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Post by WP 257 on Jan 11, 2014 11:24:23 GMT -8
Babalooey and others--
OK, one of my favorite stores has spoken candidly to me, too--they said immediately after the 9/11 attacks their sales plummeted, by like 50%. Since then things have recovered, somewhat.
However, since that time the internet and internet sales also exploded, and American culture has changed as well, so that just because some of the outstanding train stores left may be experiencing a negative trend does not necessarily mean the overall picture is as grim as some of them report or might lead us to believe--because over that same time frame internet sales have increased. So they are only giving us part of the picture (room here for another Yogi-Berra-ism--"You are never as bad as it looks when things are going badly"...but I'm likely butchering the quote).
I know the good folks at Bowser, and I can assure you that at the time they planned the C430, they never intended to "dump a large number of them" on the market right before Christmas. They generally don't or haven't planned on big Christmas-time releases--that's likely just how it worked out. They also most likely don't spend a whole lot of time trying to forecast price trends in the industry--that would be like trying to forecast future vehicle traffic growth which is like picking a number out of the sky.
Historically, most manufacturers did try to make sure their products were out on the street and available by Christmas--because it does most retailers little good to have the hot new items arrive in February and sit around all year collecting dust until the next Christmas Season.
The overall American economy is most likely just not as rosy as the media are depicting, with long term unemployed falling off the books, so it seems retailers may have had a "down" year.
I can say that in this area bad weather during November and December did cost at least one train store many 10's of thousands of dollars in Saturday sales, over multiple Saturdays--but that's not a long term trend.
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Post by WP 257 on Jan 11, 2014 11:44:01 GMT -8
As far as prices go--I saw it time and again with brass models, going back to the 1980's--every time the price reached some price point--say $500 for a factory painted diesel, there were those who said "I'm not going to buy them"...yet they still sold to somebody, and the prices kept going up and there's been plenty of models delivered since then.
I'm certainly not rich at all, but there's still (mostly plastic) trains I'm going to buy--just less of each of them as the price point rises.
I no longer can entertain buying more than one of an engine at a time, when I used to buy all road numbers of anything I liked. That's my new reality. I also blew out freight engines and freight cars to focus on only passenger trains...thus limiting myself there, too. So now I buy one A unit and avoid A-B sets of anything...When I can pull 10 or 12 passenger cars with a single unit, easily, then B units become just an un-necessary luxury.
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Post by Spikre on Jan 11, 2014 13:18:40 GMT -8
 its January,put the Lionel away already !! quote Mom !! and thats what many will do,but the dates may be febuary,march, or april,depending on the local weather. most that have some sort of Model Train items arnt into the hobby all year. so its a rush to get the stock rationalized before it goes dead. Spikre 
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Post by jlwii2000 on Jan 11, 2014 14:15:10 GMT -8
James-- My response wasn't intended to be directed at you (though I guess it reads that way), and I like using a little sarcasm, but perhaps that doesn't come through very well in print. I'm not upset...just tired of reading from some of the same people (not James) that the sky is falling. The HO crowd in general has been somewhat reluctant to accept MTH products, at least relative to the O-scale crowd. I also have no idea what is going on behind the scenes--whether or not certain distributors need to clean their shelves prior to February tax time in some states or not. It seems certain folks are always bemoaning the death of the hobby, and I'm just growing tired of reading about it--plus it's driving away good folks from these forums. I know some folks have perceptions that MTH's prices are too high for what they are providing, or are too high relative to BLI, so sales of MTH product could reflect some of that. There's also good BLI stuff available for 40% off list at major dealers too--whether or not any of it was "factory refurbished" and is being sold as new by unscrupulous dealers (as has I think happened to me) is anyone's guess. Perhaps it's just an innocent coincidence that some dealers are now offering "brand new" BLI stuff at the exact same price as BLI's "factory refurbished" (not legally sold as new) models. I smell a rat, Batman. If the price seems too good to be true, and isn't from a highly reputable online major dealer, then I avoid it. As it is, I just spent $60 more for the privilege of putting a BLI Santa Fe 4-8-4 on layaway from a trusted store rather than taking low online prices from some folks I didn't trust. I took an online "deal" on an MTH passenger car recently, that was supposed to be "brand new", and I received a shelf worn box containing an imperfect car, which might have been a "blem" or else the dealer was just an idiot and broke stuff and sent it out that way...Either way, I'm never ordering from him again. Also, my most recent Walthers passenger car arrived from a reputable online dealer with blemishes, too, so maybe I'm just ticked off that nobody is adequately inspecting the plated finish passenger cars at the importer before they go out. No problem, I jumped the gun myself so my apologies. You are right about the HO scale crowd's reluctance to accept MTH. I am split because I have several good running MTH products. But I have also had my fair share of bad MTH products, service and attitude so I'm still on the fence about MTH. I think MTH could do wonders for their products if they just had better customer service and warranty support. I personally don't think the hobby itself is dying or any manufacturer will die. A lot of people were thinking Exactrail would die when they eliminated dealers and that didn't happen. So you have a point where some people really think the hobby will be ending soon. I'm just not one of those people, and I hope they aren't right. |
