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Post by GP40P-2 on Jan 23, 2015 14:35:36 GMT -8
ARF or Bachmann forum..... Ummm no on the Bachmann. However I do believe that there is a population out there that does not reside on the ARF (or Bachmann for that matter).
Better yet, why don't we just "Ask the Bach-Man"!!!
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Post by GP40P-2 on Jan 23, 2015 14:55:56 GMT -8
Interesting that in both polls, 1st place is "I am happy with what is available" by a pretty good margin.
In the first poll, a mid-range priced (I should have called it that in the poll) is 3rd, while the high-end is 2nd place. In this poll, the under $200 is running 2nd place to the 1st Place "No I do not need another SD40-2", and the high-end $200 and $300+ categories combined tie with the under $200 category.
Damn statistics, I thought that I would be safe forgetting all that from school. And now I get involved with an SD40-2 pool with obvious sampling issues, a price sensitivity trend, and a who knows what else that I don't want to know about on a Friday afternoon. Time to go run a train or ride a bike.
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Post by calzephyr on Jan 23, 2015 15:02:43 GMT -8
This poll has 85 votes by 85 voters. Sounds like it is working correctly.
I wonder how many of us have bicycles that cost more than $1000. My bicycles came from Walmart and were a bargain, but I do not race or do long rides.
Larry
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Post by riogrande on Jan 23, 2015 15:57:10 GMT -8
I've tried a number of other train forums but Atlas Rescue, Model Railroader and Train Orders and Train Board are the ones I check the most. There are a few others but they seem to have mostly beginners or are not very active.
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Post by Brakie on Jan 23, 2015 16:57:16 GMT -8
I've tried a number of other train forums but Atlas Rescue, Model Railroader and Train Orders and Train Board are the ones I check the most. There are a few others but they seem to have mostly beginners or are not very active. Jim,If I may..A lot of forums has members that just enjoy the hobby even if they use AHM,Tyco and other train set cars..Others model with Athearn BB,Accurail,Roundhouse and other second tier models and then there are those that want only the best of the best..No worries everybody is enjoying the hobby. There's another type but,we would mention them.
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Post by kentuckysouthernrwy on Jan 23, 2015 19:31:54 GMT -8
With all the quality issues everyone reports with Genesis, why is that held up to be the be all and end all of what anyone wants?
I have only one Genesis, an F-3 with a Tsunami decoder in it, probably my least favorite loco. The 'chicken wire' won't stay in place and the sound....terrible, but not a Genesis issue.
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Post by curtmc on Jan 24, 2015 18:58:06 GMT -8
With another round of price increases expected this year, newer locomotives for under $300 MSRP may become a thing of the past in next couple of years. Looking at the results thus far, seems that there is a steep drop in interest at the higher level.
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Post by riogrande on Jan 24, 2015 20:33:53 GMT -8
With all the quality issues everyone reports with Genesis, why is that held up to be the be all and end all of what anyone wants? I have only one Genesis, an F-3 with a Tsunami decoder in it, probably my least favorite loco. The 'chicken wire' won't stay in place and the sound....terrible, but not a Genesis issue. I can't speak to the sound cause all my Genesis F units are silent but as far as fidelity to the prototype, it's pretty universally agreed that the Athearn Genesis F unit is the best in HO. I have to agree with this. So far from what I'm seeing with the Genesis GP40 line and SDP45 line, I can understand why Genesis is being held up as a standard to be matched. In terms of tooling, the a fore mentioned models are the "be all and end all". Some have had issues with assembly or damage, but the tooling and fidelity is mostly top notch. Perhaps some can help you find an adhesive that will re-attach the chicken wire grills on your F3.
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Post by curtmc on Jan 28, 2015 18:26:51 GMT -8
OK, the week long poll is over... Even in this forum of mostly detail oriented modelers most are satisfied with the current SD40-2 offerings.
Yes, there are some who would be interested in a new high grade SD40-2 offering at less than $200 retail, but that interest sharply declines above $300 (a retail price we may see announcements reaching by end of 2016).
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Post by atsfan on Jan 28, 2015 18:33:00 GMT -8
OK, the week long poll is over... Even in this forum of mostly detail oriented modelers most are satisfied with the current SD40-2 offerings. Yes, there are some who would be interested in a new high grade SD40-2 offering at less than $200 retail, but that interest sharply declines above $300 (a retail price we may see announcements reaching by end of 2016). Interest in ANY new engine will decline sharply if priced above $300.........
