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Post by riogrande on Jan 30, 2015 5:45:30 GMT -8
I don't know how this plays into it, but a company performance/reputation seems to be part of the mix too on success. For example, Intermountain, while pretty good at freight cars, has struggled to bring consistently good engines to market - it's a tough nut to crack as we've seen with them. This is why, while not perfect, Genesis has generally shown they have the HO diesel "chops" - at least in the design department, and now Rapido is really building a reputation of being top notch too. I don't own any Bowser but generally have read good things about them so expect that to continue. While Bowser and Intermountain may use the same factory, it appears that design and over-site is key here.
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Post by stevewagner on Jan 30, 2015 6:01:31 GMT -8
I concur as to the high quality of Rapido products. But a few years ago I was stuck with at least two InterMountain freight cars that I could have assembled substantially better than whoever actually did, and I haven't bought any more of theirs without having a chance to inspect them for myself.
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Post by riogrande on Jan 30, 2015 7:00:01 GMT -8
Steve - I am not aware of any company who has a perfect track record - Atlas had issues with their Centerbeams, I've had issues with ER Centerbeams, you with Intermountain too, but on the whole they aren't any worse than the other major brands - and on the whole quite good. Many can't inspect before they buy because well stocked LHS's are far away from many of us. Just saying ...
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2015 7:31:22 GMT -8
Omaha, that may be the case for you... But in the model railroading industry the costs are not going down. For some time now the manufacturers have been trying to hold the prices despite the rising costs of production. At some point the bubble bursts and they have to increase prices, even knowing it will likely knock sales volumes down. At that point the production costs are the driving factor... Some niche products will be listed at "the high price they're willing to pay" pricing, but for the most part the manufacturers try to keep the costs down (especially when higher pricing leads to lower reservation/production quantities than their builder's minimums and they are faced with decisions about making more than reserved vs. canceling the production) It's not about my costs going down or up. The same principle would (will) apply when my costs go up. I'm not going to use some "formula" to raise my prices based on my increased costs. I'm only concerned about how much my customers will pay so that I maximize my revenue. And that has nothing to do with my costs. Just stop and think about how expenses and revenues are not connected. The reason prices are going up is because people are willing to pay those prices.
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Post by Spikre on Jan 31, 2015 16:22:25 GMT -8
wow,over 2 to 1 don't want or need another SD40-2. so what does that do those who are keeping this dead horse afloat ? now will see what does happen in the next 36 months. Spikre
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Post by Judge Doom on Jan 31, 2015 22:11:22 GMT -8
wow,over 2 to 1 don't want or need another SD40-2. so what does that do those who are keeping this dead horse afloat ? now will see what does happen in the next 36 months. Spikre Wow, Spikre. It's more of a 50-50 split when you look at the whole thing overall and add those three columns of people that want a better detailed SD40-2 (which merely show some would be willing to pay more for it than others), but, ok...
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Post by atsfan on Feb 1, 2015 6:27:12 GMT -8
wow,over 2 to 1 don't want or need another SD40-2. so what does that do those who are keeping this dead horse afloat ? now will see what does happen in the next 36 months. Spikre Spike how many hundreds if time did you ask for an Erie Triplex ?
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Post by atsfan on Feb 1, 2015 6:30:36 GMT -8
I don't understand why people get bothered by people asking for an SD40-2.
Ok you don't want one.
But many do and I don't see why some are getting mad at that.
Hopefully this important engine seen in massive numbers for 30 years will be made and available the same way Alco 430 and 420 are, and SDP45 etc.
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Post by fiend540 on Feb 1, 2015 7:30:54 GMT -8
It's not the want that annoys people, it's that in every thread where we talk about xxx manufacturer thinking about or producing xxx locomotive certain people always pop into the threads about how the manufacturer is making a poor choice, that we need a Genesis quality SD40-2 and it will outsell/perform whatever the xxx locomotive based on made up stats that can't be proved one way or the other. It's the same with how a majority of the new product threads turn into a doom and gloom "prices are high, hobby is dying" crap, people get sick of reading the same posts from the same few people.