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Post by calzephyr on Jan 11, 2014 15:34:06 GMT -8
James-- My response wasn't intended to be directed at you (though I guess it reads that way), and I like using a little sarcasm, but perhaps that doesn't come through very well in print. I'm not upset...just tired of reading from some of the same people (not James) that the sky is falling. The HO crowd in general has been somewhat reluctant to accept MTH products, at least relative to the O-scale crowd. I also have no idea what is going on behind the scenes--whether or not certain distributors need to clean their shelves prior to February tax time in some states or not. It seems certain folks are always bemoaning the death of the hobby, and I'm just growing tired of reading about it--plus it's driving away good folks from these forums. I know some folks have perceptions that MTH's prices are too high for what they are providing, or are too high relative to BLI, so sales of MTH product could reflect some of that. There's also good BLI stuff available for 40% off list at major dealers too--whether or not any of it was "factory refurbished" and is being sold as new by unscrupulous dealers (as has I think happened to me) is anyone's guess. Perhaps it's just an innocent coincidence that some dealers are now offering "brand new" BLI stuff at the exact same price as BLI's "factory refurbished" (not legally sold as new) models. I smell a rat, Batman. If the price seems too good to be true, and isn't from a highly reputable online major dealer, then I avoid it. As it is, I just spent $60 more for the privilege of putting a BLI Santa Fe 4-8-4 on layaway from a trusted store rather than taking low online prices from some folks I didn't trust. I took an online "deal" on an MTH passenger car recently, that was supposed to be "brand new", and I received a shelf worn box containing an imperfect car, which might have been a "blem" or else the dealer was just an idiot and broke stuff and sent it out that way...Either way, I'm never ordering from him again. Also, my most recent Walthers passenger car arrived from a reputable online dealer with blemishes, too, so maybe I'm just ticked off that nobody is adequately inspecting the plated finish passenger cars at the importer before they go out. No problem, I jumped the gun myself so my apologies. You are right about the HO scale crowd's reluctance to accept MTH. I am split because I have several good running MTH products. But I have also had my fair share of bad MTH products, service and attitude so I'm still on the fence about MTH. I think MTH could do wonders for their products if they just had better customer service and warranty support. I personally don't think the hobby itself is dying or any manufacturer will die. A lot of people were thinking Exactrail would die when they eliminated dealers and that didn't happen. So you have a point where some people really think the hobby will be ending soon. I'm just not one of those people, and I hope they aren't right. James I purchased two of the MTH # 1 scale locomotives from Ebay and the sound system to go with them about seven to eight years ago. I had some problems with the Challenger and the MTH service was excellent on those items with MTH paying the shipment back to me in California, which is no small amount of money. I have never sent in any HO products and so I am not familiar with the way things are now. At that time, I sent an email and was answered promptly and the problem was resolved by sending the engine back to them after an RMA was issued. I don't believe the hobby is going away, but the costs have risen sharply in the last 10 years. This is due to buyouts of both Lifelike P2K and Athearn but we now have much better quality in both detail and sound is almost a standard installed option now. I know this is an old time and probably tired statement, but my first brass NKP 2-8-4 imported by PFM cost $64.95. That said, I watched the NKP steam in the early 1950 era and now own a bunch of those by PFM, DVP, PSC and even two of the P2K sound versions. I like them all and the PFM is solid but lacks much of the fine detail that the other have. Still, it only cost me $64.95 and that was small change for me in 1969. Prices have risen to the level that I only purchase used brass now since they are discounted compared to the latest offerings. Discounts and blowouts as I tend to call them have always been part of this hobby going back to 1970 when AHC sold the Rivarossi Big Boys for $25 each. They were the large flange model with the 3 pole motor but they sold a lot of those. I have three which are useless, but they were cheap or inexpensive. The next big blowout that I remember was the P2K models before the company was sold and they were really a bargain. I purchase 10 or so of the SD9's for $29 each. BLI also started to blow out models about 10 years ago and I picked up several PCM/BLI Big Boys for a song and several N&W J's with sound for $150. The deals were great and life continued with new owners running BLI without the founders. In the case of the MTH models discounted, they probably just have way too many and need to move stock. Larry |
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Post by Brakie on Jan 11, 2014 17:25:01 GMT -8
Robert,If you heard some of the things I heard over the past few months you'll find its no longer "Supply and demand pricing". I think we just seeing the tip of the iceberg..
Model trains isn't a necessity like a house or car or food,or college, or other life necessities. Its a past time with a slim budget for most modelers..
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Post by atsfan on Jan 11, 2014 17:55:51 GMT -8
"Why do so many modelers fail to grasp simple economics or think that manufacturers like Athearn don't know what they are doing? Some people have gone as far as to suggest that there be some
form of mandated price controls imposed on hobby goods to "control run away prices". Prices are what they are."
Whoever said there should be mandated price controls? I have not seen that so please cite your claim.