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Post by onequiknova on Jan 28, 2015 18:39:57 GMT -8
I take the results a bit different.
What I see is nearly 50% of voters are not happy with the current crop of SD40-2's. Your $300 price point is for sound units. Anyone who doesn't want sound is obviously not going to vote for the $2-300 MSRP price point.
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Post by bnsf971 on Jan 28, 2015 18:59:12 GMT -8
At the risk of having yet another poll started, how about a nice, simple poll: Do you want, and will you buy, a new Genesis level SD40-2? Yes. No.
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Post by curtmc on Jan 28, 2015 19:53:50 GMT -8
No, a simple yes-no poll would not be a good (valid) poll because you would have those making the incorrect assumption that a better all-new SD40-2 could be made at or below the cost of the present offerings... Which ain't happening. Therefore pricing levels need to be included in poll so that potential manufacturer could see the interest level based on pricing level.
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Post by Judge Doom on Jan 28, 2015 20:51:12 GMT -8
I take the results a bit different. What I see is nearly 50% of voters are not happy with the current crop of SD40-2's. Your $300 price point is for sound units. Anyone who doesn't want sound is obviously not going to vote for the $2-300 MSRP price point. Exactly, one needs to look at the data logically instead of who has the biggest bar. Essentially, if you produce an accurate well-detailed SD40-2 for under $200 (say, $189 or $199), you'll satisfy all the voters in the latter three categories: the people that want one under $200, the people that wouldn't mind one $200-300, and the people that wouldn't mind one at $300+. And, you'll probably get a few converts from the don't need one category picking one up or upgrading theirs if it's done well enough.
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Post by curtmc on Jan 29, 2015 17:36:36 GMT -8
I take the results a bit different. What I see is nearly 50% of voters are not happy with the current crop of SD40-2's. Your $300 price point is for sound units. Anyone who doesn't want sound is obviously not going to vote for the $2-300 MSRP price point. Incorrect, the $300 price point was for non-sound units... All the price points were for non-sound units, with sound units available at about $100 more. By the end of this year (or maybe next if we are lucky) all new release MSRP are going to likely be pushing $250/$350 or higher. Rapido is already at $225/$325 and TrueLine at $300/$350... (I'm leaving Athearn out as I've been told they aren't doing another SD40-2)
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Post by curtmc on Jan 29, 2015 17:40:44 GMT -8
Who's going to do one at that price if Athearn and IM are not? Bachmann? Model Power? Walthers TrainLine? Atlas Trainman? Will it be accurate, or accurate for one and incorrect for the rest?
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Post by atsfan on Jan 29, 2015 17:48:11 GMT -8
I take the results a bit different. What I see is nearly 50% of voters are not happy with the current crop of SD40-2's. Your $300 price point is for sound units. Anyone who doesn't want sound is obviously not going to vote for the $2-300 MSRP price point. Incorrect, the $300 price point was for non-sound units... All the price points were for non-sound units, with sound units available at about $100 more. By the end of this year (or maybe next if we are lucky) all new release MSRP are going to likely be pushing $250/$350 or higher. Rapido is already at $325/$425 and TrueLine at $300/$350... (I'm leaving Athearn out as I've been told they aren't doing another SD40-2) No that is incorrect. The $300 price was for sound. It is not logical to say a new engine is $425 and because of that price point people won't buy it and therefore there is no demand for that engine AT ALL. Keep the comparison equal. The SD40-2 would outsell the SDP45 by 10x if priced the same. Spinning the price higher to "prove" there isn't demand for an SD40-2 is misleading.
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Post by atsfan on Jan 29, 2015 17:49:48 GMT -8
Who's going to do one at that price if Athearn and IM are not? Bachmann? Model Power? Walthers TrainLine? Atlas Trainman? Will it be accurate, or accurate for one and incorrect for the rest? The same people who do it TODAY. Athearn, Walthers, MTH, Atlas Their non sound engines are priced at ........$189 or $199 !
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Post by atsfan on Jan 29, 2015 17:55:37 GMT -8
A standard SD40-2 fits on as many layouts as does an F unit, or Steam, or a GP7, etc. To say the era has moved on and today SD40-2 is not seen much, therefore it won't sell, means most model railroad products won't sell either ........
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Post by onequiknova on Jan 29, 2015 17:57:48 GMT -8
For an apples to apples comparison, Bowser's all new SD40-2 retails for $200 non sound. You expect prices to increase by $100.00 in the next 12 months? lol. OK.
