order or curb pick up mode? Many hobby shops are able to operate that way, online or call-in orders, and still comply. MY LHS haven't entered the 21st century yet... I'll continue supporting my online shops that I leverage. To be fair, they are a local shop, just not local to me. |
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Post by fr8kar on Mar 30, 2020 10:40:08 GMT -8
For years I tried supporting the few local train stores, but I'd usually leave with sympathy purchases at retail or retail+ in the hopes I could throw some business their way. I say sympathy purchases because these shops haven't had anything in stock I want for at least a decade so I get something else I can repurpose, maybe...
The one exception to this is Discount Model Trains, but they are way across town. It's a 90 minute round trip in Dallas traffic, so it's rare I'm willing to suffer through that. They have never had an online presence as far as I can tell. They do have a nice selection of models, but their detail parts section has always been the attraction for me. In the past few years it's dwindled down, but I'm not sure if that's them not restocking, the various vendors producing fewer detail parts or a combination of the above. After coming away from a few trips for detail parts empty handed I turned to ebay and haven't looked back.
Now I do have a local hobby shop that caters mostly to the RC crowd and they do a brisk business. They're willing to order paints, plastic, glues, tools and other supplies for me so I buy all that stuff there, usually to the tune of $50 each month. They have some trains, but it's mostly stuff I'm not interested in, so I don't buy it. When they do stock something I want, like a tank car or highway trailer for example, I'll buy it right away at full retail, no problem. They've been good to me so I try to return the favor.
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Post by thebessemerkid on Apr 12, 2020 1:53:25 GMT -8
We are designing a nice 22 x 64 layout and ordering materials. Walthers has some delays from China. EBay has some decent deals. What this whole knee jerk reaction brings to mind is how the hobby has changed and the advent of internet sales. BTW my wife works Public Health and on frontline here in California. She is very busy. I am a biologist by education with NBC training - nuke bio & chem warfare. I understand impacts, disease transmission, surface viability, etc. Very well. The US has a problem for sure. Part of it is people's selfishness and self-centered behavior and inability to follow rules that expose others and increase the probability of contracting and spreading. Look at Mardi Gras and LA with rapidly escalating numbers. Panic shopping throughout the Country. Very sad indeed. Going back to shiiping and receiving. People keep misunderstanding virus biology. They are not alive they are "viable" meaning that little mRNA protein packet is capable of causing its host to replicate itself. They DO NOT grow on surfaces. They may remain "viable" though. Folks need to understand simple definitions too like risk vs. Probability. The risk is what is going to happen is you get sick, the probability is the "chance" you will become ill. The ratio in US is 8 people per 1 million. Really low. The seasonal flu is closer to 240 per million. The other factor is how contagious it is. This is called the R/0 or R nought value. Covid-19 is 2.25 vs. 2.0 for flu. How many people on average will one sick person infect. Pretty low. Measels is 18! Anyways, keeping distances, washing hands, keeping your fingernails trimmed and clean ( some guys just don't get this grooming habit and walk around with disgusting and repulsive dirty bacteria laden fingernails. Real men to keep their nails short and clean. Don't pick your nose, don't eat hand food without washing your hands and so on! Prwtty simple. Going back to the internet, this has had a much greater impact on the hobby and elimination of tons of local hobby shops than the virus. If you have enough stuff to work on hold your money and once this ordeal is ocer, go to your LHS and spend your money there as they are gonna suffer. My local LHS, The Train Shop in Santa Clara, CA has been my supplier for 44 years. I know they are going to need my train dollars. We need to band together and support these shops. We need these shops. They NEED us! This ordeal is going to last for a while. Let's make sure that we train folks don't put anymore nails in our LHSs! For those stores like Hobby Lobby that are putting the owner's personal wealth (shame on you Mr. Green) ahead of employee safety (IMHO) and as reported by WAPO, NYT, CNN, Fox, DON'T give them a single penny. Rant over. Where are you coming up with 8 per million? US has 328 million people. Latest stats for covid are: Updated Apr 12 at 5:26 AM local Confirmed 533,378 (that's 1628 per million) +28,598 Deaths 20,601 (62.8 per million) +1,838 Recovered 32,026 (97.6 per million) +3,033 As for prevention, it's somewhere between warranting droplet and airborne precautions (it's a continuum). That means if you're within coughing distance + a cushion, because there is suspension in the air for some time, you need masks + eye protection (anything hitting your eyes gets washed by tears which get drained theough the nasolacrimal duct right into the upper respiratory system). Viability on surfaces is a major problem. Anything high-touch gets touched, people wipe their eyes, nose or mouth and transmission is complete. It's why NYC is such a disaster. People packed in like sardines, the subways being virtual petri dishes. Cool metal surfaces (like in a subway) are ideal for virus longevity. Anyway, so much for the tangent. The hobby right now is a good outlet for people's stress and boredom. With weather getting warmer, lots of people are doing yard work or house cleaning. What's bad is sitting in front of the boob tube getting blasted by prognostications of doom from CNN, NYT or any of the news outlets who pimp any disaster. It's a known problem, we understand it (better every passing day) and there are known solutions. It's not the end of the world (save for those who succumb), but it is a significant bump. Maybe people will come out of it a little more aware of their surroundings and a little more self-reliant. Some anyway. |
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But, I'm finding and buying models and supplies at reasonable prices, some even cheap and they are still making it to the door step. Though, at a much increased time between order and arrival. Working on a model while listening to some music, sure beats sitting in front of the TV being bombarded about COVID-19.