As for Athearn and others knowing what they are doing, who cares! I know what I am doing. With MY money. That is all that matters to me.
Prices are what they are. That does not mean people have to or are going to pay whatever prices is slapped on a model train box.
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Post by Brakie on Jan 11, 2014 19:54:17 GMT -8
As for Athearn and others knowing what they are doing, who cares! I know what I am doing. With MY money. That is all that matters to me.
Prices are what they are. That does not mean people have to or are going to pay whatever prices is slapped on a model train box.
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I been hearing about the same thing for the past several months...
Wonder why some modelers can't grasp that?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2014 19:58:15 GMT -8
There is no such thing as "negative gross sales". What did you mean to write? Gross sales have shrunk. |
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Post by mrsocal on Jan 11, 2014 19:59:17 GMT -8
DITO!!!!! to Larry's post.
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Post by curtmc on Jan 11, 2014 22:09:51 GMT -8
Probably because those manufacturers make so many mistakes - like paint and printing errors, quality control misses, and also under and over-production of various items... Getting a paint job right should be much simpler than the proper pricing or production numbers, but yet most can't even get that right.
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Post by curtmc on Jan 11, 2014 22:13:01 GMT -8
He probably meant DECLINING gross sales... Which is what every hobby sales outlet I know - including those with large internet business - are saying is happening.
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Post by mlehman on Jan 11, 2014 23:29:20 GMT -8
Probably because those manufacturers make so many mistakes - like paint and printing errors, quality control misses, and also under and over-production of various items... Getting a paint job right should be much simpler than the proper pricing or production numbers, but yet most can't even get that right. Hmmm, most paint is wrong nowadays? I guess it's a good thing there was no internet back in the day, because there sure would have been plenty to talk about then.  Besides, I don't need perfection to satisfy, just a good representation, sort of like a...model.  I guess if anyone ever did produce that exquisitely perfect model, it would sell millions. Until then, most models are held back by their paint jobs, I suppose. Imagine what a perfect model would cost? Don't worry, price would be no object with a perfect model. And they'll still sell a million. And when someone does come up with the Perfect Sales Predictor, he'll not only have the entire model railroad industry beating down his door, but every manufacturing outfit on Earth. There are bad examples out there that make an overrun of a few hundred locos look like the peanuts it is. Ever hear of the Edsel? The Vega was Chevy's contribution to that game. I think unreasonable expectations are part of the problem here. If I'm looking at someone's scratchbuilt whatever, it's usually over-the-top modeling at its best. Do I expect a mass-produced item to be comparable? Not really. The main reason is that would make models cost so much that...well the board would implode with the angry words exchanged about who is to blame. Heck, $40 freight car is practically the death knell of our hobby over on the MR forum right now. The idea that a $40 car is a dangerous thing is news to those of us in narrowgauge. Which is kinda interesting. We've had $40 and higher rtr cars for some time now thanks to Blackstone. Funny thing is I don't think I've heard a peep about them costing too much. In fact, people are very glad to get them. Very odd compared to here, don't you think? But we narrowgaugers all know what the alternative is -- build it yourself. When narrowgaugers see a RTR car, the first thing we think of is what we could do with all the extra hours that won't be spent building it. The first thing many who model only in standard gauge seem to think is that is must cost too much. My sympathies to all you who just aren't having any fun |
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Post by Brakie on Jan 12, 2014 2:56:12 GMT -8
The first thing many who model only in standard gauge seem to think is that is must cost too much. My sympathies to all you who just aren't having any fun ------------------------------------------------------ Well Mike,here's the rub that's rubbing a lot of modelers the wrong way.. Its the ever increasing prices that seems to be all the rage on cars that's been available for years with no changes. So,its no deal since they can buy the same car from a older release for fraction of the newest release cost.The same applies to locomotives.. Make no mistake they're still having fun and saving money by buying older runs of cars and engines and like one guy said when there's less demand and sales start falling the manufacturers will need to rethink their strategy. |
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Post by mlehman on Jan 12, 2014 7:14:28 GMT -8
The first thing many who model only in standard gauge seem to think is that is must cost too much. My sympathies to all you who just aren't having any fun ------------------------------------------------------ Well Mike,here's the rub that's rubbing a lot of modelers the wrong way.. Its the ever increasing prices that seems to be all the rage on cars that's been available for years with no changes. So,its no deal since they can buy the same car from a older release for fraction of the newest release cost.The same applies to locomotives.. Make no mistake they're still having fun and saving money by buying older runs of cars and engines and like one guy said when there's less demand and sales start falling the manufacturers will need to rethink their strategy. Larry, I guess I could understand all this angst about prices better if they really mattered all that much in the short term to the hobby. Fact is that one can get into model railroading at any level. MRH will announce the winner of it's $500 layout contest in the Feb. issue. Now if it was a $5,000 layout or a $50,000 layout to get you going, I could see