Rapido and True Line offer odd ball models that appeal to a limited market and price them accordingly.
Are you by chance a politician?
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Post by Judge Doom on Jan 29, 2015 18:55:55 GMT -8
By the end of this year (or maybe next if we are lucky) all new release MSRP are going to likely be pushing $250/$350 or higher. Rapido is already at $325/$425 and TrueLine at $300/$350... (I'm leaving Athearn out as I've been told they aren't doing another SD40-2) Umm, what are you talking about? Do you even check your facts? The latest Rapido releases (the FL9) have been priced at $250 DC and $350 Sound/DCC, not the $325/$425 you claim. Why, it says so publicly right on their website: www.rapidotrains.com/fl9_ho.htmlTrue Line Train's next release is supposed to be the SW1200RS, priced at $229 DC and $349 DCC/Sound. Have a look: www.truelinetrains.ca/locomotives/ho---1200-rsAs far as I'm concerned, if Bowser can do a highly detailed Canadian SD40-2 with multiple body and phase variations and offer it for MSRP $199.95 (DC!), clearly it can be done by others. It's just a matter of someone filling that demand.
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Post by alcoc430 on Jan 29, 2015 19:43:04 GMT -8
Although I would not buy one, since I'm covered with Sd40-2s. A importer using the rapido model of higher priced smaller runs probably could make money at it. It makes the most sense if athearn or bowser would do it since they would have the most EMD cad details and trucks etc and can put a 3D of it pretty quickly. I know others have said that Athearn would not do it. But Athearn has already done the high price and small runs with the ddA40x and the u50.
But since Athearn is owned by venture Capitalists I doubt any one left after the mass exodus will stick their neck out.
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Post by alcoc430 on Jan 29, 2015 19:49:02 GMT -8
Actually would we even be having this conversation if athearn added thread plate, grated steps, fuel tank options (?) and a genesis drive during the last revision
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Post by curtmc on Jan 29, 2015 20:12:30 GMT -8
Typo on new Rapido price... Should have been $225/$325 (RDC). Now corrected. The point is that with Chinese labor getting significantly more expensive every few months, the price point of $300 MSRP non-sound units will probably be upon us within a few years...
As for the Bowser SD40-2, I bet there is some economy of similar production working to keep that price moderate ($200 MSRP) - since the builder is reportedly same as IM.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2015 21:05:39 GMT -8
I model 1970 - 1971 so I avoid all EMD -2s. That also means no SP T-2s, ATSF Yellow Bonnets, or UP "We Can Handle It" lettering.
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Post by llxlocomotives on Jan 29, 2015 21:08:54 GMT -8
Would I buy an SD40-2? Probably not. They are later than the era that I think I model. Having said that, if I were to buy one it would be DC, and I would not be interested in it if I can not get it for under $200, closer to $150.
I think the bell curve for model train prices is getting close to the peak. Like houses, stocks and any number of things.
The market will only bear so much beyond the historic levels with a modest inflation considered. Something always happens so the prices don't continue to climb forever.
It is sort of like $6 a gallon gasoline in the US. It won't happen in the near term. The money over $3.50 is used to find more supply, other alternatives or both. When the cost of gas goes up above a certain threshold, people figure out how to get by with less.
This same set of pressures will impact the price of model trains as well. When enough people stop buying because the price is so high, then the manufacturers will figure out how to bring the price down toward the more historic levels. When everyone is priced out of the market, there is no market.
I do not believe that model trains are going to go away. It's just that we have been in a kind of bubble in prices, much like we saw in stocks and housing. Those both burst and came back down to a more realistic level. Those events were more catostrophic than what will go on here, but the out come will be the same, the model designs will be more in line with a more reasonable price point. My crystal ball does not tell me exactly what they will be, just that equlibrium will occur.
Larry llxlocomotives.com
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2015 21:12:08 GMT -8
Typo on new Rapido price... Should have been $225/$325 (RDC). Now corrected. The point is that with Chinese labor getting significantly more expensive every few months, the price point of $300 MSRP non-sound units will probably be upon us within a few years... As for the Bowser SD40-2, I bet there is some economy of similar production working to keep that price moderate ($200 MSRP) - since the builder is reportedly same as IM. Why do you keep thinking that selling prices are driven by input expenses (labor, naterials, transport, etc.)? Selling prices are based on what people are willing to pay. There is no magic "black box" formula linking labor costs to selling prices. If people will pay X for a model, that's what it will be sold for. In most large companies, the people that set selling prices don't even know, nor care, what the company is paying for labor, material, or transport. Expenses and revenues are separate, they don't need to be linked to maximize revenue. Example- my input costs have recently gone down, should I lower my selling prices when people are still willing to pay what I'm currently asking? And vv....