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Post by atsfan on Feb 1, 2015 8:16:27 GMT -8
It's not the want that annoys people, it's that in every thread where we talk about xxx manufacturer thinking about or producing xxx locomotive certain people always pop into the threads about how the manufacturer is making a poor choice, that we need a Genesis quality SD40-2 and it will outsell/perform whatever the xxx locomotive based on made up stats that can't be proved one way or the other. It's the same with how a majority of the new product threads turn into a doom and gloom "prices are high, hobby is dying" crap, people get sick of reading the same posts from the same few people. I have not seen anyone say the hobby is doomed As for high prices many people are noticing that. It is a factor radically changing the hobby today Changing Not dooming
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Post by curtmc on Feb 1, 2015 8:58:11 GMT -8
That is NOT what I have heard from the manufacturers... They try to keep the prices as low as possible. Whereas there are some who may pay higher prices ("willing to pay those prices"), the manufacturers know that for each dollar less that their MSRP will be, that the number of people willing to pay that lower price is higher...
When higher prices do not result in significantly less sales that is called an "inelastic" market (PED<1) in which more income and profit will be made from a higher price. When higher prices DO result in fewer sales, that is called an "elastic" market (PED>1) in which the lower price may result in higher income and profit IF the lower price results in higher sales numbers to overcome the lesser revenue per item the higher cost would have.
Most hobby items, including model trains, tend to follow the "elastic" market model and the manufacturers are aware of that.
For a popular high volume consumer item, where profits are never in question, then expenses and revenue can be considered separately, and the manufacturer goal would be to set the pricing where PED=1 (which is the point of highest revenue). However in the cases of low volume sales there is always the connecting business factor of revenue must be greater than expenses for a business to survive. If the market is not willing to pay a high enough price for an item to offset the costs of production (including the fixed overhead costs) then profits are not possible and manufacturing decisions get tougher...
All those companies that go out of business every year in various market sectors would love to have been in a market where expenses and revenue were NOT connected at all, and the "inconvenience" of revenue not being greater than expenses caused them to fail...
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Post by fiend540 on Feb 1, 2015 9:05:34 GMT -8
It's not the want that annoys people, it's that in every thread where we talk about xxx manufacturer thinking about or producing xxx locomotive certain people always pop into the threads about how the manufacturer is making a poor choice, that we need a Genesis quality SD40-2 and it will outsell/perform whatever the xxx locomotive based on made up stats that can't be proved one way or the other. It's the same with how a majority of the new product threads turn into a doom and gloom "prices are high, hobby is dying" crap, people get sick of reading the same posts from the same few people. I have not seen anyone say the hobby is doomed As for high prices many people are noticing that. It is a factor radically changing the hobby today Changing Not dooming i was speaking in generalities, and the people harping about raising prices/loss of LHS/preorder system certainly aren't painting a rosy picture of the direction they believe the hobby is going. It was just an example of how certain people derail threads by blasting the same old off topic message, much how you do in every new loco threads when it comes to a High quality sd40-2.
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Post by atsfan on Feb 1, 2015 9:23:30 GMT -8
I have not seen anyone say the hobby is doomed As for high prices many people are noticing that. It is a factor radically changing the hobby today Changing Not dooming i was speaking in generalities, and the people harping about raising prices/loss of LHS/preorder system certainly aren't painting a rosy picture of the direction they believe the hobby is going. It was just an example of how certain people derail threads by blasting the same old off topic message, much how you do in every new loco threads when it comes to a High quality sd40-2. Feel free to hide my boasts if you don't like them. I always like how someone else is "blasting" if they say something the person don't agree with. I have never said the hobby is doomed To imply otherwise is not correct I don't think the disappearance of stores, pre order only, and large price increase are a good thing though. For me it is not horrible since an have plenty and will work on the layout building and layout which will be a simpler design to save costs and time. I also will spend more time train watching versus model buying. :-)
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Post by atsfan on Feb 1, 2015 9:27:24 GMT -8
If the price doubles sales will go down in terms of units or in terms of people willing to pay them.
It is a slippery slope companies need to careful of however.
A company that is happy keeping sales dollars the same by doubling prices and halving sales is out on that slope pretty far.
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Post by fiend540 on Feb 1, 2015 10:09:44 GMT -8
i was speaking in generalities, and the people harping about raising prices/loss of LHS/preorder system certainly aren't painting a rosy picture of the direction they believe the hobby is going. It was just an example of how certain people derail threads by blasting the same old off topic message, much how you do in every new loco threads when it comes to a High quality sd40-2. Feel free to hide my boasts if you don't like them. I always like how someone else is "blasting" if they say something the person don't agree with. I have never said the hobby is doomed To imply otherwise is not correct I don't think the disappearance of stores, pre order only, and large price increase are a good thing though. For me it is not horrible since an have plenty and will work on the layout building and layout which will be a simpler design to save costs and time. I also will spend more time train watching versus model buying. :-) You asked "I don't understand why people get bothered by people asking for an SD40-2", I just merely pointed out that it's not the want that's bothersome, its the manner in which you have used to voice that want that is bothering people.