that serving as a high bar to entry to the hobby. If the vast supply of used gear, replenished regularly by those of us who believe in the "he who has the most toys, wins" sector of the hobby as we die off, didn't exist, I could see the price of new locos and rolling stock impacting the entry level. If kits didn't exist, if there was no alternative to the many purchases that can be made either new or used, then current prices would impact those who want to go railroading in miniature as they would have no other choice. One comparison is very apt here. Americans love their cars. Looked at buying a new car lately? No, neither have I. Way too expensive for 90% of us here, most likely, too. Yet millions of Americans are getting around OK, sometimes even in style, because we buy used cars. You don't see people lined up on street corners thumbing rides because they can't afford a new car. Why do new cars cost so much? A lot of answers there I won't bother pursuing, but the main thing is they have to be produced and sold at a profit according to the current cost of production. Same thing with model railroad items. True, in some cases -- unlike with autos -- there have been essentially no updates, just a RTR car delivered to you instead of a kit. But the costs of producing that RTR car now are substantially different than original production of the kits. Is this killing the hobby? It would if there was a lot of merch sitting around unsold and MRR vendors were dropping like flies. But they're not. They seem to make a profit, which is what is required to keep the cycle of new product going. Just as with autos, most of us buy or have stuff purchased at much lower cost than what new product costs. Since it seems to mostly sell out, they must be doing something right. So I tend to take these arguments about the cost of new gear a lot like the cost of a new car. Sure, I'd like to have a spiffy new Mercedes G-Wagen, but at well over $100,000 that's just not happening. Besides, my 97 LandCruiser can do everything it can, way cheaper. Do I waste much time being bitter about the truck I can't afford? Zero time, I've got better things to do. Or am I making a mistake thinking some sort of mismatch between expectations and resources is at the root of the problem here? |
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Post by Brakie on Jan 12, 2014 7:46:55 GMT -8
Or am I making a mistake thinking some sort of mismatch between expectations and resources is at the root of the problem here?
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No,I don't think so..
Here's a prime example of the rub that rubbing modelers wrong..
Do you recall the 60 year old Athearn BB 50' gon? The newest run will be around $24.00 and the only thing improved it now has metal wheels..
As far as I know the car is 100% foobie and there's thousands floating around at train shows and on e-Bay for less then $10.00.
The old BB 50' "Railbox" boxcar sells for about the same price with metal wheels and no real improvements.
Atlas is just as bad with some cars that been around for decades.
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Post by atsfan on Jan 12, 2014 8:36:38 GMT -8
Probably because those manufacturers make so many mistakes - like paint and printing errors, quality control misses, and also under and over-production of various items... Getting a paint job right should be much simpler than the proper pricing or production numbers, but yet most can't even get that right. Hmmm, most paint is wrong nowadays? I guess it's a good thing there was no internet back in the day, because there sure would have been plenty to talk about then. Besides, I don't need perfection to satisfy, just a good representation, sort of like a...model. I guess if anyone ever did produce that exquisitely perfect model, it would sell millions. Until then, most models are held back by their paint jobs, I suppose. Imagine what a perfect model would cost? Don't worry, price would be no object with a perfect model. And they'll still sell a million. And when someone does come up with the Perfect Sales Predictor, he'll not only have the entire model railroad industry beating down his door, but every manufacturing outfit on Earth. There are bad examples out there that make an overrun of a few hundred locos look like the peanuts it is. Ever hear of the Edsel? The Vega was Chevy's contribution to that game. I think unreasonable expectations are part of the problem here. If I'm looking at someone's scratchbuilt whatever, it's usually over-the-top modeling at its best. Do I expect a mass-produced item to be comparable? Not really. The main reason is that would make models cost so much that...well the board would implode with the angry words exchanged about who is to blame. Heck, $40 freight car is practically the death knell of our hobby over on the MR forum right now. The idea that a $40 car is a dangerous thing is news to those of us in narrowgauge. Which is kinda interesting. We've had $40 and higher rtr cars for some time now thanks to Blackstone. Funny thing is I don't think I've heard a peep about them costing too much. In fact, people are very glad to get them. Very odd compared to here, don't you think? But we narrowgaugers all know what the alternative is -- build it yourself. When narrowgaugers see a RTR car, the first thing we think of is what we could do with all the extra hours that won't be spent building it. The first thing many who model only in standard gauge seem to think is that is must cost too much. My sympathies to all you who just aren't having any fun No I don't think that. Narrow gauge was and is a niche market with very specific cars for very specific small niche railroads. As a logical result the market is small and specialized and requires small runs and higher prices. Everyone knows that about narrow gauge. Just like traction. Why do you care what standard gauge people think if you don't model it? How is it you conclude that the majority of hobbyists are not having any fun in the hobby? How do you know this? Don't you think it is pompous and insulting to proclaim your niche superior and that all others are not having fun? Who is exchanging "angry word" on this topic? I don't see any. |
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Post by atsfan on Jan 12, 2014 8:38:54 GMT -8
Yes, you are making a mistake.