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Post by curtmc on Jan 29, 2015 21:24:44 GMT -8
Omaha, that may be the case for you... But in the model railroading industry the costs are not going down. For some time now the manufacturers have been trying to hold the prices despite the rising costs of production. At some point the bubble bursts and they have to increase prices, even knowing it will likely knock sales volumes down. At that point the production costs are the driving factor... Some niche products will be listed at "the high price they're willing to pay" pricing, but for the most part the manufacturers try to keep the costs down (especially when higher pricing leads to lower reservation/production quantities than their builder's minimums and they are faced with decisions about making more than reserved vs. canceling the production)
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Post by scl1234 on Jan 30, 2015 5:16:02 GMT -8
I model 1970 - 1971 so I avoid all EMD -2s. That also means no SP T-2s, ATSF Yellow Bonnets, or UP "We Can Handle It" or "Pulling For You" lettering. The above (w/addition) is pretty much where my interests stand. Regarding the current pricing for SD40-2's, people are assuming (extrapolating to be exact) that a Genesis-level SD40-2 will be priced the same or close to other previously released Genesis models. I'd say this extrapolation is only valid if there aren't more than two or three equipment detail variations of this model. When a prototype has multiple equipment configurations over its life, and the manufacturer tries to mimic these variations, the cost goes up. Example: All SD40-2s came w/o ditch lights at delivery. Will the typical modeler want the as-delivered SD40-2? or one with ditch lights, a painted over road name (circa late '80's use), etc. All these changes serve as constraints to a model...which ultimately makes for a smaller market for each model manufactured, thus driving prices even higher. Constraints are a double-edged $word folks...manufacturers realize this and charge according to what the market will bear.
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Post by Judge Doom on Jan 30, 2015 5:27:50 GMT -8
I model 1970 - 1971 so I avoid all EMD -2s. That also means no SP T-2s, ATSF Yellow Bonnets, or UP "We Can Handle It" or "Pulling For You" lettering. The above (w/addition) is pretty much where my interests stand. Regarding the current pricing for SD40-2's, people are assuming (extrapolating to be exact) that a Genesis-level SD40-2 will be priced the same or close to other previously released Genesis models. I'd say this extrapolation is only valid if there aren't more than two or three equipment detail variations of this model. When a prototype has multiple equipment configurations over its life, and the manufacturer tries to mimic these variations, the cost goes up. Example: All SD40-2s came w/o ditch lights at delivery. Will the typical modeler want the as-delivered SD40-2? or one with ditch lights, a painted over road name (circa late '80's use), etc. All these changes serve as constraints to a model...which ultimately makes for a smaller market for each model manufactured, thus driving prices even higher. Constraints are a double-edged $word folks...manufacturers realize this and charge according to what the market will bear. There's already this kind of variation present and coming to the market: look at all the different variations in the Bowser undertaking of Canadian SD40-2's. www.bowser-trains.com/history/sd402loco.htmlwww.bowser-trains.com/new/gmdsd.htmlRight from their site: different nose lengths, different radiator grills, different fans, anticlimber/no anticlimber, different plows, different frames, ditch lights/no ditch lights, different blower versions, different hoods for vent and louvre configurations on the hood doors, different sill/frame versions, snow intakes/no snow intakes, etc. Not a small undertaking by a long shot. If Bowser can do a complex multi-variation SD40-2 for $199 DC street price each, Athearn, Atlas or one of the other big players can do it for around that price. Like I said X posts ago, an accurate top-notch SD40-2 with modular tooling is a license to print money: the SD40-2 is the F-unit of the 70's, with so many railroads and variations possible. And they have staying power, with appeal even to modern modelers as hundreds if not thousands continue to pry the rails on Class 1's, regionals, shortlines, leasing companies, etc today. You might not model that era, but a ton of others do, and many want a top-notch SD40-2. From all indications, Bowsers sales of Canadian units will probably be out of the park, and their best selling models ever (yes, beating out the C430's, C636's, and what is supposedly their best selling model to date: the Canadian C630M's).
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