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Post by roadkill on Feb 1, 2015 14:04:17 GMT -8
It's not about my costs going down or up. The same principle would (will) apply when my costs go up. I'm not going to use some "formula" to raise my prices based on my increased costs. I'm only concerned about how much my customers will pay so that I maximize my revenue. And that has nothing to do with my costs. Just stop and think about how expenses and revenues are not connected.The reason prices are going up is because people are willing to pay those prices. Uh, wait... WHAT? What business are you in that expenses and revenues are not related??? Having spent the majority of my working life in some form of wholesale/retail sales those two things are inextricably related. I work in Ford parts at a dealership... do you think for a minute that the Ford Motor Company just reaches into a jar full of numbers to set part cost? Believe me, it's not some made-up arbitrary number. There are so many factors that make up an item's cost that I can't even begin to list them here. And prices being set based on what people are willing to pay? Balderdash.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2015 14:58:31 GMT -8
It's not about my costs going down or up. The same principle would (will) apply when my costs go up. I'm not going to use some "formula" to raise my prices based on my increased costs. I'm only concerned about how much my customers will pay so that I maximize my revenue. And that has nothing to do with my costs. Just stop and think about how expenses and revenues are not connected.The reason prices are going up is because people are willing to pay those prices. Uh, wait... WHAT? What business are you in that expenses and revenues are not related??? Having spent the majority of my working life in some form of wholesale/retail sales those two things are inextricably related. I work in Ford parts at a dealership... do you think for a minute that the Ford Motor Company just reaches into a jar full of numbers to set part cost? Believe me, it's not some made-up arbitrary number. There are so many factors that make up an item's cost that I can't even begin to list them here. And prices being set based on what people are willing to pay? Balderdash. Balderdash? You have to be kidding. It's just basic economics, not complicated. I charge people according to what I think they will willingly pay, keeping in mind the "big picture" of not pissing them off so they go elsewhere or jsut don't buy. Aka I'm maximizing my revenue and net income. My costs / expenses (material, transportation, utilities, rents, etc) have nothing to do with my selling prices. If you think they do, please clearly explain the connection.When you go to sell your house and are determining your asking price, do you consider expenses like how much you paid for it, interest, improvements, taxes, less rental income, depreciation, etc? No, you simply base the price on how much you think a buyer will pay for it, usually based on comprable sales. Your expenses have zero connection to your selling price. If a company finds, say through market research, that they could raise prices 5 percent with no loss of sales. Their expenses remain unchanged. Should they raise prices? According to you, no, because selling prices are determined by expenses. Another example- if a company's expenses go up 10 percent shouuld they raise prices 10 percent if that increase would result in a 15 percent decrease in sales, thus lowering income? According to you, yes, because selling prices are determined by expenses. etc...
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Post by curtmc on Feb 1, 2015 17:06:21 GMT -8
Omaharoad, it is pretty clear that you have never run, or even been involved with the management of, a business in your life... (And I would bet never had a college level economics class either). Selling a house is far different than trying to sell merchandise (and by the way, unless you sell a house for more than you owe on it - your expense - then you are not going to make any money and have to take money to the settlement table - an issue many had when the real estate bubble burst)... The situation you describe where raising prices would not result in any lost sales would be a totally inelastic market which is certainly not the case in model trains...
If expenses go up 10% and your margin is less than 10% you have to raise prices, no matter if you lose sales, or else you'll be losing money on every single sale...