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Post by jlwii2000 on Jan 12, 2014 9:06:13 GMT -8
Probably because those manufacturers make so many mistakes - like paint and printing errors, quality control misses, and also under and over-production of various items... Getting a paint job right should be much simpler than the proper pricing or production numbers, but yet most can't even get that right. Hmmm, most paint is wrong nowadays? I guess it's a good thing there was no internet back in the day, because there sure would have been plenty to talk about then. Besides, I don't need perfection to satisfy, just a good representation, sort of like a...model. I guess if anyone ever did produce that exquisitely perfect model, it would sell millions. Until then, most models are held back by their paint jobs, I suppose. Imagine what a perfect model would cost? Don't worry, price would be no object with a perfect model. And they'll still sell a million. And when someone does come up with the Perfect Sales Predictor, he'll not only have the entire model railroad industry beating down his door, but every manufacturing outfit on Earth. There are bad examples out there that make an overrun of a few hundred locos look like the peanuts it is. Ever hear of the Edsel? The Vega was Chevy's contribution to that game. I think unreasonable expectations are part of the problem here. If I'm looking at someone's scratchbuilt whatever, it's usually over-the-top modeling at its best. Do I expect a mass-produced item to be comparable? Not really. The main reason is that would make models cost so much that...well the board would implode with the angry words exchanged about who is to blame. Heck, $40 freight car is practically the death knell of our hobby over on the MR forum right now. The idea that a $40 car is a dangerous thing is news to those of us in narrowgauge. Which is kinda interesting. We've had $40 and higher rtr cars for some time now thanks to Blackstone. Funny thing is I don't think I've heard a peep about them costing too much. In fact, people are very glad to get them. Very odd compared to here, don't you think? But we narrowgaugers all know what the alternative is -- build it yourself. When narrowgaugers see a RTR car, the first thing we think of is what we could do with all the extra hours that won't be spent building it. The first thing many who model only in standard gauge seem to think is that is must cost too much. My sympathies to all you who just aren't having any fun Do you know when I gave up on the concept of a perfect model? The Overland Boy Scout unit. Only 15 were produced.....15 and the factory made an obvious mistake. They painted the 2 in 2010 the wrong color. I don't blame any one person for the goof up but at that point I gave up on the perfect model concept. Especially considering that locomotive cost a ton of money.
Now I don't mind a model not being perfect anymore. I welcome things like the Kato P42 where I have to add mirrors and windshield wipers with a separately purchased kit. It's kind of fun and it helps me feel more like I'm modeling something since I don't weather or do crazy good scenery.
There are still those manufacturers that are leaps and bounds ahead of others in terms of detail though, and still want to charge the same prices. I hope that gets better with time.
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Post by mlehman on Jan 12, 2014 9:32:36 GMT -8
[/p] Now I don't mind a model not being perfect anymore. I welcome things like the Kato P42 where I have to add mirrors and windshield wipers with a separately purchased kit. It's kind of fun and it helps me feel more like I'm modeling something since I don't weather or do crazy good scenery.
SNIP
[/quote] James, Excellent point. This is, after all, a hobby. Some people just collect and I have no problem with folks who do Lionel, MTH, whatever. But what you're speaking about doing is, pardon the term if it's too strong for some  -- modelling. Others just see it as an opportunity to gripe about a less than perfect model. |
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Post by jlwii2000 on Jan 12, 2014 11:05:06 GMT -8
I think one of the root causes for so much difference in opinion is personal value of a dollar and personality type. Person A might want his $250 to produce the perfect locomotive because $250 is a lot of money to him and he's anal retentive. I used to be person A. Person B may be completely complacent and not care if details and sizes are way out of wack because the locomotive does one thing that he just loves. Person C may be somewhere in the middle. They know that the price is not low so they demand a good model, but know that all the human processes behind the models various stages of development and production will probably not allow for a perfect model. So they put up with some things, but will draw the line if things get out of hand. I'm now person C. How did I go from being person A to person C? I got to know the process of producing a model and realized there are 4 billions areas for mistakes to happen. Even if every single thing is done flawlessly up until the little Chinese lady puts a piece of the locomotive on....if she puts a big plop of glue on the piece or misses the piece or gets tired and messes up the piece over and over again on the production line then all hell breaks lose for some modelers. Once I got out of my armchair quarterbacking mode and researched all the steps of the process, I was just amazed any models make it to us with minor errors. |
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Post by mlehman on Jan 12, 2014 11:24:55 GMT -8
SNIP I got to know the process of producing a model and realized there are 4 billions areas for mistakes to happen. Even if every single thing is done flawlessly up until the little Chinese lady puts a piece of the locomotive on....if she puts a big plop of glue on the piece or misses the piece or gets tired and messes up the piece over and over again on the production line then all hell breaks lose for some modelers. Once I got out of my armchair quarterbacking mode and researched all the steps of the process, I was just amazed any models make it to us with minor errors. Yes, I think that's a good perspective, as you say opinions differ. All I can say is if you expect the world to be perfect, you're gonna be disappointed every day of your life. No point in even getting our of bed, let alone logging on to gripe about it...well, I take that last part back, as it seems that IS worth getting out of bed for with some. That's OK, too. Takes all kinds. But I think it's important to to note that a few things that some obsess about are really outliers in the land of model railroading. The thing that gets me is having perfect expectations, expecting them to be fulfilled by others, but only if they do it really, really cheap. Models used to be strictly a rich man's hobby. WWII and the vets who came back and took advantage of various GI benefits started most of what we know as the affordable model railroading since were the key to changing that. But there will always be models like that. Take the "too expensive $40 car" discussion on MR. It's like they never even heard of brass before. No one says brass will be the death of model railroading. No, they just extend the argument we have about everyday model railroad items and extend it there. But why SHOULD brass be cheap? It's special stuff made in small runs. And even plastic is a lot like that now, but still cheaper. People want detail? You got it. And you have to pay for it. And if you really appreciate the labor and skill that goes into something because of your personal experience, not just as a consumer, but as a creator, then you get why things like that aren't cheap. That why I brought up narrowgauge, not to stir things up, but just to point out what a difference there is in the conversations these two groups have. A Blackstone HOn3 RTR boxcar that was $30 when first introduced is now $68 ($76 if you want it weathered). Hardly a peep out of anyone. Even when we have our consumer hat on, we can look and see what goes into it. Would we settle for less? Maybe, a little, but not much. It goes with being NG. |
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Post by curtmc on Jan 12, 2014 12:32:03 GMT -8
Actually yes I have been looking for a replacement for my 2009 SUV... And I can get a new one, same model, same package level, but now with better mpg for about 5% more than I paid for the 2009 model when it was new in 2008. And the 2014 has many more features that the 2009 doesn't.
On the other hand, CSX RTR bethgon 5-packs by Athearn - same cars in same paint scheme have gone up nearly 90% (yes, nearly doubled, even accounting for inflation) in the same time period.
And people like you Mike who just take the outrageous price increases in stride - perhaps because you are used to them in the little narrow gauge niche market that is not the majority market in HO trains - are among the reasons the manufacturers think they can skyjack the prices...
And you also have two major details wrong about the marketplace... (1) A motor vehicle is pretty much a necessity of life for most Americans (especially those without mass transit options) whereas model trains certainly are not, and (2) in many cases in this hobby it is NOT about what you can afford or not, it is more about what you are willing to pay. Just because I can afford every item that a particular manufacturer is bringing out in the next 3-6 months does not mean that I am going to buy a single one, much less all of them.
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Post by curtmc on Jan 12, 2014 12:40:37 GMT -8
James, it wasn't too long ago that there were quality control inspections that kept such items from making it to the consumer, and sub-contractors (even Chinese ones) that had internal quality control measures to prevent it - because they did not want their buyer (the manufacturer) to see low quality in what they were producing...
Model trains were being made in Asia for the US market before you were born. What has changed are the percentage being done there, the prices (where the actual cost of production is still likely in the range of 20-25% of MSRP), and the quality control (or lack thereof) on the part of the manufacturers and (more often) their sub-contractors. There also used to be four levels of the supply chain (builder, importer, distributor and dealer) to identify and weed out what few low quality products made it into the distribution chain, but now most of that quality control is gone too...
I told one manufacturer about a major production error on one of their items last year, and they had to go find one at a local hobby shop to see it, as that company's production items don't even go through their doors anymore - straight from Asia to their sole distribution point - thousands of miles away from where they did the production artwork (and are attempting to do quality control).
The streamlining done to maximize profits has in effect made most of the quality control difficult to impossible, and these days too often there isn't anybody who really checks the quality before the consumer takes it out of the box. And then if the consumer does find an error, there often isn't adequate production supply made to get them a replacement. That setup is destined for problems, and the manufacturers are going to burn to their failure if they don't get it straightened out...
PS. Did you ask OMI if they would correct that unit? I know they corrected at least one of them...