The very first rule of business is that the price you charge has to be more than your expenses in making the item... If it is not, you lose money, your revenue is expended, and your business fails.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2015 17:45:24 GMT -8
Omaharoad, it is pretty clear that you have never run, or even been involved with the management of, a business in your life... (And I would bet never had a college level economics class either). Selling a house is far different than trying to sell merchandise (and by the way, unless you sell a house for more than you owe on it - your expense - then you are not going to make any money and have to take money to the settlement table - an issue many had when the real estate bubble burst)... The situation you describe where raising prices would not result in any lost sales would be a totally inelastic market which is certainly not the case in model trains... If expenses go up 10% and your margin is less than 10% you have to raise prices, no matter if you lose sales, or else you'll be losing money on every single sale... The very first rule of business is that the price you charge has to be more than your expenses in making the item... If it is not, you lose money, your revenue is expended, and your business fails. I own my own business now, and have had my own consulting business for 20+ years off & on when not working at railroads or as a transportation planner. My last rail gig was as a marketing director (setting rates, revenue analysis, assistant to the VP marketing & sales) for a large railroad. No one in the entire marketing & sales department cared a wit about anything on the expense side (labor, fuel, maintenance, capital projects, etc)- zip. We're talking VP level. Except for the "fuel surcharge" (a scam excuse to raise certain rates), rates were not set based on expenses. Yes, I thought it went without saying that your revenues has to be more than your expenses to stay in business. That just sets a cutoff level, it doesn't pricing to maximize revenue or income. It has nothing to do with setting prices (other than they need to exceed revenues). And it's not "the price you charge", it's revenues. And not "expenses in making the item.". It's the overall expenses and revenues that count- lots of companies sell "items" for less than they cost to make. Care to explain the connection between expenses and revenues other than that? I was a business major for 2 years before switching to and graduating in urban geography, so yes, I've had multiple econ classes. BTW, what's your degree in?
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Post by atsfan on Feb 1, 2015 18:26:59 GMT -8
Feel free to hide my boasts if you don't like them. I always like how someone else is "blasting" if they say something the person don't agree with. I have never said the hobby is doomed To imply otherwise is not correct I don't think the disappearance of stores, pre order only, and large price increase are a good thing though. For me it is not horrible since an have plenty and will work on the layout building and layout which will be a simpler design to save costs and time. I also will spend more time train watching versus model buying. :-) You asked "I don't understand why people get bothered by people asking for an SD40-2", I just merely pointed out that it's not the want that's bothersome, its the manner in which you have used to voice that want that is bothering people. It is amazing we don't have a Genesis Quality SD40-2 in 2015. That is a fact. If me saying it bothers you then please just move on.
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Post by atsfan on Feb 1, 2015 18:30:34 GMT -8
Omaharoad, it is pretty clear that you have never run, or even been involved with the management of, a business in your life... (And I would bet never had a college level economics class either). Selling a house is far different than trying to sell merchandise (and by the way, unless you sell a house for more than you owe on it - your expense - then you are not going to make any money and have to take money to the settlement table - an issue many had when the real estate bubble burst)... The situation you describe where raising prices would not result in any lost sales would be a totally inelastic market which is certainly not the case in model trains... If expenses go up 10% and your margin is less than 10% you have to raise prices, no matter if you lose sales, or else you'll be losing money on every single sale... The very first rule of business is that the price you charge has to be more than your expenses in making the item... If it is not, you lose money, your revenue is expended, and your business fails. While you correct a key variable is not mentioned. Revenue must exceed expenses Not "what you charge" Revenue is price x quantity Two variables Clearly model train companies think sales quantity is going to go down hence they charge more Simple math
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Post by rockfan on Feb 1, 2015 21:42:47 GMT -8
I think a Genesis SD40-2 will be done. Think about this.....
GP38-2.
P2K. Athearn RTR. Atlas trainman.
Athearn won't do a Genesis GP38-2
But they did it.
That and all the EMD GP and SD's they have done, they have the tools to make the SD40-2.
The best selling unit EMD had and we don't have a Genesis SD40-2 in HO?
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Post by Spikre on Feb 2, 2015 12:01:29 GMT -8
Mr. Judge, threw out the votes for under $200.00,as that would be Clearance sales for a Genesis SD40-2,not "Got to Have It" sales. $200-$300.00---18 votes over $300.00----4 votes. so that is 22 votes to No's 47 votes. when/if a Genesis SD40-2 gets made,the true Sales picture will emerge. Edit -- what has been said here is that if a New SD40-2 isn't by Genesis Most wont be happy with it. re- the Complaints already concerning Bowser's GMDD SD40-2. Spikre
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Post by curtmc on Feb 2, 2015 18:08:58 GMT -8
Rockfan, I would not count on similar decisions as redoing the GP38-2/40-2/50 being repeated, as the management at Athearn at the time that decision was made have left the company (their decisions to chart a different path).
I have spoken to those who remain and they have told me they are not interested in remaking stuff already available or doing upgrades on items where they have a lot of competition in the HO marketplace... ES44AC and SD40-2 were two specific units I asked about and was told not to expect upgrades.