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2014 13:33:58 GMT -8
Hmmm, most paint is wrong nowadays? I guess it's a good thing there was no internet back in the day, because there sure would have been plenty to talk about then. Besides, I don't need perfection to satisfy, just a good representation, sort of like a...model. My sympathies to all you who just aren't having any fun Might condescending don't ya' think? Without getting into the inflation, wages, etc. web of misery, back in the 1980's an Athearn SD40-2 cost $25 and if you knew what you were getting. Today the Athearn is over $200 and its like Forest Gump's box of chocolates when you open the box "you never what you are going to get". Because of the internet, historical societies and all other forms of documentation, getting the paint right on a model should be a given, not a close enough. If an Athearn, Bowser, Atlas, etc. doesn't know reach out and make sure. The resources are there to be tapped. But instead out intrepid manufacturers many times play the part of lone wolf and bull ahead with what they "think" instead of asking questions and getting it right....the first time. A few years ago Athearn screwed up some Norfolk Southern model so badly, it offered up replacement shells with the corrected paint! People are having fun, its just that when you plunk a couple of big headed Ben's along with a couple of Jackson's for ONE choo-choo, your expectations are raised a whole lot more than a model that cost a single Jackson and a Lincoln. |
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Post by jlwii2000 on Jan 12, 2014 13:40:45 GMT -8
James, it wasn't too long ago that there were quality control inspections that kept such items from making it to the consumer, and sub-contractors (even Chinese ones) that had internal quality control measures to prevent it - because they did not want their buyer (the manufacturer) to see low quality in what they were producing... Model trains were being made in Asia for the US market before you were born. What has changed are the percentage being done there, the prices (where the actual cost of production is still likely in the range of 20-25% of MSRP), and the quality control (or lack thereof) on the part of the manufacturers and (more often) their sub-contractors. There also used to be four levels of the supply chain (builder, importer, distributor and dealer) to identify and weed out what few low quality products made it into the distribution chain, but now most of that quality control is gone too... I told one manufacturer about a major production error on one of their items last year, and they had to go find one at a local hobby shop to see it, as that company's production items don't even go through their doors anymore - straight from Asia to their sole distribution point - thousands of miles away where where they did the production artwork (and are attempting to do quality control). The streamlining done to maximize profits has in effect made most of the quality control difficult to impossible, and these days too often there isn't anybody who really checks the quality before the consumer takes it out of the box. And then if the consumer does find an error, there often isn't adequate production supply made to get them a replacement. That setup is destined for problems, and the manufacturers are going to burn to their failure if they don't get it straightened out... Well, I agree with you on most points including that there should be more quality control. I know Athearn recently hired a QC person for the U.S. and Intermountain runs every model but still a lot slips through. The price thing is hard to understand, but the higher the price the longer I wait for the product or whoever has the highest discount if I want it bad enough wins. Some hobby shops are only pocketing 5% or less so they can move product. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2014 13:46:24 GMT -8
I think one of the root causes for so much difference in opinion is personal value of a dollar and personality type. Person A might want his $250 to produce the perfect locomotive because $250 is a lot of money to him and he's anal retentive. I used to be person A. Person B may be completely complacent and not care if details and sizes are way out of wack because the locomotive does one thing that he just loves. Person C may be somewhere in the middle. They know that the price is not low so they demand a good model, but know that all the human processes behind the models various stages of development and production will probably not allow for a perfect model. So they put up with some things, but will draw the line if things get out of hand. I'm now person C. How did I go from being person A to person C? I got to know the process of producing a model and realized there are 4 billions areas for mistakes to happen. Even if every single thing is done flawlessly up until the little Chinese lady puts a piece of the locomotive on....if she puts a big plop of glue on the piece or misses the piece or gets tired and messes up the piece over and over again on the production line then all hell breaks lose for some modelers. Once I got out of my armchair quarterbacking mode and researched all the steps of the process, I was just amazed any models make it to us with minor errors. A couple of years ago when I wanted a Genesis Milwaukee Road FP7A, I picked through four models to find one which was the lesser of all evils. One had the Farr grill badly bent. The second, had glue globs in many different areas where the CA had crazed the paint. The third, had a hole drilled in the side where the factory had made a mistake. On that engine the factory just drilled another hole and installed the part. Two of those models should never had made it across the pond. The mangled grille and the holes to nowhere is totally unacceptable quality control. Seeing that one of these models with sound costs about as much as a Dyson vacuum cleaner, Dyson would be crucified for such piss poor quality control, yet we as model railroaders are somehow supposed to give the Athearn, etc. factory a pass because these models are so difficult to produce? Maybe we need to get back to the day of generic kits. It sure would stop some of the complaining about lack of quality control. Then people would complain that they have to assemble the model and some would complain that they are incapable of assembling the model. No matter what is done, there are going to be unhappy people. But by and large the lack of quality control by the model train manufacturers is the biggest problem and there really should be no free pass on that issue. |
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Post by WP 257 on Jan 12, 2014 13:59:20 GMT -8
Sorry to read about the FP7A, yet that is exactly why I've given up on anything Genesis. I'd rather buy a "mostly detailed" unit from somebody else that has better QA/QC. I was miffed by too many poor quality Genesis models--GP15's were nice but still had too many issues.
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Post by mlehman on Jan 12, 2014 15:33:05 GMT -8
Hmmm, most paint is wrong nowadays? I guess it's a good thing there was no internet back in the day, because there sure would have been plenty to talk about then. Besides, I don't need perfection to satisfy, just a good representation, sort of like a...model. My sympathies to all you who just aren't having any fun Might condescending don't ya' think? Jim, Trying hard not to be. But when folks go nuclear over a grabiron loose in the box, well, It's hard for me to take them really seriously. Obviously some issues are serious. I did not suggest things that are just wrong or you should not send it back for credit if it's not suitable for sale when removed from the packaging. But the price of absolute happiness is far higher than I think many assume. On the other hand, getting it substantially right isn't rocket science either. The QC issue is largely tangential to the price issue anyway. Where it makes a difference is when people return the FAILs. Keep returning them, do it religiously, Don't accept it. Makes sure its a cost taken into account when they set prices. But this last reason is the main one where it's not going to help prices.. Better QC will cost more. Unless you've got a system that exempts model railroading from the laws of the manufacturing universe. Without getting into the inflation, wages, etc. web of misery, back in the 1980's an Athearn SD40-2 cost $25 and if you knew what you were getting. Today the Athearn is over $200 and its like Forest Gump's box of chocolates when you open the box "you never what you are going to get". Because of the internet, historical societies and all other forms of documentation, getting the paint right on a model should be a given, not a close enough. If an Athearn, Bowser, Atlas, etc. doesn't know reach out and make sure. The resources are there to be tapped. But instead out intrepid manufacturers many times play the part of lone wolf and bull ahead with what they "think" instead of asking questions and getting it right....the first time. A few years ago Athearn screwed up some Norfolk Southern model so badly, it offered up replacement shells with the corrected paint! People are having fun, its just that when you plunk a couple of big headed Ben's along with a couple of Jackson's for ONE choo-choo, your expectations are raised a whole lot more than a model that cost a single Jackson and a Lincoln. Yes, they should get things substantially right. There plenty of reason to do so and little but excuses not to. On the other hand, take curtmc recent comments about which color the steps on CSX units should be painted. He thinks every one should be painted as delivered and that this detail is intrinsic to a properly painted CSX unit. OK, but that's the first I've ever heard of it, which doesn't mean curtmc is the only one to feel that way, but...really, is a unit WRONG if not done to to curtmc's specs? I think that's a stretch, but I'm sure he differs. I'm not saying accept the unacceptable. Heck, I'm in narrowgauge. There's some standards around here.  But this "consumer model railroader" model is a very different thing from folks who actually still put their hands on models, like you. It's "Show me the money!" Because there's one sure way to fix bad products and that's not to buy them. It's not talking about how unhappy you are about buying them. |
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Post by mlehman on Jan 12, 2014 15:51:04 GMT -8
Actually yes I have been looking for a replacement for my 2009 SUV... And I can get a new one, same model, same package level, but now with better mpg for about 5% more than I paid for the 2009 model when it was new in 2008. And the 2014 has many more features that the 2009 doesn't. I would like to think the model railroad industry is a good comparison to the auto industry, but I think the difference in scale is something like 10,000:1. Things just don't stack up very well with comparisons. On the other hand, CSX RTR bethgon 5-packs by Athearn - same cars in same paint scheme have gone up nearly 90% (yes, nearly doubled, even accounting for inflation) in the same time period. And people like you Mike who just take the outrageous price increases in stride - perhaps because you are used to them in the little narrow gauge niche market that is not the majority market in HO trains - are among the reasons the manufacturers think they can skyjack the prices... Yep, NG is a tiny market. I think you're imaging the rest of the MRR market as being much larger than it really is. There's little competition, except when manufacturers choose to go head to head. Then you can get 29 different flavors in F units. And they're hard to compare, too. And you also have two major details wrong about the marketplace... (1) A motor vehicle is pretty much a necessity of life for most Americans (especially those without mass transit options) whereas model trains certainly are not, and (2) in many cases in this hobby it is NOT about what you can afford or not, it is more about what you are willing to pay. Just because I can afford every item that a particular manufacturer is bringing out in the next 3-6 months does not mean that I am going to buy a single one, much less all of them. As a non-necessity of life, unfortunately, our stuff will never have the same narrow profit margins and high volume that other consumer products thrive on. Good that you bring it it, as it does tend to undercut the argument that any of us NEED prices to be lower. It's just that we prefer they were. As for the gap between what one can afford and what one can pay, that's at the root of a lot of this quite sterile bellyaching. What difference does it make if I wanted to complain about a near 300% increase in the price of a boxcar? Blackstone will still sell every one they make. And I have some kits here if I really want one and can't afford to buy a RTR. Do I see a problem? No, it's just a tradeoff between time and money. Do I need to feel like I get a deal when I do buy some? Sure, that's the 20% off I'll get from my favorite pusher. Makes me happy. Do I need the contractors in China to work their folks harder, for the importer to lay off the kid sweeping the floor at the warehouse, squeeze the LHS a little more, all to cut the price on something a buck or two and still have to listen to people gripe about how overpriced and under-QCed it is? Sure I could do all that or I could just keep making stuff that sells. If you want to make a difference, write a note to the folks whose products it is. Want to just complain ineffectually, then same old should work fine. If you want something done about it, start a website that tracks QC issues or a national boycott of whoever is the worst offender. That might make a difference. As it is, this is like reading the world's worst edition of Consumer Reports...on Groundhog Day...Over and over and over and over. Folks that unhappy need a lawyer and a lawsuit to make them feel better (not that that's a good idea, it's just another solution our society offers for the truly aggrieved.) Letting other folks listen in should be optional. |
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Besides, I don't need perfection to satisfy, just a good representation, sort of like a...model. 