The GP38-2/40-2/50 tooling was 30+ years old, had not had any upgrades, and reportedly sales had dropped way off. That isn't the case yet for the RTR SD40-2 which has undergone upgrades in the past decade. The SD40 was redone due to damage to the prior tooling, and they took the opportunity to make some upgrades while keeping the unit in the RTR line.
Athearn has enough GP7/9, F-unit, GP38-2/40-2/50/40P-2, SD70M/MAC family and SD38/40 family units to keep them busy for many years. IF they do a SD40-2 upgrade I'm betting at least 3 years out IF sales of the RTR fall off (or tooling gets worn out/damaged), and then I would bet on a RTR upgrade (to include sound option) instead of Genesis do-over... And I would expect those complaining about the current offerings to be discontent with about any new SD40-2 if not absolutely perfect and under $100/200...(the shorter wheelbase isn't right... the correct wheelbase can't run on 18" radius... the stepwells were compromised for operation... the lights aren't LED or have the wrong tint if they are LED... they messed up on the walkway tread... the handrails are too big or if scale too thin and wavy... they aren't doing ditch lights or they are only doing ditch light equipped...)
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Post by atsfan on Feb 2, 2015 18:14:34 GMT -8
Mr. Judge, threw out the votes for under $200.00,as that would be Clearance sales for a Genesis SD40-2,not "Got to Have It" sales. $200-$300.00---18 votes over $300.00----4 votes. so that is 22 votes to No's 47 votes. when/if a Genesis SD40-2 gets made,the true Sales picture will emerge. Edit -- what has been said here is that if a New SD40-2 isn't by Genesis Most wont be happy with it. re- the Complaints already concerning Bowser's GMDD SD40-2. Spikre People say Genesis quality. Not made by them, necessarily.
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Post by curtmc on Feb 2, 2015 18:16:37 GMT -8
People wanting "Genesis quality" at Bachmann prices... No... Actually the way it all got around to "Genesis quality" is by the hopes of those that they will convince Athearn to do them, because they realize about anybody else is going to be lesser quality or higher pricing (or both).
Apparently there really isn't anybody out there like a Genesis quality manufacturer that wants to get into the SD40-2 game with 5 manufacturers already in it... and those already in the game are not looking to upgrade in such an already competitive field... and that is making the unsatisfied few livid and vocal.
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Post by bnsf971 on Feb 2, 2015 18:20:37 GMT -8
Just the typical folks wanting "Genesis quality" at Bachmann prices... Bachmann's GEVOs and 70ACes MSRP at $299.99 for sound units. Looks like we are getting Bachmann quality at Genesis prices already.
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Post by atsfan on Feb 2, 2015 18:37:44 GMT -8
People wanting "Genesis quality" at Bachmann prices... No... Actually the way it all got around to "Genesis quality" is by the hopes of those that they will convince Athearn to do them, because they realize about anybody else is going to be lesser quality or higher pricing (or both). Apparently there really isn't anybody out there like a Genesis quality manufacturer that wants to get into the SD40-2 game with 5 manufacturers already in it... and those already in the game are not looking to upgrade in such an already competitive field... and that is making the unsatisfied few livid and vocal. Well I don't see anyone livid I'm not Life is more precious than that. And everyone is saying Genesis quality and Genesis prices. Nobody is saying what you write about Bachmann prices. It is fairly basic. What I wish is that a company like Athearn could have spent the same money and charged the same prices for SD40-2 instead of the SDP45. And I doubt anyone thinks the sales of a SD40-2 would not be more than for the SDP45. I own an SDP45 but it is a one off. I am hoping Atlas gets back into the new engine game with one. Still not livid.
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Post by atsfan on Feb 2, 2015 18:39:56 GMT -8
Just the typical folks wanting "Genesis quality" at Bachmann prices... Bachmann's GEVOs and 70ACes MSRP at $299.99 for sound units. Looks like we are getting Bachmann quality at Genesis prices already. Misleading somewhat as massive discounts from list on Bachmann are easy to find. www.modeltrainstuff.com/Bachmann-HO-GE-ES44AC-NS-p/bac-65401.htm
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Post by curtmc on Feb 2, 2015 18:53:19 GMT -8
Those MBK prices didn't start that low (they were $224)... but are more of a reaction to the lack of demand of those lesser detailed units and a clearance price to attempt to get them out the door...
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